Several Post from the Old Farmers Almanac

[CaptinCrunch]

Date: 06-16-04 13:50

Folks:

Since I wrote an article yesterday, I have found out something astounding. This probably will be a scorcher of a summer, but brace yourselves, Snowdude said that the ice is not melting too fast at the poles, and that could mean a very cold winter for the U.S. in 2005. I have observed something else that supports that conclusion. I was digging in my garden yesterday and have discovered that ants and termites are already doing some "winter burrowing" into the ground. I am a relative old timer, being 50 years old, and have always had a keen interest in the weather. Back in June of 1962, I had a garden as a child, and remember the same thing happening in June. The summer was fairly normal and the fall was not bad, but as some of us who are older remember, the winter of 1962-1963 was one of the coldest ones of the 20th century for the U.S., particularly from the Great Lakes south and east.

You heard it here first, I believe based on what I saw yesterday, and have not seen since 1962, that the winter of 2004-2005 may be quite severe over much of the U.S. It may be the worst in some 40 years, nature knows long before we do. The fact that ice is not melting near the north pole and it has stayed so cold in Churchill Canada, near Hudson Bay, may be an indicator that this is coming.

I still think this will be a doozy of a summer, but I am afraid we may be in for a 3rd really bad winter and this may be worse than the last 2. If another El Nino arises, which is possible, it may even worsen the cold.

Any thoughts are welcome. The ants seem to support Snowdude's observations. I could not believe what I saw, not having seen this in 40 years so early.

Robert

[CaptinCrunch]

Date: 07-09-04 16:57

I am still sticking by the fact that this winter will be quite severe. It looks as though the neutral pattern will persist through this winter. With cooling in the Pacific and the North Atlantic Oscillation in a negative phase, this is the best chance for Canadian cold air to come down across the central and eastern United States. Florida will not escape it either, there may be many freezes in January and February.

There have been several mentionings of how the weather has changed very quickly in the 1996-2004 period, more than in previous decades. This can be an indication of global warming and global cooling. Or, it could be that global warming is leading to global cooling.

The Alaskan heat shifted into northern Canada which is quite unusual, after snow and ice into June, Churchill suddenly reported temperatures in the mid 70's which is quite warm for them. But the ice pack in the far north is quite thick this time, much like the onset of winter two years ago.

This shall be interesting to continue to observe. I will bet that the Farmer's Almanac 2005 prediction will call for a severe winter.

Look for a cool spell at the end of August for the Great Lakes and East.

[CaptinCrunch]

Date: 07-21-04 14:30

Hi folks:

I will try to answer a few questions here if I can. I do believe that there is something to wooly bears and winter, it has worked out about 6 out of 8 times, and the more black, the more cold and severe weather, each segment of the caterpillar represents a week of winter, so depending on where you see black, that is where the coldest, snowiest weather will be. The more black, the more severe.

As to Southeast Missouri, this winter may be a little different than the past two in terms of coverage and intensity of severe cold. Southeast Missouri gets blue northers like Texas and this will be a year for that as well as the cold in the East. I think Missouri may get their share of snow this year, maybe even more than the Northeast as the storms right south of you along the cold air boundaries that form. Most of the East Coast storms will be coming from the Tennessee valley and that means a lot of snow in the East. I think this December may be bad for the East Coast with snow, and I think that January and February may be for Missouri. This winter may catch you.

Watch Hudson Bay. There is currently a cold trough coming down into the U.S. This weekend will be cool. Trust an old timer who has done weather for a while, Hudson Bay is the key to this winter, and with the neutral pattern in force, it is likely that a widespread area from the Mississippi River east will see severe cold and storms. In Colorado and the West, you may not be so lucky. I think your winter will be a rather mild one.

It is the Hudson Bay trough that has me very concerned, simply because of my number of years on the earth and where I am, and what has happened in the past when this appeared in June and July.

I think you may find I won't be wrong.

Robert

[CaptinCrunch]

Author: Gregory (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: 07-27-04 10:20

Ladies and Gentlemen, I believe that we will have a relatively cold and snowy winter; just not the entire east coast. I think based on early and I do mean "EARLY" indications are that the Northern midatlantic, New England and the Great Lakes will probably see the worst. I'm sure that the mountains will get there share but the mean storm track should put the real snows (Without Elevation TO Help OR Cheat) north of the 35 degree latitude line in the east. I don't agree with Dominic that the southern jet stream will be as far south as he indicates. He has always had a bias with this. Based on current water temps off of the Newfoundland coast this would create a sharper jet stream in the winter and not a weak one like last year. This contrast between the above normal temps off of Newfoundland and the potentially cold air should be the main path for heay snows. However, because it is way to early and there is plenty of time for fluctuation of this mean storm track, to say this track for sure will hold is very premature. We don't know exactly where the southeast ride will set up or where the greenland block will be positioned. Nor do we even know how the MJO, PNAO, NAO, and AO will interact with these other factors. Also I think based on research and observation we will have a neutral to even potentially weak "AND I DO MEAN WEAK" el nino. This would juice up the storms a little. But time will tell.

