AccuWX Paints...

[Johnny]

Hey fellas, I appreciate the info. Thanks.

[Guest]

If "Accu"Weather is taking the long range GFS and writing up a text forecast based on that sketchy info than they are not very "Accu" at all.Especially when theyre calling for TS or hurricane conditions...Thats absurd!! & not vey accurate!

[PurdueWx80]

As far as I understand it, this is JUST for their website, as it is easier to automate it than punch in their own forecast for every town and city in North America. I think they make their own forecasts for the people and businesses who buy them, and I'm sure it isn't based on what the GFS says alone.

[x-y-no]

If "Accu"Weather is taking the long range GFS and writing up a text forecast based on that sketchy info than they are not very "Accu" at all.Especially when theyre calling for TS or hurricane conditions...Thats absurd!! & not vey accurate!

And why is this any worse than publishing the raw output of the models? After all, someone might see all those pretty graphics and mistake that for the truth.

BTW, PurdueWX is exactly right. Pay customers get a forecast which most assuredly is not simply based on the models.

[Guest]

Well if there is any kind of tropical cyclone happening here the last few days of Aug than I will eat them there words..Until then I say that the 11-15 day forecast is not very "accu"rate.

I dont know if that long range forecast has ever been right,I remember this past winter they had lows down here in the low to mid 40's & when that time came the low was in the low 60's.I also saw heavy snows forecast for the deep south & only flurries fell..Gimme a break.I know alot of you love JB & his site,I like him too he is a good meteoroligist & he loves what he does but you cant defend a long range forecast that is off 75% of the time.

[PurdueWx80]

Well if there is any kind of tropical cyclone happening here the last few days of Aug than I will eat them there words..Until then I say that the 11-15 day forecast is not very "accu"rate.

I dont know if that long range forecast has ever been right,I remember this past winter they had lows down here in the low to mid 40's & when that time came the low was in the low 60's.I also saw heavy snows forecast for the deep south & only flurries fell..Gimme a break.I know alot of you love JB & his site,I like him too he is a good meteoroligist & he loves what he does but you cant defend a long range forecast that is off 75% of the time.

Do you even realize that you are referring to a forecast that comes from an NCEP model...not Accuweather...NCEP. Diss NOAA if you must. They know their forecasts aren't accurate out to 2 weeks, so there is no point in even talking about it any more. If they find that these long range forecasts are too inaccurate, they will either cut 'em or improve something. Again, Accuweather's ONLINE forecasts come from a computer, which gets most of it's input from NCEP's GFS!!!

[Guest]

welll this is NOT hard to see... we have had 3 event and all 3 made made US landfall.

Therefore it is NOT rocket science to say it is likely to be an active season...

AFM, good post. I don't understand why people get in a rip when people are wrong with a forecast or even right for that matter. I very much enjoy this message board but from time to time I catch myself shaking my head when people bash forecasters. It's almost laughable.

I've got a quick question for you AFM. Since we are digging deeper into the season, do you think the upper gulf coast states are pretty much in the clear (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama)? If so or if not, why? Thanks.

So what is JB saying about the rest of the season? I'm not looking for quotes, just general ideas.

JB is about to issue a new forecast, but he has a VERY busy season for TX, not so bad for LA, but bad for FL too. Fl, of course, has already picked up all the points he had forecast, on the west coast anyway. His other busy spots were the NC/SC coast, followed by the mid-Atlantic and then Nova Scotia. He says no one is out of the woods since it is so early, and he fully expects a very big storm in the Gulf from what I can tell, based on the very warm water. Some of his analogs show years with an incredible amount of activity in September, so he is under the impression that we "ain't seen nothin' yet".

[PurdueWx80]

welll this is NOT hard to see... we have had 3 event and all 3 made made US landfall.

Therefore it is NOT rocket science to say it is likely to be an active season...

AFM, good post. I don't understand why people get in a rip when people are wrong with a forecast or even right for that matter. I very much enjoy this message board but from time to time I catch myself shaking my head when people bash forecasters. It's almost laughable.

I've got a quick question for you AFM. Since we are digging deeper into the season, do you think the upper gulf coast states are pretty much in the clear (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama)? If so or if not, why? Thanks.

So what is JB saying about the rest of the season? I'm not looking for quotes, just general ideas.

JB is about to issue a new forecast, but he has a VERY busy season for TX, not so bad for LA, but bad for FL too. Fl, of course, has already picked up all the points he had forecast, on the west coast anyway. His other busy spots were the NC/SC coast, followed by the mid-Atlantic and then Nova Scotia. He says no one is out of the woods since it is so early, and he fully expects a very big storm in the Gulf from what I can tell, based on the very warm water. Some of his analogs show years with an incredible amount of activity in September, so he is under the impression that we "ain't seen nothin' yet".

