Have you seen the 6Z GFS????

[hurricanetrack]

That's all I have to say- look at the 6Z GFS and add that to the 0Z GFS- then you have to at least be concerned a little. Just a little.

Check it out.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... ex_s.shtml

[Derek Ortt]

we now know for sure that this will not hit anywhere near Texas

[alicia-w]

yes, it certainly appears to be a reason to stay interested and aware....

[Scott_inVA]

clears Benchmark... clips the Keys...slams into Texas

link below

[KatDaddy]

No way TD 6 is coming to TX. Thats about as far-fetched as it gets going out to Days 10 and greater. Next model run will be completely different.
I still think TD will turn more W under the trof however it will be well N of the Islands and well away from the GOM

[Scott_inVA]

we now know for sure that this will not hit anywhere near Texas

isn't that what GFS stands for...Good For S-it

However the model has been more consistent/accurate than many of the favorites here but a 3,000 mile flip in 6 hours is a bit too much for me.

[Derek Ortt]

GFS, that what I call that model here at the office, especially after analyzing the initial fields extensively for Hurricane Isabel

[alicia-w]

derek said this in the "fish or not" post:

Why would anyone use A-98E or LBAR? Those mdoels are utterly worthless

From the models map on the WREL site, the only one taking it straight west would be the A-98E. If this is to be discounted, then those of us in the Gulf probably have nothing to worry about with this one. Right, Derek?

[hurricanetrack]

I just figured if the runs begin to add up more and more- then perhaps "Frances" will make a few people worried along the East Coast. We are talking about a major global model here and if it is trending towards less poleward motion, then that is significant. Each run will heighten the mystery a little more. That is what makes this so fascinating.

[Anonymous]

Well, BAMM, GFS, and UKMET all turn the storm NW then back West Fish?yes?no?maybe??

however...

Most likely
the track has to be adjusted to the right later today if models
insist on the development of the mid-Atlantic trough.

BAMM, GFS
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

UKMET
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

[Derek Ortt]

the only way the A-98 E verifies is if this becomes a wave again within the next day or so

[Derecho]

derek said this in the "fish or not" post:

Why would anyone use A-98E or LBAR? Those mdoels are utterly worthless

From the models map on the WREL site, the only one taking it straight west would be the A-98E. If this is to be discounted, then those of us in the Gulf probably have nothing to worry about with this one. Right, Derek?

It's not necessary for a storm to pass through the Carribean to enter the Gulf, hence it's not necessary for 6 to head due W right now to have any chance of entering the Gulf (were it to do so, of course.)

[Guest]

I am not making any prejudices against anyone in particular, but it seems like some users on this board really do not understand the models and how they operate and initialize....again not pointing fingers but unless you really know what is going on, it seems to be pointless to find a few runs of a model like BAM medium or LBAR and say they hold no water, unless you actually have an understanding of what each model fields.

anyways, IMO, the 06z GFs flip-flop plenty but when you see a portion suite of ensembles days previous showing one scenerio, a flip flop in coming days, then the median of a run (06z for instance, 8/25) coming back into agreement with days previous inside 180 hours, this definitly is something to watch - but more likely in runs of the Canadian , UKmet, or even maybe moreso ETA, as it will initialize more smartly closer to the time in question.

[Derecho]

Well, BAMM, GFS, and UKMET all turn the storm NW then back West Fish?yes?no?maybe??

however...

Most likely
the track has to be adjusted to the right later today if models
insist on the development of the mid-Atlantic trough.

Avila wrote that before the 06Z GFS even came out, of course.

[Anonymous]

Well, BAMM, GFS, and UKMET all turn the storm NW then back West Fish?yes?no?maybe??

however...

Most likely
the track has to be adjusted to the right later today if models
insist on the development of the mid-Atlantic trough.

Avila wrote that before the 06Z GFS even came out, of course.

How is this so? The advisory is written at 5am (09z) thats 3 hours later unless there is a delay before the NHC can see the model?

[Derecho]

How is this so? The advisory is written at 5am (09z) thats 3 hours later unless there is a delay before the NHC can see the model?

Model runs are "named" with the time of their INITIALIZATION, NOT the time they come out.

The 06 GFS was INITIALIZED with weather data from 6Z (2AM Eastern.)

It's one of the most complicated computer programs on earth, and takes hours to run, even on a supercomputer.

Avila wrote the discussion at 4AM, not 5AM; the 06Z GFS was not avaliable to him, or anyone else, till 5:30AM.

[Derek Ortt]

LBAR, a barotropic model, not going to be of much use with this system if we start getting a weakness in the ridge. A barotropic environment implies no vertical shear. The environment according to the global models may not even be equivalent barotropic.

The Beta advection models are not purely dynamic models. Instead, they often assume that conditions will remain as is; thus, are subject to large errors when there are digging troughs in 3 days, etc

[Aimless]

I do not understand how models work, I do not understand all the included data... I simply look at the loops and tracks and see what "might" happen. For those of us who are not professionals or even well versed.. the models should serve only as general suggestions ...clues that we need to watch the offical reports and be ready regardless.

[ameriwx2003]

Interesting about the GFS but I remember last year we were having this same discussion about Isabel because the GFS sent it into FL ,then Texas ,then NC ,then FL etc:):).. However the models have trended a little more west with time even the EURO has trended further west before the NW turn.. as a Met( can't remember who) on this board has said, the trend is your friend:):)

[rbaker]

well said aimless, I personally go with just three days out where the models are alot more precise. The 5 day as noted by one of the guru's on the forum noted the 5 day is a general area of where storm should be. There is a 600 mile cone in that area from east to west is huge. Plus these models sway back and forth this far out. Like I said before I personally will give td 6 or whatever it is that 50 degree long line and if doesn't start that wnw movement by then it could very well clip the ne lesser antillies. This was not even in the cards at 11pm last night.