00z GFS all over new CV Wave

[mobilebay]

The new 00Z GFS is jumping all over the new CV wave through the first 78 Hours. The model is still running and I will post more later. BY the way nice call MWatkins.

[mobilebay]

GFS has it along 40w in 114 hours as an 1000MB low. Pretty deep for the GFS. Also, there is not much of a northerly motion with this feature. I would post the link but I have not learned how yet.

[Anonymous]

GFS has it along 40w in 114 hours as an 1000MB low. Pretty deep for the GFS. Also, there is not much of a northerly motion with this feature. I would post the link but I have not learned how yet.

Sounds interesting. Should be fun to watch! You can use the url tags are just copy the link and then paste it into the text box when you make a post.

[mobilebay]

The later runs gets it as deep as about 994MB before another trough along the US east Coast weakens the Sub-Tropical ridge to the north and allows a recurvature, starting along 45w. However, this is a looooong way out (about 200 hours).

[mobilebay]

GFS has it along 40w in 114 hours as an 1000MB low. Pretty deep for the GFS. Also, there is not much of a northerly motion with this feature. I would post the link but I have not learned how yet.

Sounds interesting. Should be fun to watch! You can use the url tags are just copy the link and then paste it into the text box when you make a post.

Thanks for help Hurri.

[Guest]

this looks interesting... maybe it will be our next major. but you never know.

[mobilebay]

Even more interesting is the ooZ CMC also developes this wave and moves it west through 144 hours.

[MWatkins]

Hmmm...well thanks MobileBay...but it doesn't count until/if the development actually occurs...lol.

However...we are starting to see some concensus...the 00Z UKMET model calls from some development in 66 hours from now...right in the neighborhood of where the CV wave should be...

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

Haven't seen the full run yet but the tropical model is hot off the press...from something like 9 minutes ago.

MW

[mobilebay]

It must have been something that triggerd these models at the same time. Observations from West Africa perhaps. I mean Its like somebody turned on a switch at 00Z. Mike you may remember me from GOPBI>

[Guest]

I have a feeling that the long range GFs are not doing well with this potential system , and haven't been. I think if it develops a bit slower and further from CV it certainly can travel quite a bit further west than advertised by GFs. Take a peek at the mid and upper level comparisons between med and long range models...