Forecasting Weather and Sports Contest #3

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

Forecasting Weather and Sports Contest #3

#1 Postby donsutherland1 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:29 pm

July's challenge proved to be another good success. Overall, there were eight contestants and several gripping battles to the finish.

Winners:

Short-Term Forecasting:
June 2004 Philly_Eagles: 3.32° (avg. error)
July 2004 Don: 2.84° (avg. error)

Long-Term Forecasting:
June 2004 Don: 2.80° (avg. error)
July 2004 Philly_Eagles: 3.80° (avg. error)

Sports Forecasting:
June 2004 Philly_Eagles: .080 (error from winning pct.)
July 2004 Analog96, Don, FWBHurricane, Iceman56: .040 (error from winning pct.)

This will be a three-part contest:

1) Short-range forecasting: Forecast daily high temperatures for Atlanta, Baltimore, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Tampa for August 16-20, 2004.

2) Long-range forecasting: Forecast the highest temperature for each of these cities for the entire August 21-31 period.

3) Forecast the combined win-loss record for the Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Tampa Bay Devil Rays for the August 16-20 period. Each team except for Detroit, Baltimore and Tampa Bay will play 5 games during that time. Detroit, Baltimore and Tampa Bay will play 4 games. There will be a total of 22 games played.

A separate winner will be announced for each category.

Team Schedules: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/schedules/

With respect to the daily forecasts, I'll try to provide daily updates on the standings. Daily temperatures will be taken from the following sites:

Atlanta (ATL)
Baltimore (BWI)
Detroit (DTW)
Pittsburgh (PIT)
Tampa (TPA)

All entries are due by 11:59 pm EDT on August 15.

Also, this contest will be opened up to those at Storm2K, so once all entries have been submitted, I'll provide a link to the thread there for one to be able to see those entries.

In advance, good luck.

Entries:

Short-Range Forecasting:

High Temperatures for August 16:
Atlanta
Baltimore
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Tampa

High Temperatures for August 17:
Atlanta
Baltimore
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Tampa

High Temperatures for August 18:
Atlanta
Baltimore
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Tampa

High Temperatures for August 19:
Atlanta
Baltimore
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Tampa

High Temperatures for August 20:
Atlanta
Baltimore
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Tampa

Baseball:

Combined win-loss record for the Braves, Orioles, Tigers, Pirates, and Devil Rays:

Long-Range Forecasting:

Highest Temperature during the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta
Baltimore
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Tampa
Last edited by donsutherland1 on Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:36 pm, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
NWIASpotter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1961
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 12:58 pm
Location: Terril, Iowa & Ames, Iowa
Contact:

#2 Postby NWIASpotter » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:57 pm

I'll have my entries in by the due date Don. Look forward to it!! :D
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

#3 Postby donsutherland1 » Sun Aug 15, 2004 10:52 am

Good luck, NWIASpotter. Hopefully, the active Tropics won't reduce the number of participants. But we will see.

Note: Detroit's code is DTW.
0 likes   

User avatar
NWIASpotter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1961
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 12:58 pm
Location: Terril, Iowa & Ames, Iowa
Contact:

#4 Postby NWIASpotter » Sun Aug 15, 2004 8:08 pm

Short-Range Forecasting:

High Temperatures for August 16:
Atlanta 86
Baltimore 81
Detroit 80
Pittsburgh 78
Tampa 91

High Temperatures for August 17:
Atlanta 88
Baltimore 84
Detroit 79
Pittsburgh 80
Tampa 92

High Temperatures for August 18:
Atlanta 89
Baltimore 84
Detroit 81
Pittsburgh 78
Tampa 90

High Temperatures for August 19:
Atlanta 87
Baltimore 85
Detroit 79
Pittsburgh 81
Tampa 88

High Temperatures for August 20:
Atlanta 85
Baltimore 85
Detroit 76
Pittsburgh 77
Tampa 89

Baseball:

Combined win-loss record for the Braves, Orioles, Tigers, Pirates, and Devil Rays: 10-12

Long-Range Forecasting:

Highest Temperature during the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta 91
Baltimore 87
Detroit 84
Pittsburgh 84
Tampa 94
Last edited by NWIASpotter on Sun Aug 15, 2004 11:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

#5 Postby donsutherland1 » Sun Aug 15, 2004 8:58 pm

NWIASpotter,

There are 22 games. You should fix your figure to reflect that. For now, I've recorded your estimate as it is.
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports Contest #3

#6 Postby donsutherland1 » Sun Aug 15, 2004 9:04 pm

My picks are as follows:

Entries:

Short-Range Forecasting:

High Temperatures for August 16:
Atlanta 85
Baltimore 83
Detroit 80
Pittsburgh 78
Tampa 91

High Temperatures for August 17:
Atlanta 87
Baltimore 84
Detroit 80
Pittsburgh 80
Tampa 91

High Temperatures for August 18:
Atlanta 89
Baltimore 84
Detroit 81
Pittsburgh 79
Tampa 90

High Temperatures for August 19:
Atlanta 88
Baltimore 87
Detroit 77
Pittsburgh 81
Tampa 90

