96L Spaghetti Model Run..............

[Dean4Storms]

All the Tropical Model Runs are depicted here. You can see there are generally two trains of thought with 96L. One group takes it more WNW to very near the NE Islands and the 2nd group turns it more abruptly NW to NNW. I tend to lean toward the first group with more of a wnw movement for the next several days as the Azores High pushes it more westward.

Link for Spaghetti Model Run........

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/96LALLMDL.html

[obxhurricane]

How about a compromise solution? That seems best given the spread.

[ROCK]

thanks for the link. I would agree with you on the WNW / W track. I think the ridge will hold up to get it across the pond. Im just wondering if Frances can make it through the sea of death once she gets there. Her brother Earl didnt fair so well. In fact, hes cooking in the EPAC right now..lol

[MWatkins]

FYI...these runs are from 12Z or 8am this morning...think there is a problem with the models and the ACTF process...so no new run out tonight.

There have been some changes today...

MW

[rbaker]

I like the compromise which is usually what the official nhc track takes. Esp. with these cv storms, they take a more wnw course in the last several years in what I call hurricane alley which is clipping the exterme ne lesser antillies, or little higher in lat. and then moving wnw above pr and closer to the se bahamas.

[Brent]

I like the middle ones that show a WNW motion and seem to take it just north of the Islands like Isabel.

[PurdueWx80]

Seems to be an interesting spread between fishies and a WNW track from this morning's runs. I noticed some that take it NW seem to curve back towards the WNW at the last model time step, the track I have been the most keen on as of recent.

[Derecho]

I really intensely hate model plots shown without even a name of each model....(and those models do have names)....actually the link isn't working for me, but I've seen the "spaghetti plots" there before.

I really don't think people are learning anything; it's bad enough when the models are named but people really don't have any idea of what each model is or its typical performance.

A great many of the lines are essentially worthless....assorted versions of CLIPER or the A98E, for example.

Actually what the NHC relies on most at the moment is a compromise, of sorts...the average of the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS, or the GUNA.