UKMET at 12 UTC plots for east atlantic wave

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cycloneye
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UKMET at 12 UTC plots for east atlantic wave

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 21, 2004 4:38 pm

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 11.2N 22.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 23.08.2004 11.2N 22.0W WEAK

00UTC 24.08.2004 11.5N 24.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.08.2004 11.4N 27.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.08.2004 11.5N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2004 11.9N 31.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.08.2004 12.2N 33.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.08.2004 12.9N 35.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2004 13.7N 37.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.08.2004 14.7N 38.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

Of course nothing is like a stone about this wave because first it has to have a well defined low and second convection has to develop near or over a center. But right now the wave looks good with a big structure form.The interrogants for the next few days will be how the ridges and troughs behave and by then we may have a better idea about a future track and intensity.
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#2 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 21, 2004 4:43 pm

do we have a preliminary guess on whether or not this will make it across the atlantic? just an educated guess. And do we have a clue about how intense this may get?
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#3 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Aug 21, 2004 6:08 pm

It sure has a huge envelope, but I think there is some shear ahead of it. This time of year, though, development is always possible.
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Derek Ortt

#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 21, 2004 6:09 pm

That is not the UKMET global model, but is a seperate product (Bracknell)
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#5 Postby obxhurricane » Sat Aug 21, 2004 8:01 pm

This system WILL be our next classification in the Atlantic.

Looks to me at first glance that there will be a slight weakening in the ridge in a few days...but will likely fill in after that. Look for a strong system NE of the Islands in a week.

Just my initial observation...please don't flame.
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