[CaptinCrunch]

Author: snowdude590 (---.fdl.wi.charter.com)
Date: 07-27-04 14:43

i do agree with gregory, although i think water temps will remain in the -0.5 to +0.5 range, not even a weak el nino. Neutral winters have been know to juice up storms already. take the winter of 2000-2001, where the east had record breaking snowfall in Dec. I think this winter will be just like that one because the summers are exactly the same. I mean exactly, a little to the cool side, almost the same 90 degree days. Here in wisconsin, we haven't hit 90 (where i live in wisconsin) and other places in the great lakes have had no or very few 90 degree days. The same thing happened in the summer of 2000 , before the harsh winter of 2000-2001. Nature also tells us some things. Some weatherfolklore is that if the ant hills are high in july, it will be cold and snowy, and the ant hills are very high here, also the squirrels' tails are becoming for bushy around here.


Ice/snow cover continues to remain way above normal, mainly in the hudson bay, although it is a little above normal in the north pole as well. It does seem that the more ice there is in the hudson, and the longer it lasts, the colder and snowier the winter. As the summer of 99, there was no ice in the hudson by now, the winter also sucked, it was very warm. The summer of 00, there was still alot of ice on the hudson, although not as much as we have now, and the winter had record breaking snowfall, and pretty cold.

[CaptinCrunch]

Author: donsutherland1 (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: 07-31-04 00:27

A few points:

The snowiest period in the greater NYC area since the beginning of the 20th century is not the 1995-96 through 2003-04 period. It is the 1914-15 through 1922-23 period:

Average Seasonal Snowfall:
1995-96 through 2003-04: 27.8"
1914-15 through 1922-23: 35.9"

Put another way, the 1914-15 through 1922-23 period was almost 30% snowier than the 1995-96 through 2003-04 period.

Finally, it is too soon to analog Winter 2004-05. Factors such as whether or not a weak El Niño sets in, ENSO regional anomalies, whether the QBO holds westerly through the winter, etc., will all play an important role.

Also, in terms of North American snowcover, summer snowcover for 2004 does not compare to the top ten years. June 2004 snowcover came to 5.7 million square kilometers. The ten years with the highest figure since 1973 when such records were kept are (millions of square kilometers):

1978 8.0
1976 7.5
1985 7.2
1977 7.1
1973 7.0
1981 6.9
1979 6.7
1983 6.6
1986 6.5
1987 6.5

Moreover, not all of these winters were very snowy in the East e.g., 1979-80 had much below normal snowfall.

All said, at this point in time, there is little to suggest that an extraordinary winter lies ahead. It might, but it might not. It's simply too soon to tell.

[CaptinCrunch]

Author: Gregory (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: 07-31-04 10:23

Hi, there Donsutherland. It's good to see a person like you sees what I see. I've been trying to tell these folks Robert, Snowdude, Dominic, Nikolai, ect. that for a while but they all just don't listen. They don't understand that you just can't broadbrush everything. They yelled at me in disbelief when I said to them like you that just because it may be colder based on the Hudson Bay values that it doesn't mean that the storm track will be favorable. Also what thoughts we share in common is that it is still way to early to know where and how the two jet streams, (Polar and Subtropical) will meet if they even do. Not to mention if it will be the south midatlantic or north midatlantic and New England region that get the big snows this up coming winter season. I also new based on my research like yours that the potential for a weak and I do mean very weak (like 0.7C) El Nino could occure. It sound like you had your share of meteorolgy classes. Keep up the good work buddy. Hope to here more intellect soon.

[CaptinCrunch]

Author: donsutherland1 (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: 07-31-04 10:39

Andrew,

In terms of snowfall, if NYC's historical record is of any indication, historical odds that Winter 2004-05 will produce 40" or more of snowfall are low.

Winters 2002-03 and 2003-04 were the first consecutive winters with such snowfall since Winters 1947-48 and 1948-49:

2002-03 49.3"
2003-04 42.6"

On four previous occasions, there were consecutive 40" winters. Never was there a third consecutive such winter. Winter 1917-18 came closest with 34.5". It was one of two such occasions where consecutive 40" winters were followed by a winter with 30" or more snowfall.

