96L INVEST begun...

[Derecho]

ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 312.WHXX01

Really doesn't look all that great at the moment, still Easterly shear. Needs to start moving faster.

[cycloneye]

Agree not impressive at this time as east shear still is affecting it.

[Thunder44]

QS on it's ascending pass earlier this morning. shows an closed surface circulation but the winds are weak.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_2.html

[Brent]

It needs to start gaining latitude or it will crash into South America.

[Ola]

It needs to start gaining latitude or it will crash into South America.

I really dont understand why people still say such things.

BTW, with the forecasted weakening of the ridge by pretty much all the globals, this will be a fish. Unless it stayed very weak untill at least 50 west, which seems unlikely, once it gets ifluenced by the westerlies and it starts to move faster thus weakening the shear.

[The Dark Knight]

Hmm........

[Brent]

It needs to start gaining latitude or it will crash into South America.

I really dont understand why people still say such things.

Because I, like most here, am a weather enthusiast. I don't control the weather. Just because I want this system to do something doesn't mean it will do it.

[Ola]

It needs to start gaining latitude or it will crash into South America.

I really dont understand why people still say such things.

Because I, like most here, am a weather enthusiast. I don't control the weather. Just because I want this system to do something doesn't mean it will do it.

What I meant was that so many people make the same coments that have been discussed many many times and should be common knowledge by the Storm2k weather enthusiasts. For example:

"It will crash into SA"

"It is too far south to develop, it needs to get above 10 north"

"It cannot develop untill it slows down"

Those are the most common coments I remeber atm. Everyone here should know that if a wave develops, it will 99.99% of the time not hit South America. An actual cyclone hitting SA must be a once in 100 years event or so. And that would take a system developing after 50 west. A system as this one, around 26 west, would have less a chance of hitting SA if it developed soon, than me winning the loto.

[Thunder44]

If it develops it would feel the effects of the high pressure ridge in the atlantic and lift more poleward, gaining latitude in time. If it remains a wave, it will probably continue westward into South America.

[Stormchaser16]

Hmm........

Dude no offense that gets annoying after awhile

[Josephine96]

LOL about the annoying hmm lol

Anyway.. If Frances forms and becomes a fish.. it'd be fitting..

Frances is a fish lol

[Guest]

LOL about the annoying hmm lol

Anyway.. If Frances forms and becomes a fish.. it'd be fitting..

Frances is a fish lol

LOL Fish or not at least there will something to see for a change.

[Josephine96]

Remember.. I just SAW Charley lol.. Literally lol..

I don't know if I wanna see Charley's brother/girlfriend/wife lol just yet

[MWatkins]

Hmmm....

If that quikscat is right from earlier today then the surface center is well displaced to the east...from the center the NHC is fixing...by a good 250 nautical miles by now. Looks like the TPC is fixing the middle of the broader circulation envelope...but if they are right about the center then it is well south and west of where the globals want to develop it.

MW

[Brent]

Remember.. I just SAW Charley lol.. Literally lol..

I don't know if I wanna see Charley's brother/girlfriend/wife lol just yet

Bonnie was Charley's girlfriend. That's why he was moving at 25 mph across the Caribbean.

[rbaker]

you can't forecast that far out for a sytem around the cape verde's to smash into south america, just because its around lat 10 n now. That would be like predicting if the stock market is going up or down 2 days from now.

[Brent]

you can't forecast that far out for a sytem around the cape verde's to smash into south america, just because its around lat 10 n now. That would be like predicting if the stock market is going up or down 2 days from now.

I didn't forecast it. I just said if it continues west, it will crash into South America. I know the chances are slim.

[Steve H.]

Yeah MW, it is hard to pin down a center of this invest right now, as visibles suggest that it is NE of the official position. Must wait until this gets better organized. Funny how it appears almost like two centers; one at the official position, and one over the CV islands. That would be very bad for development. But perhaps they are centering the position within the broad area of low pressure.

[Fego]

Thunder44 wrote: If it develops it would feel the effects of the high pressure ridge in the atlantic and lift more poleward, gaining latitude in time. If it remains a wave, it will probably continue westward into South America.

Help me here because somewhat I thought that a high pressure ridge keep those systems going westward. Thanks .

[Steve H.]

A ridge to the north of the system would keep it treking westward. Models are currently sowing a weakness in the ridging due to the possibility of something developing near the east coast which in turn may weaken the ridge. GFS tends to recurve systems too early. I gots a feeling this will be tracked for a while westward