Thoughts on Estelle

[Derek Ortt]

Guidance remains in good agreement that the system should track to the south of Hawaii. However, one concern that I do have is that the global models are all indicating the WSW motion, assuming a weak depression or an open trough, while the ridge is not the strongerst on 500mb vorticity. The BAMD (yes, we all know how reliable that is), shows the potential for a more northerly track is this can remain as a deep system. In short, while it is mst likely that this will pass about 100-150 miles sotuh of South Point, residents of Hawaii still should keep an eye on this, especially if the current development trends continue

As an addition, recon is scheduled to investigate Sunday

[TS Zack]

The GFDL took the system over the Southern Isalnds of Hawaii last night. Today the system seems it should take a track further south.

[rainstorm]

keep an eye on it

[Matthew5]

Isn't the 26c line, the boarder of how warm it needs to be to support a tropical cyclones? Looking at this map it shows that over the islands the water is way above that temperature. I don't really expect this thing to weaken.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pac_anal.gif

[Derek Ortt]

a stronger system will track closer to the islands than will a weaker one due to the trough

[USAwx1]

Isn't the 26c line, the boarder of how warm it needs to be to support a tropical cyclones? Looking at this map it shows that over the islands the water is way above that temperature. I don't really expect this thing to weaken.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pac_anal.gif

Yes, you need SSTs of at least 80F (26-27C) Though a depth of at least 50m to provide sufficient latent heat for a tropical cyclone.

[rbaker]

usually around hawaiian waters, ssts are not quite supportive of tc's but just to the south of the big island they are. Most of the time if a big one is going to hit it comes in from the south to north, like Iniki die back several years ago, and slammed into Kauai.

[Rainband]

I remember the footage from Iniki, bad storm indeed

[Matthew5]

A Quastion since Hawaii, is apart of the United states if threaten would recon be in this system? In would the news/weather channel be live like they do when a tropical cyclone hits the lower 48? This is one of the rare times that a Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone could hit the United state.

[Hurricanehink]

Recon might go in if it poses a serious enough threat. They went into Kenna in 2002 (as it was a Cat. 5 bearing down on Mexico), so if Estelle is a powerful hurricane (maybe Cat. 2 or more) they may fly in. I think they would just fly out of the air force base there.

[Derek Ortt]

recon is shceduled for sunday when 6 hourly fixes will begin. The CPAC receives the same recon as does the Atlantic until storms pose no threat at all to the Islands

[LAwxrgal]

Is she the same storm as our Earl from the Atlantic?

[Guest]

It wont be no big deal just a gusty and maybe rainy day.

[Guest]

no earl has not gotten a sex change yet. My parents were in Hawaii for Iniki, they told me all about that one . I was on the big island for spring break, it was really nice too. the worst thing was that Kilauea started to erupt visually right after we left (well we saw it in the distance one night and it was awesome). Hopefully they get missed.

[Brent]

Is she the same storm as our Earl from the Atlantic?

No.

Ex-Earl is just off the coast of SE Mexico. It has a chance to develop, but if it does it'll be the F name(which is male).