Indeed it is! TWO 5:30 p.m.....

[dixiebreeze]

The 5:30 TWO notes the CV wave is coming together and IR bears that out:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NEARLY STATIONARY REMNANTS OF DANIELLE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
RE-DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

[dixiebreeze]

Definitely trying to organize this evening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[southerngale]

Is it likely to be a fish?

[Anonymous]

Is it likely to be a fish?

Hopefully so!

[Brent]

Is it likely to be a fish?

I don't think it'll recurve before the islands. It's below 10 N right now. That could change though.

[cycloneye]

Another thing to add from Brent's comments is if it develops rapidly the tendency is for recurve but if it is slow developing then it will go more west.

[Hurrilurker]

Definitely trying to organize this evening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Yes, looks tighter, more convection, and low shear ahead of it no?

[Rainband]

From what I have seen no models have anything do they?? Wait and see. It may go poof

[Brent]

Another thing to add from Brent's comments is if it develops rapidly the tendency is for recurve but if it is slow developing then it will go more west.

Well, Georges in 1998 started as a TD at about 8 N/25 W where this wave is now, strengthened steadily(to a hurricane within 60 hours of developing) and affected the islands. I just don't see this recurving unless it starts moving NW.

[cycloneye]

From what I have seen no models have anything do they?? Wait and see. It may go poof

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 9.7N 22.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 23.08.2004 9.7N 22.2W WEAK

00UTC 24.08.2004 9.7N 26.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2004 9.9N 29.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.08.2004 10.3N 31.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.08.2004 10.9N 34.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2004 11.8N 36.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.08.2004 13.0N 39.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 27.08.2004 13.9N 41.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.08.2004 14.7N 41.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.08.2004 15.3N 42.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2004 16.6N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

Johnnathan that is the latest UKMET 12 UTC model run for the wave.

[Rainband]

Thanks Luis

[dixiebreeze]

It doesn't appear as though shear will be an inhibiting factor once it moves farther west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg

[Derecho]

It's pretty badly sheared (from the East) right now.

It's moving too slowly westwards. Upper level winds are stronger than the very weak low-level flow.

[obxhurricane]

Both the UK AND GFS have this system.

There will be a weakness in the ridge in the coming days, so Frances will be a fairly slow mover for being in the deep tropics. Look for the storm to miss the Islands...but not ready to say a fish all the way for sure. Long range charst seem to indicate the weakness in the ridge filling...so Frances could likely resume a westerly or just N of due W track after feeling the weakness.

Just my thoughts...certainly not set in stone.

[MWatkins]

Both the UK AND GFS have this system.

There will be a weakness in the ridge in the coming days, so Frances will be a fairly slow mover for being in the deep tropics. Look for the storm to miss the Islands...but not ready to say a fish all the way for sure. Long range charst seem to indicate the weakness in the ridge filling...so Frances could likely resume a westerly or just N of due W track after feeling the weakness.

Just my thoughts...certainly not set in stone.

Yep...they all seem to be drawing the system northard into a fairly large 500MB weakness progged to drop down from the system currently over eastern Canada...near 40N in 120 hours or so...in fact they all move the system westward for 5 days...the GFS is more abrubt with the turn not happening until days 6 and 7 whereas the UKMET is slower...which could send Mr CV to the west again over time if it doesnt fully connect to the progged trough.

MW

[Rainband]

as long as it doesn't come near Florida. We need a break

[MWatkins]

Also...today's QScat suggests that there is a pretty well-established low-level circulation centered around 22W or so...hard to tell because the western 3rd of the swath is cut off:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png

MW

[Matthew5]

Mw you think there is a LLCC. I think so to so this should be getting a invest soon.

[LarryWx]

[quote="MWatkins
Yep...they all seem to be drawing the system northard into a fairly large 500MB weakness progged to drop down from the system currently over eastern Canada...near 40N in 120 hours or so...in fact they all move the system westward for 5 days...the GFS is more abrubt with the turn not happening until days 6 and 7 whereas the UKMET is slower...which could send Mr CV to the west again over time if it doesnt fully connect to the progged trough.

MW[/quote]

Assuming it develops, there's no way to tell whether this will recurve out in the middle of the Atlantic or instead resume a more westerly course after a temporary more northerly component of motion. However, assuming the models can be trusted this far in advance (a big assumption I realize), they are suggesting to me an atmospheric setup that could easily allow for any tropical cyclone that should happen to exist in the western Atlantic to threaten the eastern US (initially the SE) in about 12-14 days. So, IF it were to resume a more westerly course rather than recurving, it may have an open door to the coast come about 9/4 or so.