It should also be noted that NYC has had 5 instances in which there were three or more consecutive winters with 30" or more snowfall. The longest stretch is five consecutive such winters (Winters 1880-81 through 1884-85):

1880-81 35.5"
1881-82 31.4"
1882-83 44.0"
1883-84 43.1"
1884-85 34.2"

The last time there were 3 or more consecutive winters with 30" or more snowfall was Winters 1945-46 through 1948-49:

1945-46 31.4"
1946-47 30.6"
1947-48 63.2"
1948-49 46.6"

Interestingly enough, Boston had less snowfall than NYC in this winter for the first time since 1990-91 (39.4" vs. 42.6").

Only 4 of the 15 winters that followed seasons when this occurred saw NYC receive 30" or more snowfall:

Year Following Winter
1895-96 43.6"
1896-97 21.1"
1904-05 20.0"
1907-08 20.3"
1908-09 27.2"
1913-14 28.8"
1914-15 50.7"
1924-25 32.4"
1935-36 15.6"
1936-37 15.1"
1946-47 63.2"
1948-49 13.8"
1978-79 12.8"
1979-80 19.4"
1990-91 12.6"

Overall, while odds are strongly against Winter 2004-05 seeing 40" or more snowfall in NYC, odds are more favorable with respect to 30" or more snowfall.

Right now, a quick look at emerging analogs suggests that there can be such a snowy outcome. Other emergent analogs are less favorable. However, until critical details pertaining to the ENSO, ENSO regional anomalies, QBO (west or switch to east? timing of switch?), etc., become more certain, it is difficult to say which emergent analogs will actually become relevant for the upcoming winter.

Some interesting clues could be provided by the Atlantic hurricane season. In many cases, the hurricane season can help one sift through the analogs. But it is only one step. More is involved.

[CaptinCrunch]

Author: robert hartge (---.z156-94-67.customer.algx.net)
Date: 08-09-04 16:53

Hi folks:

I think the last few days of record cold in the Mid-west and East is a sign of things to come. In the Mohawk valley, there was even frost, which is almost unheard of in August. Another shot of cold air is coming to the same area later this week. This weather is more like September and not August. The last cold wave even made it to north Florida, which almost never happens in August. The culprit is the same, the Hudson Bay trough, circulating cold fronts around low pressure there in the upper atmosphere, and with a neutral winter and no El Nino on the horizon, this could mean a severe, very severe winter in the East. Remember the winter of 1977? The summer of 1976 was exactly like this. So was 1982. We had severe winters that followed in both cases. Unless something changes, that is where we are headed, I am afraid. The tropics are heating up, but it is much farther to the south, excepting Hurricane Alex, but look at how fast that shunted across the Atlantic! This is a sign that the westerlies are much farther south than usual, much earlier than usual. This is almost a late September pattern.

The cool weather so far this August, I believe, echoes my earlier sense that this will be a very severe winter and a long one. I will also predict that in the summer of 2005, the Eastern Seaboard will have record heat.

Let's see if I am right. I am thrilled with the response this email has received. And, the Farmer's Almanac is great, as are your websites,
Nes-ce pas?

Robert

[CaptinCrunch]

Author: craig (---.tconl.com)
Date: 08-10-04 19:40

ROBERT I FOUND MORE INFORMATION ON THE EL NINO, AGAIN IM NOT TRYING TO BURST YOUR BUBBLE BUT I JUST HAD TO LET YOU KNOW THIS. AND ALSO WOULDNT A EL NINO WINTER MEAN WARM AND RAINY. JUST WONDERING?

HERE'S THAT INFORMATION BUT FIRST THE WEBSIGHT:

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml

HERE'S THE ARTICAL:

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Forecast
Issued: 8/8/2004
Updated as Warranted

See ENSO page for Links and Current Data
ENSO Archives

Mild El Nino Developing
Madden Julian Oscillation Strengthens

Starting with the winter of 2003/2004 a generally neutral trend was in place with occasional signals of a developing El Nino. That same trend continued well into the summer of 2004 but with the strength and frequency of the El Nino-like periods increasing, enough to potentially pass over the threshold to be considered a minimal El Nino by late August. Whether this evolves into a real El Nino for the winter season is still debatable, but it seems likely that the impact of these episodes on the overall North Pacific winter weather pattern should have a mildly positive influence on the storm generation potential.