High Temperatures for August 20:
Atlanta 88
Baltimore 87
Detroit 74
Pittsburgh 78
Tampa 90

Baseball:

Combined win-loss record: 9-13

Long-Range Forecasting:

Highest Temperature during the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta 90
Baltimore 87
Detroit 83
Pittsburgh 81
Tampa 91
0 likes   

User avatar
NWIASpotter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1961
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 12:58 pm
Location: Terril, Iowa & Ames, Iowa
Contact:

#7 Postby NWIASpotter » Sun Aug 15, 2004 11:40 pm

Well unless some people PM you looks like it's just us. The tropics definatly got peoples attention for now.
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

#8 Postby donsutherland1 » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:49 am

The August contest will have 5 participants. The WWBB participants and their predictions can be found at:

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showt ... adid=32028
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports Contest #3

#9 Postby donsutherland1 » Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:30 pm

Contest Opens to Impressive Start
Small Field Provides Powerful Opening Performance

When it comes to the field, size apparently does not matter. Thinned by the recent Tropical activity, the contest opened with just five participants, as opposed to the eight who entered in the first two such contests. Nevertheless, the five did not disappoint.

Perhaps it was inspired by some of the early performances at the 2004 Olympic Games, but the opening day of the Short-Range Forecasting challenge saw all participants provide powerful performances. The greatest average error after the first day of competition was a margin of just 2.00°.

Just as the Latin motto "Citius, Altius, Fortius" (Faster, higher, stronger) defines the Olympic games, perfection seemed to be the pursuit that defined the first day of the contest.

Overall, the five contestants provided an astonishing six perfect forecasts. Four of those six perfect forecasts concerned the high temperature at Tampa.

However, just as has been the case with the past two contests, there always seems to be a city that provides a great deal of difficulty. So far, it appears that Detroit could be that city for this contest. None of the contestants came closer than 4° there as Detroit remained in the grips of unseasonably cool air.

Will tomorrow see another extraordinary round of forecasts?

High temperatures for August 16 were:
Atlanta: 84°
Baltimore: 83°
Detroit: 76°
Pittsburgh: 77°
Tampa: 91°

Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don..........................1.20°
Tony.........................1.60°
NWIASpotter............1.80°
MdWx.......................2.00°
Philly_Eagles............2.00°

Baseball update later...
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports Contest #3

#10 Postby donsutherland1 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 8:04 am

A Contest First: Baseball Teams Off to Winning Start
Braves & Pirates Lead the Way

For the first time since the contest was initiated in June, the contest cities' baseball teams are off to a winning start.

Last night saw the Atlanta Braves win 5-4 and the Pittsburgh Pirates pull out an 8-7 victory in 10 innings. Even the Orioles fought hard in losing 3-1.

Aside from a start on the winning side, the outcomes smashed the doldrums of 2-3 performances that were witnessed on all five days of the previous contest.

In the end, both winning and excitement are back, even if it is for just a day.

Combined Record: 2-1
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports Contest #3

#11 Postby donsutherland1 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 5:52 pm

Another Day of Steady Performances
Quiet Weather Keeps Contest Close

"Steady as she goes," might well be the mantra of the current Short-Range Forecasting Challenge.

Another day passed and the weather remained uneventful. Across the contest's cities, temperatures climbed to generally comfortable levels and the fabled dog days of summer were not to be found.

Only Tampa broke the 90° mark with a high of 91°. However, for Tampa, that's par for the course and nothing extraordinary. In the meantime, Pittsburgh enjoyed another day in the refreshing 70s.

As a result, the participants' average margin of error remained below to much below the Short-Range Contest record of 2.84° set last month.

After two days, the contestants have enjoyed the fragrant beauty of Mother Nature's roses. But after having basked in the glow of two days of steady, if not remarkable performances, will those who reach for early victory find that these roses also have thorns?

High temperatures for August 17 were:
Atlanta: 86°
Baltimore: 80°
Detroit: 80°
Pittsburgh: 77°
Tampa: 91°

Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don..........................1.40°
NWIASpotter............2.00°
Philly_Eagles............2.10°
Tony.........................2.10°
MdWx.......................2.40°
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports Contest #3

#12 Postby donsutherland1 » Wed Aug 18, 2004 7:33 pm

Forecasting Excellence Continues
NWIASpotter and Philly_Eagles Creep Closer

In the Olympics, the U.S. women swam to a new world record in the 800 meter freestyle relay. In gymnastics, U.S. men's gymnast Paul Hamm picked himself off the scorers' table and then powered his way to spectacular performances on the high bar and parallel bars to become the first U.S. man to win the all-round gymastics Gold Medal.

In the third day of the Short-Range Forecasting Challenge, the participants had yet another dazzling day. All said, they provided four perfect forecasts and pushed the combined average error down to a miniscule 1.97° after three days. This is almost a full degree below the existing record low of 2.84° for this contest and everyone is well below that level.

At the same time, the race remains very close. At present NWIASpotter and Philly_Eagles are less than 0.5° from the lead and everyone is less than 0.9° from the lead.

