Will a hurricane ever hit Europe in the future???

[KWT]

okay here's alittle question.

due to global warming the worlds temps would have increased,prehaps by say 4C.

now if a hurricane formed and had favorable conditions ahead of it and became a cat-5.Now much more of the atlantic will have temps over 28C by then so there is more oopertuntiy for it to grow.Now say it hit the Carolinas of which sea temps would quite poissbly have temps of over 28C and the hurricane continued to develop and then wnet back out to sea.It then heads into the colder waters still a cat-5.

Now lets presume that it hits the Azores as a cat-4,and is now weakening but isn't there a chance that it would hit Europe???

Now in that situation today Europe would prehaps get the reamants of it,but notthe actual hurricane.

Now here's my question,if a storm such as the one I describded above were to swing into the Atlantic and head towards Spain in 2100,would it survive the journey??????

(sorry for the longwinded question but it was the only way I could explain it)

[Guest]

it would probably be at least extratropical because the winds are so fast and everything...

[Derek Ortt]

it has occurred in the past.

Two ays for it to happen are for it to ride the Gulfstream or to recurve far to the east

[hial2]

http://www.weathersavvy.com/Q-EuropeWeather1.html

[KWT]

Often if a hurricane reaches near the British Isles, it is in a region of such cooler waters, that it will lose it's strength. However, perhaps not classified as a "Hurricane" (winds greater than or equal to 74 mph), it can still be a devastating storm and can produce a lot of rain, wind, and perhaps spawn severe storms.

yes that's what happened when Ex-Alex and ex-bonnie came to our shores.

[PurdueWx80]

Tropical storms have also formed in the Mediterranean. They are rare, but it happens on occasion, especially closer to the African continent where waters are warmer.

[KWT]

Yeah infact a tropical storm came fairly close to devloping near Eygpt last year with only a very dominat high nearby stopping it from forming but if it had formed I'm certain it could have been the first mediterrean hurricane.

[Anonymous]

WOW--you make this post about global warming when a couple days ago we were talking about the Gulf stream stopping and an Ice age beginning lol--I dunno--there are valid arguments on both sides so which will it be hotter or colder??

Anyway, as far as Europe being hit, Stranger things have happenned--things just have to happen just right for Europe to be hit by a pure tropical cyclone... They hit Canada and the Azores and remain intact through cold SSTs... Heck last year, we had a purely tropical cyclone develop in April when temps were WAY below the threshold... And lets not forget hurricane Catalina (or some name like that) that hit this year in Brazille, South America---No hurricane organization even covers such storms... So IMHO, it could happen weather as has a mind of its own-No rules apply.

[KWT]

Heck there have also been such storms in the med,see here about the 1995 mediterranean hurricane!

http://www.mindspring.com/~jbeven/intr0008.htm

[Matthew5]

Theres been a few http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... ages/Misc/

[KWT]

that's really cool,the Med's first possible hurricane!!!!

here's an image of it,sure as hell looks like a hurricane to me!!!

[Anonymous]

That looks like a hurricane to me as does this....



The NHC or JTWC needs to take charge of the south Atlantic.... Issue advisories when need be--- This may have been a rarity but it is a sign that the climate is changing and there my be more of these storms

[KWT]

I agree.

With winds reaching 84mph,then these storms should indeed be named,even if they are only a 1 in 20 year event,they will get more common thanks to global warming.

[KWT]

here's the storm that nearly formed in 2003:

On 17 September 2003 another small cyclonic circulation emerged off the coast of Tunisia. Later that day deep convection had developed around the centre. With sea surface temperatures of near 27°C, the system could be considered to be a tropical depression or storm, although information is not available about the inner core structure. By 18 September the low level circulation had become fully exposed as convection developed to the north of the centre. This brought heavy rain to the island of Sicily with a report of 514mm of rain in 48 hours at Syracuse.

[Matthew5]

Kwt Link to that report?

[KWT]

It's the same link you gave me:

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... ages/Misc/

under the med part,also has a few pics of the 1995 storm.

[Matthew5]

Looks like a tropical depression to me?

Maybe we should keep a close eye on the Med.

[KWT]

Yeah I thought that as well(well actually I thought it was a tropical storm but now looking at it your probably right!!!)

and with the heat of last year I wouldn't be suprised in the future if we get more of these mini hurricane and topical storms/deprssions.