Forecasting Weather and Sports Contest #3

[donsutherland1]

Excellence Defines Short-Range Forecasting Contest
Five Days of Forecasting Greatness

In past contests, one has seen the brilliant moment of greatness flicker. For a brief time, it pours forth its bright light of accuracy. Afterward, a sweeping rainstorm, a shift in the wind, or some other unforeseen development sends margins of error rising.

The just concluded Short-Range Forecasting contest was very different. The moment of greatness lingered across all five days. Not one, but all five participants beat the old record for lowest average margin of error (2.84°).

The participants also combined for a dazzling 23 perfect forecasts and an additional 33 forecasts with an error of just 1°. All said, 56 or 44.8% of the forecasters' combined 125 forecasts during this period had a margin of error of 1° or less.

The following are the statistics for each of the participants' 25 total forecasts in the Short-Range Chalenge:

Name.......................Perfect.....1° Error....% of Total
Don..........................8..............6..............56%
Philly_Eagles............4..............7..............44%
Tony.........................6..............7..............52%
MdWx.......................3..............7..............40%
NWIASpotter............2..............6..............32%

This bout of excellence is especially fitting as it occurs at the time of the ongoing 2004 Olympic Games where the best performances are rewarded with Gold Medals.

Now the question arises, will this excellence carry over into the Long-Range Forecasting Challenge which begins tomorrow. Or will the torch of greatness finally flicker and then wane over the grueling 11-day Long-Range contest?

High temperatures for August 20 were:
Atlanta: 88°
Baltimore: 91°
Detroit: 66°
Pittsburgh: 80°
Tampa: 90°

Final Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don..........................1.80°
Philly_Eagles............2.20°
Tony.........................2.20°
MdWx.......................2.44°
NWIASpotter............2.72°

[donsutherland1]

NWIASpotter Wins Baseball Contest
Dodgers 11th-Inning Victory Seals Contest Result

With earlier games, including an 8-3 victory by the Detroit Tigers, and losing efforts by the Orioles, Pirates, and Devil Rays, as the clock moved past Midnight, just two contestants remained locked in a bitter struggle.

By 1 am, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves were heading toward extra innings. If the Braves emerged with a win, Philly_Eagles would rise to the top with his pick of a combined 11-11 record for the baseball teams. If instead, the Dodgers would manage to beat the Braves, NWIASpotter would prevail after having picked the teams to combine for a 10-12 record.

Contest history argued strongly for the teams to have a combined losing record. After all, the first two contests saw just such outcomes. Still, as the last day of the sports challenge began, the teams were slightly above the magical .500 record.

As the Dodgers and Braves battled on late into the Los Angeles night, the combined record had fallen to 10-11. Just maybe, the Braves could snatch a victory and bring the combined record to the elusive .500.

In the top of the 9th, the Braves moved ahead 2-1. But that lead proved elusive. Eric Gagne could not hold it. The Dodgers tied the game. Then, the Dodgers pushed across a run in the 11th inning and the contest was finally finished.

NWIASpotter had won and become the first to correctly pick the final combined record for the teams.

Combined Record: 10-12

[NWIASpotter]

Congrats Don!! Looks like I fell apart at the end, but theres always next time. And by the way, be sure to enter in my contest by tonight!!

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, NWIASpotter. I have now entered my picks in your contest.

[donsutherland1]

Dog Days of August Not to Be Found as Long-Range Forecasting Contest Begins
Philly_Eagles Off to Good Start in Defense of Title

As the third Long-Range Forecasting Contest has begun, the calendar has advanced deep into August. Yet, as had been the case last month and the month before, the oppressive dog days of summer are nowhere to be found in the Contest cities.

With each passing day, it becomes ever more apparent that 2004 will not have experienced a long hot summer. However, if some of the computer guidance is correct, it could still salvage a short and not-so-hot summer.

This computer generated warmth is important. If summer heat can be harvested before the end of the month, it could have a dramatic impact on the outcome of the Long-Range Forecasting challenge. While some have played down the possible heat for this marathon 11-day period, others have at least assumed its possible return. Thus, final scores will either be chilled by a continuation of unseasonably cool weather or baked by the arrival of summerlike heat.

For now, the contest is off to a cool start. Moreover, a strong cold front is now clearing the East Coast and for at least the next 1-2 days, thermometers from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic will lower themselves to levels more familiar to early fall than late summer.

