Question for Professional Mets

[EDR1222]

Or for anyone else who has any thoughts. Early in the season, I posted a question about what Dr. Gray and other Meteorologists have been talking about in reference to the persistent trough along the east coast. Dr. Gray says that climatology will soon begin to "right" itself. He talks about the increased risk, particularly along the Florida east coast. Not something that people in Florida want to hear, including myself, especially after what happened August 13. But, are there any signs, as we are deep into the season, that are beginning to point toward atlantic hurricanes taking more westerly tracks that are more normal, according to history, than what we have seen during the past few decades, or are we likely to continue to see most east coast storms veer out to sea or toward the carolinas? I guess that would be hard to answer for future years, but I was just wondering if you guys had any thoughts on this. I don't believe the track that Charley took is really what Dr. Gray was talking about since that one came up from the south.

Thanks,

[PurdueWx80]

This will be a quick answer, but the trough has left the Eastern part of the country for now, and it should remain that way for a few weeks. Anytime that happens, it opens up the possiblity for a wave to make it all the way across the Atlantic. A lot would depend exactly on where any longwave (and shortwave) feature is, as those can make or break a direct hit on the US. For the foreseeable future, there should be a ridge somewhere from the eastern US to the west-central Atlantic, which tells us a storm would ride around the southern and then southwestern edge, clockwise. The newly developed tropical depression is one such wave that has to be watched a week down the road. If it doesn't get pulled too far northwards by a weakness in the ridge or the TUTT, then the building ridge should pull it back to the west towards North America. There will obviously be other waves to follow. So, in a general sense, Dr. Gray's prediction seems to be correct so far.

[MWatkins]

This will be a quick answer, but the trough has left the Eastern part of the country for now, and it should remain that way for a few weeks. Anytime that happens, it opens up the possiblity for a wave to make it all the way across the Atlantic. A lot would depend exactly on where any longwave (and shortwave) feature is, as those can make or break a direct hit on the US. For the foreseeable future, there should be a ridge somewhere from the eastern US to the west-central Atlantic, which tells us a storm would ride around the southern and then southwestern edge, clockwise. The newly developed tropical depression is one such wave that has to be watched a week down the road. If it doesn't get pulled too far northwards by a weakness in the ridge or the TUTT, then the building ridge should pull it back to the west towards North America. There will obviously be other waves to follow. So, in a general sense, Dr. Gray's prediction seems to be correct so far.

Thanks for that great answer...PurdueWX. Good to have you on the board.

MW

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

PurdueWx80...I love your post, they aren't too technical!