AccuWX Paints...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hurricane Conditions on FL's East coast for days 13-15.

[Stormcenter]

Hurricane Conditions on FL's East coast for days 13-15.

Just what the people of Florida want to hear.

[mascpa]

Do you have any more information of this? Thanks!

[jlauderdal]

Hurricane Conditions on FL's East coast for days 13-15.

they can predict that 13-15 out but miss the charley track 12 hrs out.

[Trader Ron]

They must have some crystal ball.

[x-y-no]

Hurricane Conditions on FL's East coast for days 13-15.

Care to give us a link? I don't see it - nor do I think it likely they'd do such a thing.

[Guest]

Were not those the guys that said Chuckie was headed to the Big Bend area. But I believe there is a good shot of another hurricane hit. One yr Fl got hit by 3 hurricanes and the last one hit east coast in Oct.

[Air Force Met]

Were not those the guys that said Chuckie was headed to the Big Bend area. But I believe there is a good shot of another hurricane hit. One yr Fl got hit by 3 hurricanes and the last one hit east coast in Oct.

No. There is a lot of revisionist history going on by accuhaters and by people who didn't put out their own forecast. The 10-13 day forecast people are talking about here is not actually a forecast done by a person...it is a computer generated forecast based on the GFS model. It likes to develop hurricanes on day 10-15...but it can't initialize one.

[Guest]

I am not no Accu hater. His show has taught me alot and he trys to be entertaining. I figure two wks from now we are in the peak of the season. Any cloud needs to be watched. I think Accu is leaning toward an active Sept.

[Air Force Met]

Hurricane Conditions on FL's East coast for days 13-15.

they can predict that 13-15 out but miss the charley track 12 hrs out.

Let's be real here. Nobody had that track on Charley called right UNTIL he turned. But...since I don't argue with emotions..just facts...let me give some facts on what they were forecasting. Not my facts...but what they said.

On Thursday, which is well ahead of your "12 hours" comment, they said: "We are playing with fire here, as the backing off of the upper vortex west of the storm and the path of the storm over very warm water can lead to this storm exploding to category 3 or perhaps greater in a short period of time once through Cuba."

"In the mix, though, is the idea that it can hit farther south and not only would this be the strongest storm to hit from the Gulf between Tampa and Naples since Donna in 1960..."

"And of course Charley is upping the ante even more, for we have a hurricane capable of being the strongest landfalling hurricane on the Florida west coast since Donna in 1960. "

"Without trying to put words into the mouth of TPC, I am sure they have the same concern as I, that a 20-40 mph sudden drop can occur tomorrow before final landfall as the water it is going over and the upper dynamics are all combining to up the ante. "

On Friday, before the turn occured and when they NHC still had it going into Tampa, they said " Will Tampa be spared? A very tough question as the storm looks like it will hit south rather than north. By spared we mean no 15-foot surge of water into Tampa Bay, but I caution that this is by no means a lock. I expect this to go to a true pressure-driven category 3 today (the wind was pretty high given the pressure, especially in light of past storms). The pressure should reach between 950 and 960 by landfall tonight between 6:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. between Tampa and Ft. Myers, and in a worst case could go to 935. There is a chance for explosive deepening and the nightmare that was outlined in our hurricane forecast, a deepening, not weakening, major hurricane at landfall. "

AT 8 am EDT, they said "I am growing more concerned for the East Coast, specifically for the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states, that Charley is going to take a path more eastward than indicated. The worry, and it's covered earlier below, is that it is going to start fading east of north before noon and the landfall is between Tampa and Venice, then out again for a time that will allow the storm not to regain the kind of intensity it has in the Gulf, but to at least reorganize its structure for a second landfall. "

Again, this was before the NHC changed the track amd moved it back over water.

So...kind of a cheap shot to say they missed Charley's track 12 hours out. Everyone missed Charley's track 12 hours out...but as you can see, the ideas were being considered and the explosive development worries were verified.