High Temperatures for August 21 were:
Atlanta: 83°
Baltimore: 80°
Detroit: 72°
Pittsburgh: 73°
Tampa: 89°

Highest Temperatures for the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta: 83°
Baltimore: 80°
Detroit: 72°
Pittsburgh: 73°
Tampa: 89°

Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don............................7.00°
Philly_Eagles..............7.00°
NWIASpotter..............8.60°
Tony.........................10.20°
MdWx.......................11.00°

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures Reach New Highs in Number of Cities
Participants Chisel Away at Margins of Error

The second day of the Long-Range Forecasting Challenge saw Atlanta, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Tampa establish new highs for the August 21-31 period. With each degree the mercury rose above its earlier high tide, the participants chiseled away at their average margin of error.

Whether or not the participants are sculpting a performance that will resemble a Michaelangelo masterpiece or whether a hollow bust will be the result remains to be seen.

For now, the temperatures have begun their ascent and the participants have begun to move forward in their pursuit of forecasting accuracy.

High Temperatures for August 22 were:
Atlanta: 85°
Baltimore: 79°
Detroit: 79°
Pittsburgh: 74°
Tampa: 92°

Highest Temperatures for the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta: 85°
Baltimore: 80°
Detroit: 79°
Pittsburgh: 74°
Tampa: 92°

Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don..........................4.80°
Philly_Eagles............4.80°
NWIASpotter............6.00°
Tony.........................7.60°
MdWx.......................8.40°

[donsutherland1]

Summer Begins to Make Presence Felt
Baltimore, Detroit, Pittsburgh Reach New Highs

At last, more summerlike warmth has spread into some of the Long-Range Contest's cities. Earlier today, Baltimore, Detroit, and Pittsburgh saw their thermometers reach new highs.

Although their high temperatures were not the sizzling heat that scorches those unlucky enough to have to be away from the beaches or air conditioned buildings, it was still quite noticeable in what has been an unseasonably cool summer. After today, all the Contest's cities have now had highs of at least 80°.

Baltimore led the way with a high of 88°. If the computer guidance proves accurate, Detroit and Pittsburgh should scale the thermometer to even loftier heights than today's 81° and 80° respectively.

High Temperatures for August 23 were:
Atlanta: 84°
Baltimore: 88°
Detroit: 81°
Pittsburgh: 80°
Tampa: 92°

Highest Temperatures for the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta: 85°
Baltimore: 88°
Detroit: 81°
Pittsburgh: 80°
Tampa: 92°

Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don..........................2.00°
Philly_Eagles............2.40°
NWIASpotter............3.20°
Tony.........................4.40°
MdWx.......................5.20°

[donsutherland1]

The Race Continues to Tighten
New Highs in Atlanta, Detroit & Pittsburgh Create 3-Way Tie for Lead

Just a brief note as I came back from a Broadway play and just had a quick chance to check the daily data.

Today saw the temperature rise to 87° in Atlanta, 83° in Detroit, and 84° in Pittsburgh. The result of these new highs created a three-way logjam at the top of what has become an extremely close race.

High Temperatures for August 24 were:
Atlanta: 87°
Baltimore: 86°
Detroit: 83°
Pittsburgh: 84°
Tampa: 87°

Highest Temperatures for the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta: 87°
Baltimore: 88°
Detroit: 83°
Pittsburgh: 84°
Tampa: 92°

Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don..........................1.60°
NWIASpotter............1.60°
Philly_Eagles............1.60°
Tony.........................2.80°
MdWx.......................3.60°

[NWIASpotter]

What broadway play did you go to???

[donsutherland1]

I went to Aida. It's nearing the end of its run, so I thought I'd go see it.

[donsutherland1]

NWIASpotter Surges into the Lead
Tony Lurks Just Behind

For much of this summer, Detroit has been starved for genuine seasonal warmth. Yesterday proved different.

Under an August sun that performed up to the month's standards, the mercury in the Motor City powered up to 87°. As a result of this revved-up thermometer, the standings were swept into a new order.

Gone were those that had battled or led for the first few days. Into the lead was NWIASpotter with Tony close behind.

Now the question arises: Did NWIASpotter spot an opportunity for victory in his forecast and did he just seize that opportunity? Will more changes lie just ahead?

With six more days left, much could still change.

High Temperatures for August 25 were:
Atlanta: 83°
Baltimore: 81°
Detroit: 87°
Pittsburgh: 84°
Tampa: 90°

Highest Temperatures for the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta: 87°
Baltimore: 88°
Detroit: 87°
Pittsburgh: 84°
Tampa: 92°

Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

NWIASpotter............2.00°
Don..........................2.40°
Philly_Eagles............2.40°
Tony.........................2.40°
MdWx.......................2.80°

[donsutherland1]

NWIASpotter Holds Onto Lead
Participants March in Place as No New Highs are Recorded

The Long-Range Forecasting Challenge has now moved past its midpoint. As a result, each passing day is now a reminder that time is beginning to dwindle for those seeking to seize the lead.

