Earl Advisories

[Stormcenter]

Just a bit -- nothing major, IMO.

In my opinion "if" (looks like it might be)) Earl reforms it will be a major storm.The conditions are to ripe for it not to. By the way it has the makings of a large storm. Florida was fortunate Charley kind of shrunk in size when it entered the GOM otherwise there could have been a larger path of destruction..

[Nimbus]

Have you looked at the upper level climate lately? Good thing there is not a well developed storm where Earls remnants are. Big high centered over south Florida expanding into the western gulf. Shear down by 20 knots just west near 75 and an upper level low to the north venting the system.

[Anonymous]

Earl looks very threatenning to the US as a whole and maybe even Fla... Latest satellite shows images of what we saw a week agp with Charley... Things can change but this needs to be watched!!!!!!!!!!!

[Skywatch_NC]

I certainly pray and hope that Earl can't get his act together again!
The United States and other countries could do with a calm tropical season from here on out! Do I hear an AMEN?!

Eric

[kevin]

For now Earl is indeed dead, but Chavez is still alive and kicking.

[cycloneye]

16/1745 UTC 14.7N 72.7W T2.0/2.5 EARL -- Atlantic Ocean

Exact same position as from the iniciation of the tropical models.

[PurdueWx80]

The deep convection is not forming over the MCV - it is still lagging behind.

[cycloneye]

Easy my friend it will take time for it to organize not a rapid development thing here but with the models running the system means that something may develop in the next 12-24 hours but it is not a stone thing it will develop.I give it 70%-30% for it to redevelop at this time.

[wx247]

Chances for redevelopment are decent I believe.

[bfez1]

***Bump***

[PurdueWx80]

It is good (for the storm) to see that the environment is conducive for outflow in every area except the west. It seems that would indicate more westerly flow at upper levels, which would help it slow down. Also, this is hard to tell since the images are in half-hourly intervals, but I can almost see cumulus being pulled in towards the deepest convection from the SW side. If so, there is a lot more sfc convergence available to spin up a low level vort center. The MCV to the NW of the convection seems to be weakening, so it probably won't take over.

[Thunder44]

If new center is developing further north, than this means the storm could also track further north. People in the Gulf of Mexico, especially in the Western Gufl should keep watching this.

[ChaserUK]

Earl certainly does look like it bursting back into life - however, is this not just down to daytime heating?

[wx247]

Earl certainly does look like it bursting back into life - however, is this not just down to daytime heating?

I thought that tropical waves, depressions, etc. were driven by nocturnal changes... not afternoon heating. I thought that the thunderstorms expanded at night as the air above the warm waters (which don't lose heat as rapidly as land) cools off leaving a temperature difference that supports an increase in convection.

Am I off-base?

[snowflake]

I waiting to see what the local meteorologist will say at 5 o'clock.

[southerngale]

Where are you snowflake?

[Dave C]

Just ran a visable loop from floater and what appears to be a LLC is moving out of the western side of the convection straight towards the west around 15deg. You can also see an outflow boundry running out north of the convection with new storms firing along it. The main area of convection seems to have rotation(possible MLC) but that seems pretty low at about 13 deg, which unless things reorganize further north, would lead to everything moving into central America around Nicaraga. Anybody else see this?

[whereverwx]

Will "he" be a "she"? Frances?

[chadtm80]

No.. It will be Earl.. Same scenerio as Bonnie

[cycloneye]

The system has to overcome outflow boundarys,some SW shear,the center exposed as it is now and the MLC not coalocated with the LLC.If it overcomes all of that then we will have Earl again.