Earl Advisories

[lilbump3000]

Thats an upper level low spining ahead of earl.

[rbaker]

low level easterlies are taking earl inland, unless it puts on the emergency brake, however with the ull to its nw some moisture may get flung up towards w caribbean.

[kevin]

Hmm. Earl is still dead.

[WXextreme]

I don't think that we have ever had more than 1 major Hurricane strike the U.S. in the same season?

So, I'm sure whatever developes will not be memorable even if it makes it here.

[dixiebreeze]

Appreciate all the opinions and forecasts, but...........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Lookin' pretty good again.

[stormandan28]

may get into pacific and give them a little action for a change!

[lilbump3000]

If he does develop in the eastern pacific and becomes there next name storm it will be there E name storm as well.

[dixiebreeze]

Bluefields pressure:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[PurdueWx80]

Appreciate all the opinions and forecasts, but...........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Lookin' pretty good again.

That's not Earl - that's the new wave that came off Africa yesterday. Earl is moving over central America now.

[Brent]

Appreciate all the opinions and forecasts, but...........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Lookin' pretty good again.

NOT EARL. Earl is about to move inland. It doesn't have a chance to develop. Give up already.

[Thunder44]

I think dixie knows what "Earl" is. She showed the right sat pic in her first post. She may of made a mistake and posted the pic of the Atlantic wave.

[rbaker]

tropical discussion at 1805z from tpc showed some gale force winds in remains of earl at about 12 noon today from a ship report. So Earl still has some punch, question is will it continue inland as predicted or kind of put on the brakes like some of the fast trade winds do when they get to that part of the region. If so, thunderstorms in that area could fester, and if they move back over towards the nw after the ull leaves, then watch out. As I have said before, I don't give up on a system till it is inland, or all shower activity is gone, as we have seen with several systems this year.

[dixiebreeze]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS THE REMNANTS OF
T.S. EARL WHICH DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY. THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG
CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA FROM THE ATLC AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E
OF 70W. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL MARCH WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN LIMITING CONVECTION UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
WED.

[dixiebreeze]

The above was from the NHC discussion -- author: Formosa

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Does Earl still need to be watched? The bulk of the convection has managed to stay over water and is pushing towards the Southern Yucatan & Belize border. Earl has also slowed considerably. Is it still possible Earl could regenerate if it reaches the BOC on a NW trek?

[PurdueWx80]

The majority of Earl is over Central America and the Eastern Pacific; however, a piece of energy did slip by to the north and is moving towards the peninsula now. That is evident in all the shallow convection you see. It is also likely being enhanced by the upper low over the Yucatan, but upper lows as close as that generally produce too much shear for an open wave to develop. Notice all the convection in the southern Bay of Campeche. If whatever is left of Earl's mid/upper energy can feed into this (as has been stated all week, it's a huge if), then some (re)development could occur. I think it would become the "F" storm if that were the case.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Does Earl still need to be watched? The bulk of the convection has managed to stay over water and is pushing towards the Southern Yucatan & Belize border. Earl has also slowed considerably. Is it still possible Earl could regenerate if it reaches the BOC on a NW trek?

Yes whatever is left of Earl should be watched closely
especially if some of it's energy makes it into the GOM.

[KatDaddy]

Nice little blow-up of convection in BOC. The waters are very warm and the N piece of Earl's remnants are headed NW across the Yucatan and into the BOC. The flow in the BOC will likely be NW or NNW on the back side of high pressure. I do remember Brett in 1999 developing from a weak wave. The points is its hurricane season, AUG, BOC is very warm, and a weak tropical wave is approaching the BOC.

[Kennethb]

KatDaddy, my observations and comments are the same. Its August 18 so we need to keep a watch on this.

[Guest]

and Bret was a tiny but extremely powerful storm that cut 4 or 5 large channels through Padre Island. That storm scared the crap out of S. Tex.