Yesterday's big discussion was about the possible track of now Hurricane Frances (DT has provided a number of excellent discussions on this matter). The synoptic pattern and some of the model guidance continue to point toward the growing likelihood that Frances could make landfall in the United States. The prospects of safe recurvature appear to be falling.

On the high temperature front on which participants forecasts' are judged, there was as much inaction as there was action on the Frances front. Not a single new high temperature was recorded. Nevertheless, a few cities reached for new highs but fell just short. Among those cities were Atlanta and Detroit.

As a result, the standings remained unchanged and NWIASpotter held the lead for a second day.

With five days left, there is still time for change. For now, though, that remains somewhat theoretical, as a stable order seems to be trying to establish itself.

High Temperatures for August 26 were:
Atlanta: 86°
Baltimore: 84°
Detroit: 85°
Pittsburgh: 77°
Tampa: 90°

Highest Temperatures for the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta: 87°
Baltimore: 88°
Detroit: 87°
Pittsburgh: 84°
Tampa: 92°

Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

NWIASpotter............2.00°
Don..........................2.40°
Philly_Eagles............2.40°
Tony.........................2.40°
MdWx.......................2.80°

[donsutherland1]

New Highs Continue to Accumulate Slowly
NWIA Maintains Lead; Margins of Error Decrease

Today saw the city formerly nicknamed "Hotlanta" reach a new high of 88°. As a result of this warm but not extreme maximum temperature, the participants saw their average margin of error fall.

At this point in time, much as excellence ruled the Short-Range Forecasting Contest, forecasting accuracy has continued to sizzle in the Long-Range version. At this point in time, all participants are under the record low margin of error of 2.80°.

As thermometers in Baltimore and Pittsburgh aim for new highs this weekend, this could change somewhat. However, it does appear that whomever prevails will destroy the old record.

Heading into the weekend, NWIASpotter maintains his lead but with new high temperatures likely in at least some of the contest cities, there remains plenty of drama as the contest slowly winds toward its conclusion on Tuesday.

High Temperatures for August 27 were:
Atlanta: 88°
Baltimore: 86°
Detroit: 87°
Pittsburgh: 84°
Tampa: 91°

Highest Temperatures for the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta: 88°
Baltimore: 88°
Detroit: 87°
Pittsburgh: 84°
Tampa: 92°

Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

NWIASpotter............1.80°
Don..........................2.20°
Philly_Eagles............2.20°
Tony.........................2.20°
MdWx.......................2.60°

[donsutherland1]

Tony Sizzles in 90° Heat
Tony Grabs the Lead as Atlanta and Baltimore Heat Up

As difficult as it might be to believe, Atlanta and Baltimore each reached 90° for the first time since the Long-Range Forecasting Challenge commenced on August 21. Under the broiling late August sun, NWIASpotter's lead melted away as Tony soared into the lead with the rising thermometers.

As the contest heads toward its conclusion on Tuesday, it appears that neither Gaston nor a slowly advancing cold front will have any impact on the standings. Instead, tomorrow will see Baltimore have a shot at raising its maximum temperature to new heights for the Contest. Atlanta could make a run at a new high, as well.

Farther west, Detroit and Pittsburgh's thermometers will be capped and it is entirely possible that they have seen their highest temperatures for the contest.

Consequently, Tony appears to be in a strong position to try to finish off the contest and possibly destroy the existing record for smallest error in the process.

High Temperatures for August 28 were:
Atlanta: 90°
Baltimore: 90°
Detroit: 78°
Pittsburgh: 84°
Tampa: 91°

Highest Temperatures for the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta: 90°
Baltimore: 90°
Detroit: 87°
Pittsburgh: 84°
Tampa: 92°

Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Tony.........................1.40°
MdWx.......................1.80°
NWIASpotter............1.80°
Don..........................2.20°
Philly_Eagles............2.20°

[NWIASpotter]

Wow, once again I lose the lead in the closing days. I'm glad to see that you have been entering in my contest. It is appreciated!!

[donsutherland1]

It's always fun to enter the contests. Even if you did lose the lead, your overall score is still outstanding.