Looking at current seasonally adjusted Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific, it is apparent that something is going on. Consistently warmer than average water temperatures have persisted on the equator near the dateline since last winter, though fluctuating in intensity and remaining just below the threshold to be considered noteworthy. But starting in July, and now into August, that trend has intensified and the pool of warm water is starting to move east towards Ecuador, typical of El Nino. Currently water temperatures of of 0.5 to 1.0° C above normal extend from just northeast of New Guinea eastward across the dateline and along the equator to due south of California, with the core of this warm pool 2° C above normal and positioned just north of the Marquesas Islands (140 W). This is reasonably solid and is obvious when examining the latest imagery. The standard summer-time cool tongue of water to -2° C is still present extending westward off Ecuador, but has slowly been receding, loosing ground to the momentum of the warmer waters encroaching upon it from the west. Elsewhere in the Pacific warmer than normal waters continue to be across the entire North Pacific, terminating in a large pool positioned along the US west coast, similar to last winter and into 2004 and are likely present due to last winters occasional bursts of El Nino like conditions. Warmer than normal waters are also present in the tropical East Pacific. Most of the South Pacific remains in the normal range with only a small pocket of slightly warm water east of New Zealand.

QuikSCAT imagery and wind anomaly analysis indicates that the normal trade winds in the far West Pacific have reversed direction, now blowing from west to east and covering from south of the Philippines to south of the Marshall Islands (just west of the dateline). This is a significant trend and is likely attributable to the current strong phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO - more details below). Trades are suppressed, but have not reversed direction, from the dateline eastward to about 160W, a bit short of the core of the warm water pool discussed above. During a typical El Nino this time of year one would expect to see slack to no trades with bursts of westerly winds from the Philippines eastward to nearly 120W. We appear to be rapidly approaching such conditions. Conversely, if La Nina was in-effect, the trades would be blowing hard east to west across the entire equatorial Pacific, which is clearly not the case. In all, winds look definitely El Nino like for the time of year.

Another indicator of El Nino or La Nina is a change in sea surface height. Seas surface height is the height of the oceans surface relative to 'average'. As indicated by satellite analysis a moderate band of waters running about 10-15 centimeters higher than normal spans the width of the equatorial Pacific from just west of the dateline eastward to the Galapagos Islands. This is somewhat above normal, but not markedly so. Of note though is that these higher waters are more pronounced than last year, presumably indicative of the potentially developing phase of a weak El Nino.

The 30 and 90 day average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are not strongly indicating El Nino. This is the one indicator that gives us some pause. This index compares barometric surface pressure between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. A negative anomaly (signaling El Nino) indicates that lower than normal surface pressure is present over the Central Pacific while higher than normal pressure is in the West Pacific. A positive SOI (La Nina) means the pressure pattern is reversed. During April 2004 the 30 day trend was very negative, indicating El Nino, but returned to normal in early May and even trending towards La Nina. Then again in June the trend went even stronger to the negative only to return to a near neutral state late in the month. And then again in July to trend dipped well into the negative range, only to rebound some in early August, but not giving up the slight negative tendency. These steep dips are associated with an increase in the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the West Pacific during the noted time-frames (more details below). The 90 day trend, which attempts to average out the sporadic peaks and valleys in the curve now suggests a slight tendency towards El Nino, but nothing that stands out. Still, this tendency could be the start of a pattern, but it's just too early to tell with any certainty.

Another key indicator in the evolution of either an El Nino or La Nina event is the depth and profile of the 20 degree thermocline. During La Nina events, warm subsurface water remains pooled up in the far West Pacific near the equator. Cold surface and subsurface waters dominate the East Pacific, resulting in a steep angle from east to west, going from shallow in the east to deep in the west. In El Nino events, as warm subsurface water (i.e. Kelvin waves) migrate towards the eastern Pacific, the angle flattens and becomes more consistent across the equatorial Pacific. Latest data indicates that the thermocline is definitely more flat than last year, which itself had tendencies towards El Nino, suggesting a stronger trend is in-place this year. Of note is the repositioning of the core of the central warm pool, now over the dateline rather than at 160E. This is another hint of a developing trend towards El Nino, but not strongly so.

Of real interest is the clear indication of Kelvin Wave activity. A Kelvin Wave is a pocket of warm water that travels under the oceans surface from west to east at a depth of about 150-200 meters. It is generated by a burst strong westerly winds blowing over the equator in the West Pacific associated with the MJO. As the warm water gains eastward momentum, it sinks and travels well under the oceans surface, only to reappear at the surface when it impacts the South America Coast. This results in the sudden appearance of warm waters along the coast of Peru and Ecuador. Occasional eruptions are normal. Large and consistent eruptions are the hallmark of solid El Nino events. The source of Kelvin Waves, a negative SOI and reversed trades is directly related to the strength and frequency of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). This weather pattern is responsible for the periodic strengthening of the anomalous westerly winds in the West Pacific which drive production of subsurface Kelvin waves, and also drive the SOI negative. When the MJO enters an active phase, El Nino indicators strengthen, and as it fades, so does El Nino. At this time there is clearly a Kelvin Wave with temperature 4.0° C above normal positioned 75 meters under the oceans surface on the equator at 120W, approaching the South American coast and expected to impact it in late August. If El Nino were developing, we would want to see more of these events developing. At this time no other Kelvin Waves appear to be in production, but the season is still early and previous manifestations of the MJO this year have produced smaller Kelvin waves, so it would be reasonable to expect more to appear as we move deeper into the season.

