Danielle Advisories

[Steve H.]

Looking at the latest visible loops this afternoon, Danielle gives the appearance of a major hurricane. That would be 3 already. Does that mean we're done????

[lilbump3000]

If she does become a major one that will make 3, but just because they forecast 3 major ones, that doesnt mean we are only going to have 3 and thats it.

[HURAKAN]

Dvorak still says: 16/1800 UTC 18.9N 37.9W T5.0/5.0 DANIELLE -- Atlantic Ocean

Which is 105 mph.

[Aimless]

Oh ..wouldn't that be nice... filled our quota.. we are done.

[Steve H.]

That was a bit of sarcasm. Sandy, blast the T #'s, look at the concentric eye and the outflow. She's a thing of beauty

[Guest]

The GFs forecast model is looking worrysome. after Danielle turns NNW, the GFS has it turning SW. The BAM also has it turning SE at this time. However, NOGAPS, UKMET and GFDL still have it turning NNW, then NE. If it does indeed follow the GFS, we still have something to watch even if it does weaken by then.

[cycloneye]

Danielle Advisory Number 14


Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 16, 2004



at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane
Danielle was located near latitude 19.7 north...
longitude 38.6 west or about 995 miles...1600 km...
west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Danielle is moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph
...30 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours with a gradual turn to the north thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb...28.64 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...19.7 N... 38.6 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 970 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.

Forecaster Roberts/Lawrence

[Guest]

The GFS shows it recurving SW in a while. Hopefully this doesn't happen however. Right now, I think Danielle looks like a weak Cat 3.

[cycloneye]

Discussion at 5 PM:

Number 14


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 16, 2004



meteosat-8 visible and enhanced infrared imagery depict a more
asymmetric appearance over the past 6 hours with a small 10 nm
irregular eye. Imagery also reveals that the stronger convection is
confined to the western half of the system. Dvorak estimates from
TAFB...SAB...and AFWA T-numbers are 5.5...5.0...and 5.0
respectively. The enhanced bd curve infrared imagery indicated a
brief period...essentially on a single image from 18z...where a
T-number of 5.5 could have been determined. However...based on
current imagery...90 kt seems more reasonable at this point.

Initial motion is 330/16...with a continued north-northwestward
motion to expected to prevail during the next 24 hours. Model
guidance
indicates a gradual turn to the north beyond 36 hours with a recurve
toward the Azores through the remainder of the forecast period.
However...the GFS continues to show a motion to the left of the
consensus...suggesting an abrupt weakening trend as the tropical
cyclone moves beneath the upper southwesterlies associated with a
mid/upper level trough to the west. The official forecast is
similar to the previous one but slightly faster through 24 hours
and beyond... remaining consistent with the consensus but slightly
north of the 15z forecast.

A weakening trend is expected to commence over the next 12 hours as
Danielle moves beneath the southwesterlies associated with the
mid-latitude trough. The official intensity forecast calls for a
weakening through the period...which is similar to the previous
forecast and the SHIPS guidance.

Forecaster Roberts/Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 16/2100z 19.7n 38.6w 90 kt
12hr VT 17/0600z 21.6n 39.7w 85 kt
24hr VT 17/1800z 23.7n 40.6w 80 kt
36hr VT 18/0600z 26.3n 41.2w 75 kt
48hr VT 18/1800z 28.5n 41.3w 70 kt
72hr VT 19/1800z 32.0n 40.0w 60 kt
96hr VT 20/1800z 34.5n 37.5w 50 kt
120hr VT 21/1800z 37.5n 32.0w 40 kt

[cycloneye]

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 17, 2004


...Danielle refuses to weaken...maintains 105 mph winds...

at 11 am AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Danielle was located
near latitude 24.0 north...longitude 40.2 west or about 1240
miles...1995 km...southwest of the Azores.

Danielle is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph...26
km/hr. A gradual turn to the north and then to the northeast is
anticipated.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb...28.64 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...24.0 N... 40.2 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105
mph. Minimum central pressure... 970 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Avila

$$


Those words at the top of this thread are from Avila.The hurricane has hanged there despite the shear increasing.

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ielle.html

For anybody interested in a short read, etc.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 18


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 17, 2004



the eye is no longer observed on visible satellite images and the
cloud pattern has continued to become elongated on a north-south
direction. However...microwave data suggest that the eye is located
to the south of the area of deep convection. Although ci numbers
indicate winds of 90 knots...the T-numbers are coming down. Initial
intensity is lowered to 85 knots. Danielle could maintain hurricane
intensity for the next day or so but a more rapid weakening is
likely thereafter. Danielle should become extratropical by day five
or before.

Danielle is moving northward or 355 degres at 16 knots. The
hurricane is being steered by the flow between the subtropical
ridge and a middle-level trough to the northwest of the cyclone.
Danielle is expected to be embedded within a weak mid-latitude
southwesterly flow which will cause the cyclone to slow down
between the 36 and 72 hour period. Thereafter...the official
forecast calls for an increase in forward speed as suggested by
NOGAPS...UK and the GFDL models. Both the Canadian and GFS global
models move the cyclone very little. This is probably due to the
fact the these two models weaken the cyclone considerably and move
it with the low-level flow. On the other hand...the GFDL...NOGAPS
and UK trio...maintain a deeper circulation which is more likely to
steer the cyclone with the mean layer southwesterly flow.
On this track...the cyclone will be passing nearby or over the
Azores between 4 and 5 days.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/2100z 25.8n 40.5w 85 kt
12hr VT 18/0600z 28.0n 41.0w 75 kt
24hr VT 18/1800z 30.0n 40.0w 65 kt
36hr VT 19/0600z 32.0n 39.0w 55 kt
48hr VT 19/1800z 33.5n 37.5w 50 kt
72hr VT 20/1800z 34.5n 36.0w 45 kt
96hr VT 21/1800z 38.0n 30.0w 40 kt
120hr VT 22/1800z 46.0n 20.0w 40 kt...extratropical

[Thunder44]

I guess Avila is happy now.

[hurricanemike]

TPNT KGWC 171805
A. HURRICANE DANIELLE (FOUR)
B. 17/1715Z (57)
C. 24.7N/3
D. 40.0W/4
E. FOUR/GOES12
F. T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS -17/1715Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

15A/ PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .90 ON LOG10 SPIRAL.
FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T6.2 (CLEAR EYE)

PIATT

[Matthew5]

hurricanemike what would you say the rating would be for the central Atlatnic distrabance?

[ChaserUK]

Not sure what the effects would be but Danielle has been able to stay together for some time now despite lower SST's. We seem to be the target for all the ex tropical systems this year, Alex last week, Bonnie right now (brough severe flash flooding and devastation to Cornwall), and I think that ex-Charley expected Thursday. Anyone have any ideas what Danielle might bring, especially if she incorporates some cold polar air within the system?

[Brent]

Probably just a lot of rain.

[ChaserUK]

That is something we really do not need - especially in Cornwall!!!! Luckily, or should I say amazingly, no one died.

[KWT]

Will Daneille revive herslef back from the dead again and become a hurricane for the second time:

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

DESPITE THE APPARENT UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ENVIRONMENT...DANIELLE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH LIMITED...TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME...EXACERBATING THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS AND GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THEREFORE...
WEAKENING IS FORECAST BUT DANIELLE IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM A
LITTLE BIT LONGER SINCE NEITHER THE SHIPS OR GFDL MODELS WEAKEN
DANIELLE. IN FACT...THE LATTER MAKES DANIELLE A HURRICANE AGAIN.

[Guest]

maybe shes not giving up so easily...