Going on Nikolai's Blog!

[USAwx1]

Also computer models in 90' showed the Earth warming 6 degrees in 100 years, now that is down to 3 degrees and is continuing to fall

Ah, now were on the right track here… Could it be that it's the majority of the problem? I think so.

[califas]

Besides the ocean cycles, which we have come to better understand, especially in the past 10 years, more research desperately needs to be done on the longer-term solar cycles (beyond the 11 year periods) as it is likely those may have an equally important role in climactic ups and downs over the course of a century or more.

I agree that more needs to be done on a farther outlook re sun cycles. Recent studies from satellites showed that the earth is cooling slightly because of constant cloud cover. This makes sense because no direct sunlight can filter in thus warming the earth. However, the study showed that while there were more cloud covers, the earth is somehow warming, hence, the ice caps melting, icebergs melting, etc. Their is a satellite right now that is gathering data to show what is actually go on. This issue cannot just be forgotten or set aside and simply point to oscillation changes. It is these changes that will go haywire and bring about change. And no I don't mean "DAY AFTER TOMORROW" change, but when we do see the change all will be to late. I just believe today's weather will become more fierce and stronger as time goes on. I WILL WATCH.

[Guest]

well said califas, my opinion on this issue is like that. We need to monitor the situation for changes, and we need to be ready for if/when they occur.

[califas]

well said califas, my opinion on this issue is like that. We need to monitor the situation for changes, and we need to be ready for if/when they occur.

exactly. What happens when you have more cloud cover. You got it "greenhouse effect." This is what is happening now. I don't mean instant ice age, I mean things will get hotter and hotter. The weather will become more extreme.

[NorthGaWeather]

Did you not just read the article. Weather balloons and satellites prove the atmosphere is not warming at any rate near what the european scientist say. The weather will probaley become more fierce and stronger because its been doing that since the dawn of time.

The global warming thing is just a big political debate now. Europe says we are warming based on computer models, which assume things will remain a constant, which never will happen, and data "they have adjusted". Whereas NOAA confirms that we aren't warming as much, if any.

[califas]

Did you not just read the article. Weather balloons and satellites prove the atmosphere is not warming at any rate near what the european scientist say. The weather will probaley become more fierce and stronger because its been doing that since the dawn of time.

The global warming thing is just a big political debate now. Europe says we are warming based on computer models, which assume things will remain a constant, which never will happen, and data "they have adjusted". Whereas NOAA confirms that we aren't warming as much, if any.

Hmm, we are not warming. Ice caps melting at alarming rates, glaciers metling at an unheard of pace, villages being swamped with flooding re: India. If we are not warming NorthGA, then please explain as you would in a thesis why towns are flooding and glaciers melting? Cannot blame oscillation.

[USAwx1]

Read my post about the ice sheet breakup

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=30357

[califas]

Read my post about the ice sheet breakup

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=30357

I see your point

"Antarctic ice shelf disintegrating

David Perlman, Chronicle Science Editor
Wednesday, March 20, 2002



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------






A gigantic floating ice shelf has shattered explosively off the coast of Antarctica, casting a plume of thousands of icebergs adrift across the continent's Weddell Sea, polar scientists announced yesterday.

Big enough to blanket all of San Francisco Bay plus most of the Delta, the shelf's breakup was caused by unusually high temperatures during the Antarctic summer, scientists said.

The 12,000-year-old mass -- more than 650 feet thick and covering at least 1,250 square miles -- broke apart in just 35 days.

The event is evidence of a warming trend that has continued for at least 50 years, and perhaps for centuries, the scientists said. And the surprising warmth threatens the integrity of other ice shelves all around the huge continent, they said.

But whether it represents yet another sign of global warming because of worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases, the scientists are not so sure.

"We can't say that CO2 or the other greenhouse gases have been dive-bombing Antarctica," said Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Center in an interview, "but we have our suspicions. It will take a lot more evidence and a lot more worldwide climate modeling before we can say anything for certain."

More breakups of the major ice shelves surrounding the continent could occur if coming Antarctica seasons are warm, Scambos said.

He and his colleagues say the abrupt breakup of the huge ice shelf known as Larsen B on the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula surprised them with its speed. They have been monitoring the same floating mass of ice by satellite for the past five years and have seen it lose a total of 2,200 square miles from its original size in a series of smaller and slower breakups year by year.

