Earl Advisories

[Dave C]

There was an in-depth discussion on the reasons provided by one of the pro mets but in simple terms the convective activity is max during late nite and at a min. during late afternoon. Same situation as lower pressures during one time of the day with higher pressures during another.

[southerngale]

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Put the URL in between image tags as shown above, except without the space after the last g. I had to do that so it would show up. Click the Preview button to test it.

[PurdueWx80]

The URL won't let you see the image, so follow my new directions above.

[Fire in the Sky]

Any chance this will stay loosely intact, blow across Central America and reform in the Pacific??

[ChaserUK]

I can see enough, there is certainly signs of reorganisation there chaps.

[Anonymous]

I dont think it would be strong enough to stay intact, aren't there mountains over central america?

[Brent]

There is a spin at 15 N. I think it's an MLC though. It's exposed on the western edge of the convection.

[PurdueWx80]

Any chance this will stay loosely intact, blow across Central America and reform in the Pacific??

That actually happens quite often as waves traverse central America and reorganize. The eastPac has been really quiet this year.

[GalvestonDuck]

Just a bit -- nothing major, IMO.

In my opinion "if" (looks like it might be)) Earl reforms it will be a major storm.The conditions are to ripe for it not to. By the way it has the makings of a large storm. Florida was fortunate Charley kind of shrunk in size when it entered the GOM otherwise there could have been a larger path of destruction..

Do ya see "professional met" or "S2K Forecaster" under my name? Did ya see "IMO" after my statement? Am I gonna have to start using a disclaimer signature this season -- "I don't know much about those blobby things or spinny things on those weather map thingies, but I'll throw in my two cents if asked. For the record, it is in no way official nor professional and should not be taken as such. Just trying to learn stuff here like everybody else and every once in a while I don't get 100% right on tests in school either."

[wx247]

We will be waiting anxiously!

[Stormcenter]

Uh Oh we have the beginnings of another long week again
if Earl is in fact regenerating. I don't have a good feeling (again) about this one.

[ChaserUK]

what are your thoughts then Stormcentre?

[Johnny]

[Wnghs2007]

032
ABNT20 KNHC 162122
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 995
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM EARL...IS
GENERATING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 30 MPH AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 162122
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 995
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM EARL...IS
GENERATING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 30 MPH AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

[Derek Ortt]

Earl is NOT moving at 30 m.p.h. The center just has reformed, giving it the apparance of the movement

[Anonymous]

This is about the same location where Charley exploded with a deep burst of convection, right over the top of the LLC.

Could this be a rerun?

[Wnghs2007]

Errrrrrrr. I already posted this. LOL AKA Remants Of Earl Moving 30 MPH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[lilbump3000]

Thats moving pretty quick.

[cycloneye]

With that kind of speed it can't develop a LLC that can sustain it has to slow a bit.