00:00 UTC models=Trend more west for models

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962004) ON 20040825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040825 0000 040825 1200 040826 0000 040826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.1N 35.1W 11.5N 37.7W 12.2N 40.0W 13.1N 42.1W
BAMM 11.1N 35.1W 11.5N 37.4W 12.2N 39.5W 13.1N 41.3W
A98E 11.1N 35.1W 11.5N 38.2W 11.8N 41.2W 12.1N 43.9W
LBAR 11.1N 35.1W 11.5N 38.0W 12.3N 40.9W 13.2N 43.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040827 0000 040828 0000 040829 0000 040830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 43.9W 15.5N 46.7W 16.3N 48.8W 16.2N 51.2W
BAMM 14.0N 42.8W 15.7N 44.9W 16.8N 46.3W 17.9N 48.2W
A98E 12.3N 46.4W 12.6N 50.4W 13.0N 54.1W 13.5N 58.3W
LBAR 14.3N 45.9W 16.3N 49.6W 18.0N 52.2W 18.5N 54.3W
SHIP 61KTS 73KTS 77KTS 77KTS
DSHP 61KTS 73KTS 77KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 35.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 32.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW =

Passing close to the northern islands according to the models but of course that can change so all interests in the leeward islands must watch the progress of the system.

[Brent]

Back down to 25 kt? What is wrong with these crazy models?

[Guest]

i think this one will go nw but then turn back wnw/west

[Derek Ortt]

the initial intensity is inputted by the forecaster on duty

[caneman]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962004) ON 20040825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040825 0000 040825 1200 040826 0000 040826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.1N 35.1W 11.5N 37.7W 12.2N 40.0W 13.1N 42.1W
BAMM 11.1N 35.1W 11.5N 37.4W 12.2N 39.5W 13.1N 41.3W
A98E 11.1N 35.1W 11.5N 38.2W 11.8N 41.2W 12.1N 43.9W
LBAR 11.1N 35.1W 11.5N 38.0W 12.3N 40.9W 13.2N 43.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040827 0000 040828 0000 040829 0000 040830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 43.9W 15.5N 46.7W 16.3N 48.8W 16.2N 51.2W
BAMM 14.0N 42.8W 15.7N 44.9W 16.8N 46.3W 17.9N 48.2W
A98E 12.3N 46.4W 12.6N 50.4W 13.0N 54.1W 13.5N 58.3W
LBAR 14.3N 45.9W 16.3N 49.6W 18.0N 52.2W 18.5N 54.3W
SHIP 61KTS 73KTS 77KTS 77KTS
DSHP 61KTS 73KTS 77KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 35.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 32.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW =

Passing close to the northern islands according to the models but of course that can change so all interests in the leeward islands must watch the progress of the system.

You know what they say - the trend is your friend. Keep your eyes peeled Luis.

[Derek Ortt]

the bamd is well right of the previous run. The shift has been to the right of the previous run, not left

[flyingphish]

Thank you for that clarification on the model. No further questions here. The Jury is still out on this one it seems.. despite some pretty good indicators . Any input on the next disturbance to the east ? Last night it looked interesting, but I have not had a chance to check current imagery yet? BTW..did not forget your initial concerns on eventual Charley. At one point you apologized for being overly concerned but unfortunately..your concerns were well stated. Appreciate your conservative and calculated input on this board.