[Lindaloo]

Okay, this blame game needs to stop.

[Air Force Met]

Okay, this blame game needs to stop.

I agree. Those who started it need to hear that too...whenever they start it agian. The thing that bothers me about it is this: Those accubashers/accuhaters...whatever we want to cal them...never raise their voices a peep when accuweather gets something right. They only point out shortcomings and that's not fair. It's really not fair when some don't even put out their own forecast. I can recall a couple of badly blown forecast, especially one a couple of years ago concerning Lilly, by the same people who constantly bash accuweather. I guess if a blown forecast is a reason to never listen to someone again then none of the pro-mets here should be listened to....and neither should the NHC.

All I am saying is let's be fair here. Give credit when credit is due and if all people can do is bash when someone busts the forecast...but can never bring themselves to give them congrats when they nail it...then perhaps they should silence themselves on this issue. Especially when they themselves have issued some pretty bad forecasts in the past (and in one example...accuweather nailed it right on the money and the individual blew it).

That is why I will debate a track or intensity forecast til I am blue in the face. BUT...you will never see me posting AFTER THE FACT that so and so blew it....they stink...etc. Reason? Because I fall into the same forecasting trap that ALL people fall into and that is this: You always remember the blown forecast but rarely remember the one that was right on the money. How many times have you said "that guy nailed it" in comparison to "that guy blew it?" Unless you remember every forecast...it is likely only the bad ones stick out in your mind. So...that is why...from now on I want to ask people THEIR forecast. If you give a forecast...then you have the right to criticize a blown one. But given the nature of meteorology...only those with a 100% track record have the aboslute right to lord it over the heads of those who don't. And from what I have seen...ain't nobody here with that ability. Nobody here can put out the "God" forecast with certainty.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This was for entertainment purposes only not to start ripping Accuweathers forecasting...I personally love JB and crew He is seldom wrong...And when he is he is not to far off...I look for him to be right on for the rest of the year...

[jlauderdal]

Hurricane Conditions on FL's East coast for days 13-15.

they can predict that 13-15 out but miss the charley track 12 hrs out.

Let's be real here. Nobody had that track on Charley called right UNTIL he turned. But...since I don't argue with emotions..just facts...let me give some facts on what they were forecasting. Not my facts...but what they said.

On Thursday, which is well ahead of your "12 hours" comment, they said: "We are playing with fire here, as the backing off of the upper vortex west of the storm and the path of the storm over very warm water can lead to this storm exploding to category 3 or perhaps greater in a short period of time once through Cuba."

"In the mix, though, is the idea that it can hit farther south and not only would this be the strongest storm to hit from the Gulf between Tampa and Naples since Donna in 1960..."

"And of course Charley is upping the ante even more, for we have a hurricane capable of being the strongest landfalling hurricane on the Florida west coast since Donna in 1960. "

"Without trying to put words into the mouth of TPC, I am sure they have the same concern as I, that a 20-40 mph sudden drop can occur tomorrow before final landfall as the water it is going over and the upper dynamics are all combining to up the ante. "

On Friday, before the turn occured and when they NHC still had it going into Tampa, they said " Will Tampa be spared? A very tough question as the storm looks like it will hit south rather than north. By spared we mean no 15-foot surge of water into Tampa Bay, but I caution that this is by no means a lock. I expect this to go to a true pressure-driven category 3 today (the wind was pretty high given the pressure, especially in light of past storms). The pressure should reach between 950 and 960 by landfall tonight between 6:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. between Tampa and Ft. Myers, and in a worst case could go to 935. There is a chance for explosive deepening and the nightmare that was outlined in our hurricane forecast, a deepening, not weakening, major hurricane at landfall. "

AT 8 am EDT, they said "I am growing more concerned for the East Coast, specifically for the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states, that Charley is going to take a path more eastward than indicated. The worry, and it's covered earlier below, is that it is going to start fading east of north before noon and the landfall is between Tampa and Venice, then out again for a time that will allow the storm not to regain the kind of intensity it has in the Gulf, but to at least reorganize its structure for a second landfall. "

Again, this was before the NHC changed the track amd moved it back over water.

