18:00 UTC models=10.6n-33.4w,275 degress13kt,Winds 30 kts

[Brent]

Derecho is right. The odds of a system being a carbon copy of a historic storm is virtually zero.

[Guest]

YUCK! Could be on a Hugo path......

if that's not a wishcast..

[James]

The latest satellite images show a blob of convection flaring up in the wave - maybe this flare up will be the convection needed to upgrade the system tonight.

[JTD]

I don't see any more major hurricane strikes on the U.S this year.

I believe that God will make sure that there is only 1 major hurricane strike on the U.S this year. I have faith in him/her/it to do that.

And looking at TD 6, it's clear that it is falling apart this afternoon.

It'd be quite unlikely to have 2 cat 3's hitting the U.S in 1 season.

[Guest]

I remember when Isabel looked like a Hugo except further North. Everyone said at first that there was barely any chance of it hitting us some figure for that area is like 38 storms out of 39 missed us, but look what happened.

[caneman]

I don't see any more major hurricane strikes on the U.S this year.

I believe that God will make sure that there is only 1 major hurricane strike on the U.S this year. I have faith in him/her/it to do that.

And looking at TD 6, it's clear that it is falling apart this afternoon.

It'd be quite unlikely to have 2 cat 3's hitting the U.S in 1 season.

Not that unlikely we could be getting back in a cycle of not only more hits but more intense hits too. And since this hit came so early, IMHO, it is more likely we will see at least 1 more Cat. 3+

[JTD]

Oh, yes. It is almost 70% certain in my eyes that another major hurricane or perhaps two or more will form this season. The thing is.....I don't think it'd be a U.S hit.

Edited to add: There might be a Canadian hit (recalls most unfortunately Juan) but that will be cat 2 at most.

Juan was huge news here in Canada.

[PurdueWx80]

I see no reason to believe why the eastern Atlantic wave (looks like a TD or TS to me now) won't become a Cat 3. It has excellent outflow now, and once convection gets going in the overnight max, it will likely intensify rapidly. The TUTT will only act to ventilate the storm as it approaches. The outflow is great in all directions, so there is a well-established high over the storm now. It is also moving over increasinly warm waters, and I see no dry air to impede convection.

[caneman]

Oh, yes. It is almost 70% certain in my eyes that another major hurricane or perhaps two or more will form this season. The thing is.....I don't think it'd be a U.S hit.

Edited to add: There might be a Canadian hit (recalls most unfortunately Juan) but that will be cat 2 at most.

Juan was huge news here in Canada.

Why?????

[Guest]

My personal opinion is that if the system gets caught in the trough, it will head nw and then it will head wnw. If the trough doesnt pick it up, it should head through the carribean.

[JTD]

Caneman, because the statistical probability is so low. This board has many excellent statisticans.

Can anyone rember the u.s getting hit in populated by areas by 3+ hurricanes twice in 1 year?

I'm not saying it won't happen. I just have a feeling it won't.

[Guest]

well, weve been luckier than normal in terms of hurricane hits. I do think its possible that we get another hurricane hit.

[JTD]

Yes. For sure. Don't get me wrong. By no means am I saying a 2nd strike by a cat 3 will not happen.

To me, it's a very long-shot though.

TD 6 (Francis) to get back on topic is not the one, though. Look at the models.

[James]

Caneman, because the statistical probability is so low. This board has many excellent statisticans.

Can anyone rember the u.s getting hit in populated by areas by 3+ hurricanes twice in 1 year?

I'm not saying it won't happen. I just have a feeling it won't.

The last time 2 major hurricanes hit the US in one season was in 1964. Hurricanes Dora and Isbell made landfall as CAT 3 hurricanes in Florida.

[Guest]

lol the name isbell is a funny one

[caneman]

Caneman, because the statistical probability is so low. This board has many excellent statisticans.

Can anyone rember the u.s getting hit in populated by areas by 3+ hurricanes twice in 1 year?

I'm not saying it won't happen. I just have a feeling it won't.

The last time 2 major hurricanes hit the US in one season was in 1964. Hurricanes Dora and Isbell made landfall as CAT 3 hurricanes in Florida.

While that may be correct. 1985 Gloria hit the Outer Banks of NC at 5 mph less than Cat. 3 and of course Elena hit as a Cat. 3 in Mississippi. I have hadn't a chance to check other years. I believe we are in a period of more and intense activity. If you look back say pre-1970, we had some intensely active periods.

[James]

Good point.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

BrianI
if that's not a wishcast..

Not hardly....obviously, you have not been in a MAJOR hurricane like HUGO!