We've had 3 events, what about Danielle and Earl? I was just giving you Joe's forecast because someone asked - it can only be judged at the end of the season. It's not like he updated the forecast right before Alex, Bonnie and Charley hit.

[Guest]

AFM

a couple of Points. I agree with you about the accu bashers... Derecho is the worst of the offenders and seems to be fanatical about them. Most of the accu bashers are alos TPC fanatics as well.

The 950 to 960 MB forecasted landfall strength with a worse case of 935 MB was a good forecast but it was made buy others earlier -- namely ME here and on my web site on WED Morning...24 hrs before accu-wx.

On Friday Morning they may have expressed concerns about a track further east but when they #1 guy is telling CNN and MSNBC Cat 3 at landfall in NC rolling up the ec with CATASTROPHIC flooding equal to Floyd"...

there really didnt appear to be alot of concern that Charley might track further east.

Let's be real here. Nobody had that track on Charley called right UNTIL he turned. But...since I don't argue with emotions..just facts...let me give some facts on what they were forecasting. Not my facts...but what they said.

On Thursday, which is well ahead of your "12 hours" comment, they said: "We are playing with fire here, as the backing off of the upper vortex west of the storm and the path of the storm over very warm water can lead to this storm exploding to category 3 or perhaps greater in a short period of time once through Cuba."

"In the mix, though, is the idea that it can hit farther south and not only would this be the strongest storm to hit from the Gulf between Tampa and Naples since Donna in 1960..."

"And of course Charley is upping the ante even more, for we have a hurricane capable of being the strongest landfalling hurricane on the Florida west coast since Donna in 1960. "

"Without trying to put words into the mouth of TPC, I am sure they have the same concern as I, that a 20-40 mph sudden drop can occur tomorrow before final landfall as the water it is going over and the upper dynamics are all combining to up the ante. "

On Friday, before the turn occured and when they NHC still had it going into Tampa, they said " Will Tampa be spared? A very tough question as the storm looks like it will hit south rather than north. By spared we mean no 15-foot surge of water into Tampa Bay, but I caution that this is by no means a lock. I expect this to go to a true pressure-driven category 3 today (the wind was pretty high given the pressure, especially in light of past storms). The pressure should reach between 950 and 960 by landfall tonight between 6:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. between Tampa and Ft. Myers, and in a worst case could go to 935. There is a chance for explosive deepening and the nightmare that was outlined in our hurricane forecast, a deepening, not weakening, major hurricane at landfall. "

AT 8 am EDT, they said "I am growing more concerned for the East Coast, specifically for the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states, that Charley is going to take a path more eastward than indicated. The worry, and it's covered earlier below, is that it is going to start fading east of north before noon and the landfall is between Tampa and Venice, then out again for a time that will allow the storm not to regain the kind of intensity it has in the Gulf, but to at least reorganize its structure for a second landfall. "

Again, this was before the NHC changed the track amd moved it back over water.

So...kind of a cheap shot to say they missed Charley's track 12 hours out. Everyone missed Charley's track 12 hours out...but as you can see, the ideas were being considered and the explosive development worries were verified.

[jlauderdal]

Why is that if Accu or TPC or Miami met or Tom Terry or anyone else are questioned on their forecast or anything else some people automatically assume its bashing. Bashing to me is when someone says negative things about one person or entity over and over. Everyone is entitled to their opinon and this is a message board so why not let everyone post their thoughts. Obviousely if the board admins feel someone is getting out of control and totally out of line than something should be done. There are usually two sides to every story and this is an excellant forumn in which to discuss these issues especially when there isn't a great deal of tropical action. i think we learn more when there is a give and take back and forth.

[x-y-no]

Why is that if Accu or TPC or Miami met or Tom Terry or anyone else are questioned on their forecast or anything else some people automatically assume its bashing. Bashing to me is when someone says negative things about one person or entity over and over. Everyone is entitled to their opinon and this is a message board so why not let everyone post their thoughts. Obviousely if the board admins feel someone is getting out of control and totally out of line than something should be done. There are usually two sides to every story and this is an excellant forumn in which to discuss these issues especially when there isn't a great deal of tropical action. i think we learn more when there is a give and take back and forth.

I must have missed it ... who hasn't been allowed to post their thoughts? And are others not to be allowed to comment if they think those thoughts are inaccurate or unfair?

As to what's "bashing" ... if the shoe doesn't fit - don't wear it. I haven't been around here too long, but I've already seen a significant vein of hostility towards accuweather here, for whatever reason. Buty if that isn't you, chill out and don't worry about it.