So...kind of a cheap shot to say they missed Charley's track 12 hours out. Everyone missed Charley's track 12 hours out...but as you can see, the ideas were being considered and the explosive development worries were verified.

Well so far i have not seen a link to this hurricance conditions forecast so maybe it never happened. However, whether its NHC or Accuweather or anyone else posting 15 day forecasts i would treat them all the same way. I was just stating the facts. Last time I checked that isn't a cheap shot. Im sure you will agree with me that 15 days out in time to predict hurricane conditions is risky at best. Upon further review I doubt accuweather ever had that up on their site.

[Johnny]

AFM, good post. I don't understand why people get in a rip when people are wrong with a forecast or even right for that matter. I very much enjoy this message board but from time to time I catch myself shaking my head when people bash forecasters. It's almost laughable.

I've got a quick question for you AFM. Since we are digging deeper into the season, do you think the upper gulf coast states are pretty much in the clear (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama)? If so or if not, why? Thanks.

So what is JB saying about the rest of the season? I'm not looking for quotes, just general ideas.

[DESTRUCTION5]

AFM, good post. I don't understand why people get in a rip when people are wrong with a forecast or even right for that matter. I very much enjoy this message board but from time to time I catch myself shaking my head when people bash forecasters. It's almost laughable.

I've got a quick question for you AFM. Since we are digging deeper into the season, do you think the upper gulf coast states are pretty much in the clear (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama)? If so or if not, why? Thanks.

So what is JB saying about the rest of the season? I'm not looking for quotes, just general ideas.

Says its gonna be one nasty September

[PurdueWx80]

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/local_index_11to15day.asp?zipcode=33401&metric=0&partner=accuweather

Notice the windy conditions on 8/30 and 8/31. You can't see it on the free site, but the pay site says winds gusting to 45 mph. These forecasts are based on the GFS and are made by computers. The GFS has a tropical system just east of Florida sitting there for a couple of days, hence, the windy conditions over 3 days or so. Of course, this can't be trusted this far out.[/quote]

[PurdueWx80]

AFM, good post. I don't understand why people get in a rip when people are wrong with a forecast or even right for that matter. I very much enjoy this message board but from time to time I catch myself shaking my head when people bash forecasters. It's almost laughable.

I've got a quick question for you AFM. Since we are digging deeper into the season, do you think the upper gulf coast states are pretty much in the clear (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama)? If so or if not, why? Thanks.

So what is JB saying about the rest of the season? I'm not looking for quotes, just general ideas.

JB is about to issue a new forecast, but he has a VERY busy season for TX, not so bad for LA, but bad for FL too. Fl, of course, has already picked up all the points he had forecast, on the west coast anyway. His other busy spots were the NC/SC coast, followed by the mid-Atlantic and then Nova Scotia. He says no one is out of the woods since it is so early, and he fully expects a very big storm in the Gulf from what I can tell, based on the very warm water. Some of his analogs show years with an incredible amount of activity in September, so he is under the impression that we "ain't seen nothin' yet".

[Lindaloo]

Thank you Air Force Met!! Excellent post!!

[Air Force Met]

AFM, good post. I don't understand why people get in a rip when people are wrong with a forecast or even right for that matter. I very much enjoy this message board but from time to time I catch myself shaking my head when people bash forecasters. It's almost laughable.

I've got a quick question for you AFM. Since we are digging deeper into the season, do you think the upper gulf coast states are pretty much in the clear (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama)? If so or if not, why? Thanks.

So what is JB saying about the rest of the season? I'm not looking for quotes, just general ideas.

Nope...we are not in the clear. By mid-October you can sound an all clear for Texas as no storm has ever made landfall that late in recent memory. But...neer say never. The northern GOM states are players all the way until November. You never know. JB still saying a lot of close in activity...which has been a good call.