[donsutherland1]

Tony Continues to Thrive in Steambath
Holds Onto Lead Through Final Contest Weekend

Today saw very warm and humid conditions embrace a number of the contest cities, including Atlanta, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. While such conditions might be oppressive, Tony's has thrived in such conditions, as he maintained the lead he gained yesterday.

Under the cover of dewpoints rising into the lower and even middle 70s, it might have appeared that new highs were falling across many of the contest cities. In fact, temperatures were falling short even as discomfort levels were soaring to new highs.

As a result, the standings remain unchanged with just two days remaining. Already, in the wake of a slowly-advancing cold front, Detroit remained locked in the 60s all day. That front should be moving farther east and reaching the Appalachians later tomorrow.

While it could tap into Gaston's moisture and possibly Hermine's later on to bring copious rainfall to parts of eastern New England, its impact on Pittsburgh will be to cap temperatures there.

With little prospect for new high temperatures ahead, Tony now appears to be in the driver's seat as the contest heads for the stretch.

High Temperatures for August 29 were:
Atlanta: 87°
Baltimore: 89°
Detroit: 69°
Pittsburgh: 82°
Tampa: 91°

Highest Temperatures for the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta: 90°
Baltimore: 90°
Detroit: 87°
Pittsburgh: 84°
Tampa: 92°

Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Tony.........................1.40°
MdWx.......................1.80°
NWIASpotter............1.80°
Don..........................2.20°
Philly_Eagles............2.20°

[donsutherland1]

Gaston's Torrents Have Little Impact on Contest
Standings Remain Unchanged Heading into Final Day

What is again Tropical Storm Gaston meandered through North Carolina and Virginia today, bringing torrential rains. Parts of the Richmond area saw more than 10" of rain. And if the deluge of almost Biblical proportions were not enough, Gaston also threw some tornadoes into the mix.

Amidst Gaston's watery antics, the contest cities were almost a Paradise of calm. By day's end, the earlier order of high temperatures held for another day and the Contest's standings remained locked in place heading into its concluding day.

By the time the curtain falls later tomorrow, it appears all but certain that the excellence that shattered accuracy records in the Short-Range Contest will also demolish the records for the Long-Range Contest.

The only questions to be resolved are who will win and how microscopic will his error be?

High Temperatures for August 30 were:
Atlanta: 88°
Baltimore: 85°
Detroit: 76°
Pittsburgh: 70°
Tampa: 88°

Highest Temperatures for the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta: 90°
Baltimore: 90°
Detroit: 87°
Pittsburgh: 84°
Tampa: 92°

Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Tony.........................1.40°
MdWx.......................1.80°
NWIASpotter............1.80°
Don..........................2.20°
Philly_Eagles............2.20°

[donsutherland1]

Tony Cruises to Long-Term Forecasting Win
Rewrites Record Book

In a performance that soared higher than the highest temperatures for the month of August in the Contest's cities, Tony completed a victory that destroyed the old record for forecasting error. With an error of just 1.40°, Tony's long-range forecast proved extraordinary. If there were a Saffir-Simpson Scale for the Contest, this feat would have ranked at Category 5

The final day of August, much like many days this month, saw no extreme heat. In fact, Tampa Bay just reached 90° while none of the other cities could break out of the 80s. Detroit and Pittsburgh chilled for another day in the 70s.

With no new high temperatures, the participants could only watch the hourglass run dry. But while the proverbial curtain has fallen on the August contest, opportunity will rise anew in September.

All said, August was a month of shining performances. In every category--from Short-Range Forecasting to Long-Range Forecasting to Sports--records were demolished as if forecasting offered no rigor whatsoever.

With Summer waning and the changing of the seasons approaching, the level of difficulty could well be on the rise next month.

Look for the next forecasting challenge over the same timeframe in September.

High Temperatures for August 31 were:
Atlanta: 87°
Baltimore: 84°
Detroit: 79°
Pittsburgh: 75°
Tampa: 90°

Highest Temperatures for the August 21-31 Period:
Atlanta: 90°
Baltimore: 90°
Detroit: 87°
Pittsburgh: 84°
Tampa: 92°

Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Tony.........................1.40°
MdWx.......................1.80°
NWIASpotter............1.80°
Don..........................2.20°
Philly_Eagles............2.20°

Winners of the August 2004 Forecasting Challenge:

• Short-Range Forecasting Challenge: Don: 1.80° Average Error
• Long-Range Forecasting Challenge: Tony: 1.40° Average Error
• Sports Challenge (Baseball): NWIASpotter: 0.000 Winning Percentage Error

Many congratulations to all who participated. Great job!

[NWIASpotter]

Thanks for the great contest!! And congrats on the short term forecast win.