Chaba Advisories

[lilbump3000]

I wonder how these storms get so strong over there. Also i want to note them be some big storms yet close by each other. I thought when storms are close to each other like them to are, one might kill the other one.

[Matthew5]

Things work different over there

[Matthew5]

205 knots=236 mph

[PurdueWx80]

Typhoon Tip had a MEASURED 870mb. The 879mb for Chaba is an estimate based upon satellite derived winds.

Steve

It's amazing how much lower the pressures can get in the West Pacific. They are naturally lower there anyway, but 870 mb, my goodness!

[PurdueWx80]

The scariest part (other than a 170 kt sustained storm) is that they are forecasting it to be much closer to Tokyo now, and as a Cat 4. I hope Japan is prepared to evacuate 20 million people.

[Brent]

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What were Tip's sustained winds?

[whereverwx]

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What were Tip's sustained winds?

190 mph

[Matthew5]

170 knots=195 mph this would over take Tips!

[Derecho]

The scariest part (other than a 170 kt sustained storm) is that they are forecasting it to be much closer to Tokyo now, and as a Cat 4. I hope Japan is prepared to evacuate 20 million people.

There wouldn't be any particular need to evacuate that many people.

[Guest]

this one could be a direct hit on Tokyo, and it would still be strong. Tokyo/Yokohama is pretty low level, and the bay that their on would funnel up the water creating massive surge. But I wouldn't evacuate except right next to the coast, because its kinda hard to move 4-5 million people (Tokyo-Yokohama has over 30 million, I guess about 4-5 million right on coast)

[senorpepr]

this one could be a direct hit on Tokyo, and it would still be strong. Tokyo/Yokohama is pretty low level, and the bay that their on would funnel up the water creating massive surge. But I wouldn't evacuate except right next to the coast, because its kinda hard to move 4-5 million people (Tokyo-Yokohama has over 30 million, I guess about 4-5 million right on coast)

Another thing you have to consider is their building codes are more strict to prepare for such storms.

[PurdueWx80]

this one could be a direct hit on Tokyo, and it would still be strong. Tokyo/Yokohama is pretty low level, and the bay that their on would funnel up the water creating massive surge. But I wouldn't evacuate except right next to the coast, because its kinda hard to move 4-5 million people (Tokyo-Yokohama has over 30 million, I guess about 4-5 million right on coast)

Another thing you have to consider is their building codes are more strict to prepare for such storms.

They are also quite strict because they have earthquakes almost daily.

From the other poster (Derecho I think), I said 20 million because there are approximately that many people in the Tokyo vicinity. Guess it's closer to 30 million. The whole SE coast of Japan is very densely populated, and not every home in the area can sustain a nasty typhoon.

[Cyclone Runner]

Finally got some sleep, and when I woke up, Chaba's Eye had just barely moved Northwest, but at least now the eye wall and central feeder bands are away from the islands. We had a similar situation in the South Pacific when Super Cyclone Zoe sat over Anuta and Tikopia for nearly a day, and there was not even a leave left on a plant after that, so the damage on Rota much be severe to catastrophic.

I am not getting any news out of the Marianas as power is widely if not completely out, but KUAM in Guam keeps publishing small new stories like this:

Guam feeling 80 MPH winds from Chaba; GPD rescues stranded teens; shelters housing nearly 2,000

by Sabrina Salas Matanane, KUAM News
Monday, August 23, 2004

According to the Office of Civil Defense, officers with the Guam Police Department rescued three stranded teenagers from Lada Gardens who were seeking shelter when their vehicle broke down. Mayor's offices across the island continue to remain open for village assistance.

Meanwhile, the number of island residents seeking shelter in designated emergency shelters has increased to 1,986 residents.

As of 12 Monday morning the eyewall of Typhoon Chaba was pounding the island of Rota, with winds there reportedly as high as 135 miles per hour. The center of typhoon Chaba was located by radar near latitude 14.5 degrees north and longitude 145.3 degrees east. This is about 80 miles northeast of Guam, 30 miles east-northeast of Rota, 40 miles south of Tinian and 50 miles south-southwest of Saipan.

Maximum sustained winds are 120 MPH with gusts up to 150 MPH. Typhoon Chaba is moving westward at 12 MPH.

Guam remains in Condition of Readiness "1", and the island is currently experiencing damaging winds of 55-65 MPH with gusts up to 80 MPH. Winds may be higher depending on the exact position of the storm's eyewall.

http://www.kuam.com/

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

http://www.afap.org/apcedi
http://www.afap.org/
http://www.birdquest.net/

[Cyclone Runner]

Super Typhoon Chaba would be better named Godzilla. It now looks like it was building into a Category 5 when it was sitting ontop of Rota. Here is the latest from JTWC. Look at the sustained winds of 170kts with gusts to 205.



Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

http://www.afap.org/apcedi
http://www.afap.org/
http://www.birdquest.net/

[Matthew5]

Is the Typhoon still getting stronger?

[Aslkahuna]

The latest advisory from JTWC has STY Chaba at 155kt and forecast to hit 170kt gusting to 205kt. This would have Chaba pushing the limits as to how low the pressure could get at Sea Level since the wind/pressure relationship for WPAC storms this time of year has 858mb for a 170kt storm this is in the same realm as the in-situ pressure measurement in a F-4 tornado last year. Extrapolation from minimum H7 heights observed by Recon gave pressures in this range in June '75 (857mb) and Tip '79 (864mb) but the measured pressures from the dropsondes were higher though admittedly the lowest pressure in June was not measured at the center but under the inner edge of the eyewall since they couldn't get the drop at the center due to the very small eye (3 miles in diameter) in June. The advisory also holds Chaba a STY through 120 hours which would smash the current record in WPAC for Super status and has the storm at 135kt at 32N latitude both of which are pushing the envelope.

Steve

[Guest]

now that its passed the islands, lets hope it doesnt get a direct hit on tokyo. Does anyone ghave any information on what would heppen to tokyo with a typhoon that has winds of 130-150 mph?

[Derecho]

now that its passed the islands, lets hope it doesnt get a direct hit on tokyo. Does anyone ghave any information on what would heppen to tokyo with a typhoon that has winds of 130-150 mph?

A heck of a lot less than would happen to Miami or New Orleans in a similar storm.

And anyway, the JTWC intensity forecast, particularly as it approaches Japan, seems fairly inflated to me.

[Brent]

Is the Typhoon still getting stronger?

Yes. It's at 180 mph sustained right now and forecast to strengthen to about 205 mph before starting to weaken.

[HurricaneLover]

does a major hurricane or supertyphoon have ever hit Tokio?