Reviewing all the evidence, there are some decent indications of a developing weak El Nino. Trade winds are reversed in the West Pacific, Sea surface temperatures are marginally above normal in the area typically associated with El Nino as are sea surface heights. There is a solid Kelvin Wave en route to the South American coast, the strongest of several that have made the journey so far this year. The SOI has been periodically negative, very much so at times, and is showing no signs of moving into the positive range. Of interest is the seasonal hurricane forecasts produced by Dr. William Gray and the team at the University of Colorado. Their April 2nd forecast suggested that mild La Nina conditions were expected in the Eastern Pacific through the summer based on trends at key locations in all oceans over the previous 6 months. This also contributed to their assessment that, like most years in the recent past, enhanced tropical storm activity was expected for the the Atlantic hurricane season (northern hemisphere summer). But the latest update published August 6 reverses direction somewhat and now suggests that strengthening El Nino signals in the Pacific will have a negative impact on the development of tropical systems in the Atlantic, and they have therefore adjusted their forecast downward. Also of interest is the latest El Nino discussion from the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP. Their assessment suggests that there is a 50% probability that the threshold for minimal El Nino criteria will be met by the end of the month (August). This data further substantiates that some form of El Nino activity appears to be underway. The big wild card in all the analyses is the MJO. If it continues to be active, the meteorological signals that are driving El Nino symptoms will likely continue to be manifest. If the MJO falters, a normal year will result. It is too early to tell with any certainty, especially since only the latest MJO is driving most of the El Nino forecasts. Another 30-45 days of observation is required before a definitive forecast can be made, but the trend is towards El Nino at this time.

Of 11 ENSO models run in July, about half indicate neutral conditions while the other half indicate mild El Nino. None indicate La Nina. Given that we are starting to enter the prime El Nino development window, and the over-all meteorological pattern is towards El Nino, it seems reasonable that a weak El Nino pattern will persist and we have factored this into our most current swell potential rating.

LONG-RANGE NORTH PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST

Fall-Winter 2004 Swell Generation Potential (for California & Hawaii) = 6.5

There is no data supporting development of a significant El Nino event this year, but lot's of data suggesting a mild one. In actuality, if a mild one develops, this would be good. It is not uncommon to have a series of years where mild El Nino conditions persist. They slowly and subtly change the atmospheric weather patterns in favor of producing slightly stronger and more frequent winter storms in the North Pacific, but not so much as to cause full blown storm conditions to fill the North Pacific basin. During strong El Nino events, storm conditions often take over the coastal regions of Hawaii and the US West Coast, making the large waves produced by these strong winter storms unrideable from a surfing perspective and inflicting needless damage to property and civilian livelihood. The spectacle produced by such events is certainly not worth the cost to humans and wildlife. But the subtle guiding influence of a mild El Nino strung out over several years can produce a series of climatic changes that favor the development of storms in both the North and South Pacific without the associated poor local weather and damaging winds and rains. We are hopeful that such a pattern is developing.

All current predictive data continues to suggest we are approaching development of a mild El Nino pattern in the coming few months. But for the short-term (through September), no significant change in the storm and surf pattern is forecast. But if El Nino does develop, it would be likely for late season West Pacific typhoons to recurve to the northeast and become extratropical, possibly moving towards the dateline and eventually the Gulf of Alaska. Given that this current El Nino is rather weak and late in developing, the extratropical influence is not expected to be strong and possibly even un-noticeable. Likewise as the late Fall and early Winter seasons occurs, a slow but steady enhancement to the normal storm track could be expected, with some increase in the size and consistency of the winter surf pattern occurring, and certainly better than the past 2 years. The El Nino enhancement could also have the ability to extend the winter surf season a month or so longer than normal, but not strongly.

So for now, plan on a 'normal' summer (though it's been something less than that in July going into August) and a normal start to the early Fall season. A slow evolution towards a mildly more active pattern could then develop, but it's still too early to tell with any certainty.

(This forecast is highly speculative and based on historical analysis of past La Nina/El Nino events and the latest long-range forecast models)