Possible close in development/action next week?

[Steve]

I was reading Joe B's column today and he threw out the idea that a more "Newfoundland Wheel" pattern is setting up which could invite some trouble on its SW side (being the SE Atlantic Coast or Gulf) out of what appears to be nothing and or something otherwise seemingly innocuous (potentially the intersection of a frontal trof with a westward moving tropical wave). He's not saying 'yeah', but he's giving the heads up about the pattern - which IMHO is where he is superior to almost anyone putting out discussions. He's not even saying that anything is going to form ("not trying to pull a rabbit out the hat, but the hat is there"). Some may recall Isidore 2002 was involved in a similar pattern (though one where there was a trof pumping cold air into the middle of the nation where next week's means is more liable to be in the west.

Just something to watch for...

Steve

[Nimbus]

There is an upper level low just north of the Caribbean that would ventilate any system that developed to the south. The current wave just coming into the windwards is forecast to bring showers for several days so some of that energy might make it into the Caribbean and fire up.

[Guest]

Steve, I believe the Newfoundland wheel pattern is one which NC to new england would be at risk more than the southern states. 1954 is a great example, a classic Newfoundland Wheel setup with Carol/Edna/Hazel all major 'canes and impacting these areas. Could you post a link to the column you are speaking of?

[Guest]

I know I am pickin the fly sh\= out of a pepper jar but if you look at the last vis 13 n 54 w (there is a tropical wave) might have a middle level rotation.

[PurdueWx80]

Steve, I believe the Newfoundland wheel pattern is one which NC to new england would be at risk more than the southern states. 1954 is a great example, a classic Newfoundland Wheel setup with Carol/Edna/Hazel all major 'canes and impacting these areas. Could you post a link to the column you are speaking of?

The part of the site where it came from is pay only so I don't think you'll be able to get to it unless you belong to pro.accuweather.com.

[Guest]

The is a backdoor link which was posted here a few months ago.

[Steve]

I don't have the backdoor link, I have the pro site. I read the column but haven't looked at his videos today. I agree with what you're saying about 1954, but it can vary between the SW Atlantic and Gulf depending on various circumstances in play. This probably would be a situation where the high over the NW Atlantic was a little stronger than the Bermuda High at that point rather than a one or the other scenario.

In a related note, I got a PM from HankFrank over at CFHC today wondering if I was sold on an upcoming pattern flip with the SOI set to go back positive along with the a potentially positive NAO. I told him I wasn't sold yet, but that it would be very interesting if we were able to get another hit or two (especially a major) on the CONUS. That would make 2004 perhaps the most destructive landfalling year in decades (if not one of the most active in the last 100 years).

Steve

[Steve]

And for the Bastardi bash crew, I'd like to reiterate the value of his pattern recognition skills. He doesn't get everything (far from it), but this is something alluded to since Friday. Now if you're in the coastal Carolinas, does it matter if you knew of possible impact a few days ahead of everyone else, did it ultimately matter? I realize we're not talking about meteoric rises in a stock price that you had the early ears on, but still, for a tropical weather buff like me, I got the clue in to look somewhere where there wasn't much.

Steve

[Three Blind Mice]

Well stated. And yeah living in the bullseye it's nice to have a little heads up notice before the craziness starts.