Earl Advisories

corpusbreeze · #661 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:28 pm

Lots of moisture out in front to work with.

Matthew5 · #662 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:28 pm

Derek is this new center at the surface. In doe's it have a chance at developing?

rainstorm · #663 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:28 pm

belize?

#664 Postby **wx247** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:30 pm

Who knew Uncle Earl could move so fast???!!!???

lilbump3000 · #665 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:30 pm

LOL!!!

#666 Postby **wx247** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:32 pm

rainstorm wrote:belize?

yes, helen, that is a country! :lol:

#667 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:33 pm

For us who live in the eastern caribbean islands our focus will be the strong wave in the eastern atlantic.

Anonymous · #668 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:33 pm

At that speed, I don't see a way how Earl could regenerate. Right now, it looks as if Earl is trying to regain some convection. I think it may be just a short lived development...like a cycle, quick burst of t'storms...then fade, quick burst...then fade.

I have seen it happen lots of times, with systems that are moving too fast. The convection cannot keep up with the speed of the system.

Tonight and tomorrow morning will be the tell tale sign of Earl's future.

#669 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:34 pm

ChaserUK wrote:what are your thoughts then Stormcentre?

Well my non-professional thoughts are if in fact Earl does
reform above 15 degrees (almost a sure thing) and slows down some (under 20 mph) then I believe it has the potential to make it into the GOM as a strong hurricane. Now the tricky part will be how far north it continues to progress. The further north it goes the more likely it will get picked up by a trough late in the week and move NW to NNW. IMO
But we all know how unpredictable tropical systems can be so
I really think it's too early to know anything for sure until it actually reforms and moves further westward.

Derek Ortt · #670 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:36 pm

that does look to be at the surface as those clouds had no height to them at all.

looking at sats, this does look to be moving at 30 m.p.h. but it will soon slow down.

no, this does not necessarily have to be picked up

#671 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:37 pm

wx247 wrote:Who knew Uncle Earl could move so fast???!!!???

LOL Nothing will happen as long he is racing like that.

#672 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:40 pm

In all my years of tracking tropical systems I don't ever
recall one traveling at 30 mph through the Carribean, wow!!
I 've got to believe it will slow down considerably when it reaches the Western Carribean.

Anonymous · #673 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:45 pm

Looking at the current WV loops, it appears a channel of upper level flow is developing out ahead of the remnants, in a way that will guide the system in the general direction of the middle/or NE corner of the Yucatan peninsula. Whether or not it makes it to the GOM, is a big mystery. Right now, I would say it makes it to the Yucatan as a TS or depression. I don't think it makes the Yucatan as a hurricane.

Website · #674 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:46 pm

It will never develop going 30 mph.

AL Chili Pepper · #675 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 4:49 pm

Missed the vote, but no. As long as he's moving as fast as he is, the chances are slim that he'll redevelop, IMO. Maybe when he re-emerges in the Pacific?

CaluWxBill · #676 Postby **CaluWxBill** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 5:04 pm

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

for some reason the color pallete on the second link makes it look like an IR pic, it is actually a visible satellite picture.

#677 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 5:06 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Earl is NOT moving at 30 m.p.h. The center just has reformed, giving it the apparance of the movement

The vortmax that shot out earlier is moving at 30+ mph. The rest of the system is moving at about 25. Still way too fast to reorganize into anything. It is moving too fast and will hit land before the high over the eastern GOM has a chance to erode enough to allow for a NE motion and thus...allow it to AVOID hitting land (not the yuk...but Ctl america).

Plus...there is no center to reform. There is a vortmax...and it is moving at 32 mph...based of vis imagery from 1545z to 1915z...when it moved 114 miles in 3.5 hours. So...since it is being spit out from the main system...we now have to wait a while for another low level vortmax to form...and with a system moving at this speed...that means it will likely be spit out too.

CaluWxBill · #678 Postby **CaluWxBill** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 5:09 pm

fixed:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... frames=30&

#679 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 5:09 pm

If a low pressure at the surface develops I will immediately be blown away, to fast for something to get going.

#680 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 5:20 pm

I think we should send Earl's remains to Athens, it may wind a medal!!!!!!

:lol:

Earl Advisories

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