WARMING OVER 50 YEARS

Other ice shelves all around the vast southern continent have been breaking up since the late 1940s, according to an international team of specialists from Britain, Argentina, Austria, Germany and the United States who have been monitoring the region. Average Antarctic temperatures have risen by nearly 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the past 50 years, the scientists report.

The first big chunks of Larsen B began breaking up in March 1998, and scientists, including Scambos and glaciologist Christina Hulbe of Hamilton College in Clinton, N.Y., saw that melted water on the thick shelf's surface was absorbing solar radiation intensely and thereby contributing more warmth to the melting process.

The next year, parts of the Larsen B ice shelf and the Wilkins shelf lost a total of more than 1,100 square miles, and Scambos warned that the two shelves were "in full retreat" that year.

Then, just two years ago, a massive chunk of Antarctica's Ross Ice Shelf broke off only 200 miles east of the main American scientific research station at McMurdo Sound. It created one of the largest icebergs ever seen, measuring 170 miles long and 25 miles wide and covering an area nearly as large as Connecticut.


WIDE GLACIER CRACK REPORTED
In January 2001, a NASA satellite detected a wide crack melting on the Pine Island glacier along the coast of west Antarctica, which was shrinking in height as its surface melted.

At the same time, the long tongue of the Ninnis Glacier on Antarctica's east coast, which once extended nearly 90 miles out into the Southern Ocean south of Tasmania, broke up and "calved" a single huge iceberg that, in turn, quickly broke into two separate bergs.

Many scientists seeking to pin down the effects of global warming have warned that melting ice on Antarctica and around the North Pole could cause a devastating rise in sea levels that would drown low-lying coastal regions of continents around the world.

While the breakup of Antarctica's ice shelves so far would have little or no effect on sea levels, the shelves act as buttresses, or braking systems, for glaciers on the continent, according to Scambos.

The Ross Ice Shelf itself is the main outlet for the huge West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which encompasses several large glaciers, Scambos noted -- and if those those glaciers were ever to melt into the ocean, they would add the equivalent of 15 feet of sea level to the world's waters.


I don't think SUV'S emissions play a huge role here. I don't see in the article pointing to decadal or oscillation changes. The atmospheric circulation is relatively uniform in Antarctica.

[NorthGaWeather]

Did you not just read the article. Weather balloons and satellites prove the atmosphere is not warming at any rate near what the european scientist say. The weather will probaley become more fierce and stronger because its been doing that since the dawn of time.

The global warming thing is just a big political debate now. Europe says we are warming based on computer models, which assume things will remain a constant, which never will happen, and data "they have adjusted". Whereas NOAA confirms that we aren't warming as much, if any.

Hmm, we are not warming. Ice caps melting at alarming rates, glaciers metling at an unheard of pace, villages being swamped with flooding re: India. If we are not warming NorthGA, then please explain as you would in a thesis why towns are flooding and glaciers melting? Cannot blame oscillation.

I hear about a major flood in india every year. They average alot of rain over there also. There was some report a few weeks ago about the north pole breaking up and actually the ship wasn't even close to the North pole. The polar ice caps have actually increased in depth over the past few years according to some story on CNN a few weeks ago. You do know 90-95% of a glacier is underwater and Eurpoean scientist are over hyping this situation. USAwx had a great post in that link, you should read it.

[NorthGaWeather]

WARMING OVER 50 YEARS

Other ice shelves all around the vast southern continent have been breaking up since the late 1940s, according to an international team of specialists from Britain, Argentina, Austria, Germany and the United States who have been monitoring the region. Average Antarctic temperatures have risen by nearly 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the past 50 years, the scientists report.

4.5 F???? How about some proof to back that up. I would like to see the data that supports this because I seriously doubt it.

[USAwx1]

The first big chunks of Larsen B began breaking up in March 1998

yep, at exactly the same time as the PDO switched to cold following the record El Nino of the 1997-98 winter.

and scientists, including Scambos and glaciologist Christina Hulbe of Hamilton College in Clinton, N.Y., saw that melted water on the thick shelf's surface was absorbing solar radiation intensely and thereby contributing more warmth to the melting process.

We were trending toward the solar (sunspot) maximum of Solar cycle # 23 during the 1998-2000 period, during these periods 10.7cm radio flux is maximized, which correlates well with decreased cloud cover.

[califas]

Did you not just read the article. Weather balloons and satellites prove the atmosphere is not warming at any rate near what the european scientist say. The weather will probaley become more fierce and stronger because its been doing that since the dawn of time.

