wave in Caribbean

stormandan28 · #1 Postby **stormandan28** » Sat Aug 21, 2004 6:52 pm

I think if this develops it will go towards the Yucatan channel and then possible affect Texas or Louisiana.

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Aug 21, 2004 6:55 pm

wouldn't count on any development from this :wink:

#3 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Aug 21, 2004 6:55 pm

It had a pretty good output of convection for the past 24 hours or so, but late this afternoon and tonight it has lost most of its convection and looks rather pathetic at the moment.... if it develops, its not going to be anytime soon...

#4 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Aug 21, 2004 7:11 pm

This could be the type of thing Joe Bastardi thinks will happen next week. Because of the pattern, he says any tropical wave that can feed heat/moisture into the front (currently over the S and SE US...to be over the ocean and Gulf in a day or two) will have to be watched. So even if this doesn't develop on it's own, it is headed in the general direction of that front.

LaBreeze · #5 Postby **LaBreeze** » Sat Aug 21, 2004 7:19 pm

Where, in your opinion would it meet with the front?

#6 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Sat Aug 21, 2004 7:23 pm

Wow, it's looking pathetic right now! It looked OK earlier, but now... It does remind me of Charley. It like died the first night, but then it fired convection near the center.

#7 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Aug 21, 2004 7:36 pm

LaBreeze wrote:Where, in your opinion would it meet with the front?

Well looking at a few model prognostications, the best chance would likely be in the central or eastern Gulf, although I'm not sure the front will push that far South considering how the ridge is forecast to build in that general vicinity. Of note is the dry air ahead of the wave now..that will likely hamper too much development too quickly, as will shear and it's adjacency to South America.

rbaker · #8 Postby **rbaker** » Sat Aug 21, 2004 7:36 pm

how many times have we seen this happen this year in the same region- the caribbean. In some cases they just dissapate, and others like Charley continue on get into a more favorable area and develop. We will just have to wait to see what transpires in the w. caribbean. This may be temp. or may refire right back up.

Nimbus · #9 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Aug 21, 2004 7:38 pm

Convection flared all morning then quit near 68W.
Since that is not a particularly favorable area for development anyways it should be no surprise.

The trough down the road looks kind of weak and may just enhance the outflow if the system develops a circulation.

Kind of looked like Mobile might be a likely landfall earlier but now that the convection has stopped firing maybe a more westerly track is in order.

LaBreeze · #10 Postby **LaBreeze** » Sat Aug 21, 2004 7:44 pm

This long-time resident of the Gulf Coast of Louisiana thanks you all for your early thoughts on this system. I do respect all of your views, especially you PurdueWx80 as well as Nimbus. Keep us informed with your thoughts and ideas.

#11 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Aug 21, 2004 8:22 pm

Thanks LaBreeze.

8 pm EDT discussion from NHC:

Caribbean Sea...
upper low is near 20n85w with troughing from central Cuba to N
Belize. Instability beneath the trough is allowing for isolated
tstms N of 18n W of 80w. Mid/upper dry air over the central
Caribbean W of 73w N of 13n is keeping the area mostly dry.
Upper high is building into the E Caribbean with center near
Barbados. Divergence on NW side of the high allowed tstms to
develop near the tropical wave along 70w. The GFS indicates a
generally favorable pattern for tstm reformation is likely
tomorrow as the wave moves near Jamaica.

wave in Caribbean

wave in Caribbean

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