With two days left, anything can still happen.

Will the reign of accuracy go on for another day? Stay tuned.

High temperatures for August 18 were:
Atlanta: 86°
Baltimore: 83°
Detroit: 79°
Pittsburgh: 81°
Tampa: 90°

Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don..........................1.47°
NWIASpotter............1.93°
Philly_Eagles............1.93°
Tony.........................2.20°
MdWx.......................2.33°

Finally, yesterday's baseball results saw the Tigers, Pirates, and Devil Rays all win while the Braves and Orioles lost. The cumulative baseball record after two days is 5-3.
0 likes   

User avatar
NWIASpotter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1961
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 12:58 pm
Location: Terril, Iowa & Ames, Iowa
Contact:

#13 Postby NWIASpotter » Wed Aug 18, 2004 9:47 pm

Thanks for the update again Don, All I got to say is that I'm coming for ya, haha :lol: It should be a close one, especially if a couple of those cities stop hurtin me so bad!!
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

#14 Postby donsutherland1 » Thu Aug 19, 2004 6:08 am

NWIASpotter,

You're definitely in the thick of it. It is way too soon for me even to think that my small lead is safe. Good luck (Of course, I will try to hold on).
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports Contest #3

#15 Postby donsutherland1 » Thu Aug 19, 2004 6:09 am

Baseball Teams Stumble Badly
Winning Record Disappears in Single Night

For two days, the combined performance of the baseball teams seemed headed for a different outcome than in the past two contests. After two days, the teams had nursed a winning record and were a combined two games over .500.

That all changed last night.

With Mark Mulder of the Oakland A's stifling the Baltimore Orioles, things went badly. By the time the night was finished, the teams had combined for a 1-4 record with the Atlanta Braves providing the lonely victory.

As a result, the winning record evaporated and now the teams are beneath .500.

Now the question arises as to how they will respond. Will they take the opportunity today to rebound like Paul Hamm did after his fall or will they fall flat for another day?

Combined Record: 6-7
0 likes   

User avatar
NWIASpotter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1961
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 12:58 pm
Location: Terril, Iowa & Ames, Iowa
Contact:

#16 Postby NWIASpotter » Thu Aug 19, 2004 8:18 am

Of course, I believe that the previous record is definatly in jeopardy with all 5 people being under it. Those baseball teams fell pretty good last night, but I believe most people had them with a losing record anyway, as I did. Good luck to you as well.
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports Contest #3

#17 Postby donsutherland1 » Thu Aug 19, 2004 5:28 pm

Summer's Heat Begins to Make Reappearance in South and Mid-Atlantic
Scores ease somewhat but remain at record levels

The fourth day of the contest saw temperatures finally begin to rise toward more summerlike levels in the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. By day's end, the thermometer rose to 89° in Atlanta, 87° in Baltimore, and 92° in Tampa.

As the thermometer rose, so did Tony's performance. For the day, he had a blazing performance with an average error of just 1.60°. As a result, he has pulled into a second-place tie and is poised to try to make a late-run as the Short-Range Forecasting contest heads into its final day.

Even as summer stirred from its seeming hibernation, Detroit saw a north wind develop. As a result, the temperature there struggled to 71° very early and then held in the 60s for much of the rest of the day before returning to 71°.

It is possible that Detroit's temperature might reach a new high after this update. If so, the adjusted standings will be posted later this evening to reflect the impact of this new high temperature.

High temperatures for August 19 were:
Atlanta: 89°
Baltimore: 87°
Detroit: 71°
Pittsburgh: 82°
Tampa: 92°

Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don..........................1.60°
Philly_Eagles............2.05°
Tony.........................2.05°
MdWx.......................2.30°
NWIASpotter............2.30°
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports Contest #3

#18 Postby donsutherland1 » Thu Aug 19, 2004 7:28 pm

Corrected High Temperature for Detroit: 72°

Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don..........................1.55°
Philly_Eagles............2.00°
Tony.........................2.00°
MdWx.......................2.25°
NWIASpotter............2.25°
0 likes   

User avatar
NWIASpotter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1961
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 12:58 pm
Location: Terril, Iowa & Ames, Iowa
Contact:

#19 Postby NWIASpotter » Thu Aug 19, 2004 9:24 pm

Ouch, that hurt me today. Looks like I need nearly a perfect day tomorrow if I expect to win this thing now. Good Luck to you Don, you might get this one.
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports Contest #3

#20 Postby donsutherland1 » Fri Aug 20, 2004 10:56 am

Baseball Teams Recover Winning Ways
Teams storm back above .500

Yesterday witnessed a strong performance by the baseball teams in the contest cities. The Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, and Pittsburgh Pirates rang up victories with the Tigers scoring a decisive win.

Only the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were bedeviled with a 10-7 slugfest loss. As a result of the combined 3-1 record last night, the teams have moved back over .500.

Four games are on tap tonight. Can the teams finally drink of the heretofore elusive cup of victory or will they suffer a night of losses and wind up with a losing record for the third consecutive month?

Combined Record: 9-8
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests