Frances Advisories

[dixiebreeze]

and Floater 2 on the Caribbean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Derek Ortt]

This does look like a tropical wave. Latest visible imagery does not show the rotation that it did even just an hour ago

[cycloneye]

dixie from last night around 9 pm it was there.

[dixiebreeze]

Oops! Didn't know that, Luis. Went to bed early for a change

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html


This is not the most impressive and the poorly defined center is well south of the sat fixes

[Derecho]

40+ kt uncontaminated barbs.

For a TD I don't see how it's a particularly poorly defined circulation.

There seem to be issues with precise latitudes for low-latitude circs on QS.

[Derek Ortt]

The NRL images are not rain flagged at all, unlike the traditional ones on the NOAA site

[Derek Ortt]

I'm thinking poorly defined as I am having some trouble seeing a north wind. I see the west wind as well as the south and east. This may still be somewhat associated with the ITCZ

[Derecho]

The NRL images are not rain flagged at all, unlike the traditional ones on the NOAA site

I actually wasn't using your link, but using the main QS site.

[Derek Ortt]

ah, I'll have to check that one out then

[cycloneye]

AFWA is only T1.5

TPNT KGWC 251210
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
B. 25/1131Z (65)
C. 11.3N/5
D. 38.4W/6
E. SIX/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5/STT:S0.0/9HRS -25/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FINAL T BASED ON DT, PT SUPPORTS.

AODT: T2.7 (CRVD BND)

ARCHULETTA

Hey Mike why then that 2.5 appeared at the site?

[Derecho]

Your standards for a QS for a TD seem rather unreasonably high. Circ is pretty clear (it's actually an uncontaminated 45 kt barb there), though not PERFECTLY circular.

Granted the QS is from immediately before the convective collapse.

[Derek Ortt]

the 2.5 is from SSD. AFWA also makes Dvorak estimates, along with TAFB. The estimates available from SSD are not the final consensus estimate, but only that from SSD

[cycloneye]

Ok thanks Derek for clarifing that.

[Derek Ortt]

I agree then it was a very ncie looking cyclone. Even early morning viible showed a celar circulation. The last couple of images aren't as well defined though.

Also, the NRL QS didn't show the swirl as clean as the image you provided, it shows more of a monsoon type circulation, albiet from a much zoomed in vantagepoint

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 25, 2004

...Tropical depression continuing westward with little change in
strength...no immediate threat to land...

at 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 11.4 north...longitude 39.1 west or about
1515 miles...2440 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
Thursday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...11.4 N... 39.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 25, 2004

Tropical Depression Six is looking a little ragged this morning.
While still organized into bands...the associated convection has
decreased significantly in depth and coverage since sunrise. The
reason for this is not clear...although the system may be ingesting
some of the dry air seen nearby in water vapor imagery. Satellite
intensity estimates are 35 kt from SAB...30 kt from TAFB...and 25
kt from AFWA. The initial intensity remains 30 kt.
The initial motion is now 275/15. The cyclone is currently south of
a subtropical ridge. Large-scale models indicate that a mid/
upper-level level low currently seen in water vapor imagery just
southeast of Nova Scotia will dive southeastward and weaken the
ridge from 48-96 hr and then lift out to the northeast. If this
verifies...it would allow the tropical depression to turn
northwestward after 24-36 hr...and then possibly turning more
westward by 120 hr as the ridge rebuilds to the north. The
dynamical models generally agree with this scenario. However...the
GFS has shifted its track considerably to the south and west of the
GFDL...UKMET...and NOGAPS. The official forecast track also shifts
to the left of the previous track...but not as far as the GFS. The
new track is along the western edge of the other dynamical models
in best agreement with the GFDL and the consensus models.
Other than the current ragged appearance...conditions generally
apepar favorable for the cyclone to intensify for the first 72-96
hr. The intensity forecast will call for slow strengthening for
the first 48 hr or so in agreement with the current organization
and trends...then call for faster development as the system nears
hurricane strength. After 72-96 hr...if the cyclone tracks as far
north as forecast...it may encounter westerly shear to the north of
the upper-level ridge forecast to lie east-west along 18-19n. That
would limit strengthening as indicated in the forecast. An
alternate scenario would be if the cyclone stays south of the ridge
axis...which would allow greater strengthening than currently
forecast.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/1500z 11.4n 39.1w 30 kt
12hr VT 26/0000z 11.8n 41.3w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/1200z 12.6n 43.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 27/0000z 13.5n 45.6w 45 kt
48hr VT 27/1200z 14.5n 47.2w 50 kt
72hr VT 28/1200z 16.5n 49.5w 65 kt
96hr VT 29/1200z 18.5n 52.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 30/1200z 20.5n 55.0w 75 kt

[dixiebreeze]

33 west:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[wxman57]

Just snapped a high-res shot of TD6. Note that black circle, I believe that's the exposed LLC. Not really an eye, per-se. But it makes the center easy to track. Definitely looking like a threat to the NE Caribbean next Monday/Tuesday, and possibly a future east U.S. coast threat. I calculate speed of movement is now 18 mph just north of due west.

Remember 2-3 days ago, the models were indicating that it wouldn't reach 40W until the weekend. It's there now!

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/frances5.gif">

[Stormsfury]

One thing to note is how LARGE the overall circulation pattern is of TD #6 ...

and in response look to the SE of the depression ... SW winds at the 950mb level E of the 40ºW line, south of 10ºN ... monsoon trough ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[wxman57]

One thing to note is how LARGE the overall circulation pattern is of TD #6 ...

and in response look to the SE of the depression ... SW winds at the 950mb level E of the 40ºW line, south of 10ºN ... monsoon trough ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Actually, those are 1 deg lat/lon lines on the image, so it's not that big of a system. Only about 100-150 miles across.