[Air Force Met]

Well DT....I'll quote you about the intesity. Looking at the way the upper level winds were setting up and the water temps...that didn't take a genious either. The point there was simply "they said it." But...for the record...they also said it Wednesday ...not 24 hours after you did. It was illuded to Wed. morning and they came right out and said it Wed. afternoon.

The flooding thing was a bust. The reasoning was good. The cold air...etc. But...the system was moving WAY too fast by then. Had the system not moved as fast as it did...this would have also panned out.

The part about being an active season or not...well...that is not what he is saying just now...but he was saying it months ago. Again...maybe we need to look into not only posting numbers but areas. Here in the office we have a competition and we post Texas landfalls and GOM storms. At least they are trying to do something. Given that the numbers for the W coast of Florida were so high...and it was his number one spot before the season becan...I don't think that is something to say "it's NOT hard to see." That may have been luck...maybe skill or a combo. But...I certainly didn't see anyone else post pre-season cat 3 numbers for the SW coast of Florida.

But...again...the point is: No met is perfect. I can remember you blowing a forecast or two...especially a couple of years ago on a big hurricane in the GOM (I think it was you). But you know what...and this is my point...you have earned the right to make judgments on these things because at least you put your ideas out there. Those who don't put their ideas out there should not be putting out the criticism. AND...we all need to remember that if we are going to give condemnation when it is due...we need to also give credit where credit is due...without trying to minimize it. That's petty. Heck if we are going to go down that route I'll start pointing out all the errors...even if the alternatives were just possibilities and then we will all have to be perfect.

By what manner you judge a man...that manner shall you be judged. I don't have a problem doing that. So...accubashers...be ready. I'm coming to revive your blown forecast posts

[Lindaloo]

AWESOME and well stated!!

[rainstorm]

joe bastardi is the most famous metro in the world right now, and deservedly so in my opinion. by the way, he is on the radio here every morning at 6:10 am. he did a great job with floyd.

[ameriwx2003]

Point taken about accu-bashers but J.B(I read and like J.B.) ALWAYS IS PIMPING THE TPC about things. In fairness he did give them kudos about Charley, then again that was after J.B. jumped on a Euro run and said Charley was going to Texas. The point being is J.B. likes to point out TPC weaknesses and sometimes he goes on tirades( which I wish he would stop). So it is expected that people will lay in the weeds for him to make mistake and pounce.. Regardless, I respect people who go out on a limb and put forth a long range forecast. Weather is not an exact science and never will be and weather watchers will continue to argue about weather forecasts and there favorite or least favorite forecaster and that will never change either.:):):)

[x-y-no]

Point taken about accu-bashers but J.B(I read and like J.B.) ALWAYS IS PIMPING THE TPC about things. In fairness he did give them kudos about Charley, then again that was after J.B. jumped on a Euro run and said Charley was going to Texas. The point being is J.B. likes to point out TPC weaknesses and sometimes he goes on tirades( which I wish he would stop). ...

Well, I admit I don't keep score, but I've seen him say and write a lot of good things about TPC over the years, along with his criticisms. Maybe it's just me wanting to see things in the best light, but I really don't have the same perception as you.

If anyone really cares enough, I guess they could go through the archives of his columns and count his pro/con comments. Ain't gonna be me, though!

[ameriwx2003]

Its not about him being right or wrong:):).. its that when you criticize someone else ,that leaves you open for the same thing.. In fact, when you put a forecast out in Public it leaves you open for criticism :) we all do it , we criticize a sportsplayer, a politician etc... its human nature;):)

[Air Force Met]

...then again that was after J.B. jumped on a Euro run and said Charley was going to Texas.

He wasn't the only one who did that. There were some here that did the same thing (jumped on the Euro. and started talking Texas). I did not buy that solution...but because it was the Euro...it slowed me down some. I was speeding at 70 mph for a Tampa landfall...but the Euro slowed me down to 55. If it was any other model but the Euro...I would have written it off...but because it was the Euro...it was something that had to be considered before writing it off as bogus.

[ameriwx2003]

AFM.. your right he wasn't the only one .that wasn't my point either lol... Anyways, people will always criticize.. its as simple as that,,, If you a pro met I am sure you take offense when an amateur( like myself) criticizes a forecast. Just like a ball player or a politician or a general etc... may take offense when someone who isnt a pro in that area criticizes something they do or say.. we all do it:):) anyways.... back to following storms ,I have given my 2 cents;):)

[rainstorm]

jb also has the best seasonal cane forecast. very detailed. gray is good too