The global warming thing is just a big political debate now. Europe says we are warming based on computer models, which assume things will remain a constant, which never will happen, and data "they have adjusted". Whereas NOAA confirms that we aren't warming as much, if any.

Hmm, we are not warming. Ice caps melting at alarming rates, glaciers metling at an unheard of pace, villages being swamped with flooding re: India. If we are not warming NorthGA, then please explain as you would in a thesis why towns are flooding and glaciers melting? Cannot blame oscillation.

I hear about a major flood in india every year. They average alot of rain over there also. There was some report a few weeks ago about the north pole breaking up and actually the ship wasn't even close to the North pole. The polar ice caps have actually increased in depth over the past few years according to some story on CNN a few weeks ago. You do know 90-95% of a glacier is underwater and Eurpoean scientist are over hyping this situation. USAwx had a great post in that link, you should read it.

I did it read it! And he has very valid point. But you see, I am not an expert on stuff like this, so I have to go on reports and credible newsworthy outlets to read stuff like this. If the meteorologists are so sure that it is not global warming, but simply cycles, then they should come out more often and display that. If you do not, then what are we the public going to really believe?

[USAwx1]

Did you not just read the article. Weather balloons and satellites prove the atmosphere is not warming at any rate near what the european scientist say. The weather will probaley become more fierce and stronger because its been doing that since the dawn of time.

The global warming thing is just a big political debate now. Europe says we are warming based on computer models, which assume things will remain a constant, which never will happen, and data "they have adjusted". Whereas NOAA confirms that we aren't warming as much, if any.

Hmm, we are not warming. Ice caps melting at alarming rates, glaciers metling at an unheard of pace, villages being swamped with flooding re: India. If we are not warming NorthGA, then please explain as you would in a thesis why towns are flooding and glaciers melting? Cannot blame oscillation.

I hear about a major flood in india every year. They average alot of rain over there also. There was some report a few weeks ago about the north pole breaking up and actually the ship wasn't even close to the North pole. The polar ice caps have actually increased in depth over the past few years according to some story on CNN a few weeks ago. You do know 90-95% of a glacier is underwater and Eurpoean scientist are over hyping this situation. USAwx had a great post in that link, you should read it.

I did it read it! And he has very valid point. But you see, I am not an expert on stuff like this, so I have to go on reports and credible newsworthy outlets to read stuff like this. If the meteorologists are so sure that it is not global warming, but simply cycles, then they should come out more often and display that. If you do not, then what are we the public going to really believe?

Then you should also read some of the published info by Dr. Gray. That will elaborate more on the points which i touched on in that thread concerning the ocean cycles.

BTW, thanks NorthGA for the kind words!

[NorthGaWeather]

Did you not just read the article. Weather balloons and satellites prove the atmosphere is not warming at any rate near what the european scientist say. The weather will probaley become more fierce and stronger because its been doing that since the dawn of time.

The global warming thing is just a big political debate now. Europe says we are warming based on computer models, which assume things will remain a constant, which never will happen, and data "they have adjusted". Whereas NOAA confirms that we aren't warming as much, if any.

Hmm, we are not warming. Ice caps melting at alarming rates, glaciers metling at an unheard of pace, villages being swamped with flooding re: India. If we are not warming NorthGA, then please explain as you would in a thesis why towns are flooding and glaciers melting? Cannot blame oscillation.

I hear about a major flood in india every year. They average alot of rain over there also. There was some report a few weeks ago about the north pole breaking up and actually the ship wasn't even close to the North pole. The polar ice caps have actually increased in depth over the past few years according to some story on CNN a few weeks ago. You do know 90-95% of a glacier is underwater and Eurpoean scientist are over hyping this situation. USAwx had a great post in that link, you should read it.

I did it read it! And he has very valid point. But you see, I am not an expert on stuff like this, so I have to go on reports and credible newsworthy outlets to read stuff like this. If the meteorologists are so sure that it is not global warming, but simply cycles, then they should come out more often and display that. If you do not, then what are we the public going to really believe?

American Mets are saying this is cycles. Its the Europeans that are saying this is the end. The Eurpoeans haven't been known for being incredibly reliable.

[donsutherland1]

The entire report can be found at:
http://reports.eea.eu.int/climate_repor ... limate.pdf

[donsutherland1]

That was a very informative post, USAwx1.