wave in atlantic

[stormandan28]

It needs to get more North of where its at now and then I believe it will develop further its a wait and see situation

[PurdueWx80]

The wave is to the NE of the convection. Check out the NHC's Tropical discussion from 8:05 a.m. EDT.

...Tropical waves...


Tropical wave over the E atlc along 35w/36w S of 17n moving W
near 15 kt. IR satellite imagery shows an area of scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection W of the wave from 6n-11n
between 34w-42w. However...there is little indication or
organization at this time.

The convection is still separated from the wave, but notice that the wave is only moving W near 15 kt! If it can develop convection it would seem to have a better chance at survival because of it's slow motion and relatively far north locale. There is nothing with it now though.

[x-y-no]

Looks to me like the environment ahead is such that it should turn WNW by the time it gets to about 50W or so ...

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

I'm looking at the upper low moving south at about 65W 23N also ... if that keeps going south, it'll create some shear for this wave as it approaches the islands.

Doesn't look to me like this has much potential to develop until it gets into the central Carribean (if it does.)

[PurdueWx80]

Upper lows also can effectively ventilate systems (look at Charley!) unless they are too close. There is a tremendous amount of dry air between that upper low and the wave that isn't going to go away...another thing to consider.

[x-y-no]

Upper lows also can effectively ventilate systems (look at Charley!) unless they are too close. There is a tremendous amount of dry air between that upper low and the wave that isn't going to go away...another thing to consider.

THanks, that's a good point I failed to consider. I was just eyeballing rates and it looked to me like they would get quite close if the upper low continues its motion.

[MWatkins]

This wave has an unusual appearance in QScat imagery. Also unusual...the pass actually went right over it:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

Also...it's been a long time since I've seen ITCZ convection extend that far south to the equator at this time of year. It almost looks like we have 2 short-period waves tagging along with each other...with more deep convection out in front and a better-looking but elongated elliptical sw to ne stretched circulation for the second one.

I'm not sure I like it...kind of have a weird feeling about this system. Just doesn't look right to me.

MW

[Nimbus]

Looks like most of the convective activity is quite far south. Perhaps that is because there is dry air further north? Only looks like a threat to the windwards at this time

[CaluWxBill]

What's weird is how the upper level low just to the West of Danielle seems to be feeding off of Danielle. Seems to be quite a bit of convection starting to fire. Wonder if it could go tropical, probably not, just food for thought.

[PurdueWx80]

This wave has an unusual appearance in QScat imagery. Also unusual...the pass actually went right over it:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

Also...it's been a long time since I've seen ITCZ convection extend that far south to the equator at this time of year. It almost looks like we have 2 short-period waves tagging along with each other...with more deep convection out in front and a better-looking but elongated elliptical sw to ne stretched circulation for the second one.

I'm not sure I like it...kind of have a weird feeling about this system. Just doesn't look right to me.

MW

Based on that image, I don't get how the heck the NHC thinks the wave is at 17 N...perhaps that was a typo. There is clearly some rotation along the ITCZ at 8N 35W. That's getting into the latitudes where the coriolis force is negligible, so it is impossible to spin up a low until it gets back north. The main convection is further to the west at 10N 42W.

[Nimbus]

The conversion factor for mph - knots is .86 isn't it?

[MWatkins]

There's no way the wave should be positioned where they have it...wait...this just in...looks like somebody is reading this board...from the 205 TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE C ATLC PREVIOUSLY ALONG 35W/36W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO 38W/39W BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA... WHICH SHOWS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION NEAR 10N ALONG THE AXIS. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

MW

[Hurricanehink]

Nimbus, the conversion is 1 knot equals 1.15 m.p.h. So a category hurricane (115 M.P.H.) would be 100 knots. I think that's right...

About the wave, it looks ok... It probably won't become Frances or TD 6, but it needs to be watched. Look at Earl, that was unimpressive up until the day it became a TD.

[alicia-w]

I'm not sure I like it...kind of have a weird feeling about this system. Just doesn't look right to me.

MW

What does that mean exactly? Weird feeling meaning what? Thanks.

[mascpa]

It's going to have to start moving more north of due west pretty quick if it is to have a chance of development. If not, it'll just run into South America. Any ideas on whats going to happen to this wave?

[Nimbus]

I've been staring at the water vapor loop scratching my head. The moisture laden high that this wave is embedded in is pushing off to the west northwest over the windwards. The big high that has been sitting over Florida looks like it has been temporarily pushed further south over cuba by the northern jet. There is an upper level low descending SW down over Haiti/Dominican Republic that will keep the two highs seperated. Lots of dynamic flow change here so the models will probably have to keep adjusting as new data becomes available. If this thing gets initialized wrong we will probably just get a big TILT sign when the forecast does not verify.

[x-y-no]

Hmmm ... I guess this thing is just going to head right into South America. The convection has pretty much fallen apart too.