Mesoscale models jumping all over...

[PurdueWx80]

the in-close development option. The MMM site of NCAR has numerous models in development, many of which are often quite good. There seem to be two camps, and the latest runs are leaning towards a further SW option. Several have been developing a low right under the current convection that is off the SE coast. It is in a slightly more favorable area for development than further west. The WRF 22-km run that is initialized with the Eta develops a low over FL and backs it towards the SW into the NE Gulf, where it deepens slightly and forms a well developed circulation. Also, the NOAA FSL site has numerous versions of the RUC and WRF that are in development. They too are split between SE coastal development and NE Gulf. My gut call would be for development (in some hybrid sense) under the current convection off the GA coast.

Check out http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov/ and choose from the models on the left. Also see http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/ and check out those models. Many on the MMM site don't work, but the MM5-30 km, WRF 22km-Eta, and WRF 10km conus usually are run. Unfortunately, the 4-km WRF was stopped at the end of July - it was superb at picking out MCV and MCS development in the central Plains and Midwest during the summer, so it has shown some real progress in mesoscale prediction.

[Guest]

What I noticed the last wk is here in EC FL. we have been getting pounded repeatingly with heavy rains. Yet the Gulf of Mex. has been cloud free. It has to be reenergized and ready for action. Because of that I pick the Gulf for develpment.