Slow 10 Day Period Ahead?

[MWatkins]

This could end up as a very quiet 10 day period ahead. The only model that hints at significant development is the extended CMC...with a Cape Verde system popping out very late in the period...and perhaps a hybrid system off the central East Coast...and of course I'm not a big fan of that model...so...

They all want to weaken the wave over the CV islands now...and unless some deep convection starts to pop in the next day or so this solution seems reasonable.

Could be that we make it very late in the month to early next month before we see our next player run onto the field...

MW

[CaluWxBill]

I am not really sure how strong the Azores high is relative to normal this time of year, but it certainly seems to be supressing the ITCZ to the point that convection waves are leaving the African coast at around 10° latitude and movine ESE to around 8°. A tropical cyclone has developed as close as 2° to the equator, but it dealt with a wierd sort of circumstances in which a monsoonal outflow rushed into the equatorial Pacific and somehow the storm formed, but in general, any cyclonic development, will have to be either from tail end of CF's off the Atlantic Coast, or Western Carribean/GOM development. We will see. I am not so certain that nothing will happen, just going to be difficult, I think one thing you may notice is a reduced SAL with waves coming out of the deep tropics of Africa rather than the border of tropical and desert region that has been common.

[Guest]

this could mean complete boredom over the next week if nothing forms....

[Guest]

Personally I doubt it. The seas are steaming we will see something very soon.

[jlauderdal]

This could end up as a very quiet 10 day period ahead. The only model that hints at significant development is the extended CMC...with a Cape Verde system popping out very late in the period...and perhaps a hybrid system off the central East Coast...and of course I'm not a big fan of that model...so...

They all want to weaken the wave over the CV islands now...and unless some deep convection starts to pop in the next day or so this solution seems reasonable.

Could be that we make it very late in the month to early next month before we see our next player run onto the field...

MW

Good. The last thing we need is a major landfalling hurricane in the next few weeks. That would be ugly as far as relief goes.

[HurricaneQueen]

I agree, Mike. We're just starting to get over the effects of Charley and I don't think too many of us are physically or mentally ready to face another. Plus.. it's time for us to take off again for St. Maarten for two weeks. Don't need another cane there. Everyone stay well and safe and I'll try to check in from time to time.

Lynn

[PurdueWx80]

Oops...posted twice...see below.

[PurdueWx80]

If you look at a water vapor image from the entire Atlantic, you can see all the dry air over the majority of the subtropical and tropical areas. But, with the wave near the Cape Verdes, there is a huge envelope of moisture, as evident in water vapor and precipitable water images from the east Atlantic. I think the dry air has been one factor (among many) in suppressing development over the last week. This new wave has an excellent chance at development, especially since it has a low level circulation. All we need next is convection around it's center and it could develop rapidly. Danielle formed in this manner, as there was very dry air from the Sahara injected into the oceanic areas, but then the wave that begat her had an extreme amount of moisture "protecting" her from most of that dry air. Just another thing to consider.