12:00 UTC models=More west trends

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 7:57 am

FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (AL062004) ON 20040825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040825 1200 040826 0000 040826 1200 040827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 38.3W 11.9N 41.2W 12.7N 43.5W 13.6N 45.6W
BAMM 11.3N 38.3W 12.0N 40.9W 12.8N 42.9W 13.8N 44.5W
A98E 11.3N 38.3W 11.5N 41.3W 11.9N 44.3W 12.4N 47.1W
LBAR 11.3N 38.3W 12.0N 41.2W 12.9N 43.9W 13.9N 46.3W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040827 1200 040828 1200 040829 1200 040830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 47.4W 15.4N 50.7W 15.6N 53.8W 14.8N 57.8W
BAMM 14.5N 46.0W 15.4N 48.6W 15.9N 51.1W 16.2N 54.6W
A98E 12.7N 49.7W 12.9N 54.0W 12.8N 58.0W 12.2N 62.5W
LBAR 14.7N 48.4W 16.3N 51.9W 17.0N 54.8W 16.6N 57.9W
SHIP 63KTS 74KTS 76KTS 74KTS
DSHP 63KTS 74KTS 76KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 38.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 32.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#2 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 9:11 am

Looks much more reasonable (BAMM/BAMD) given the current forward speed of 17 kts just north of due west. I think there's a good chance of a threat to the NE Caribbean early next week at 120-144hrs. No indication of any NW turn any time soon. The models have been consistently too slow and too far right with storms so far this year.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 9:26 am

Yes Chris the more weak the more west it goes so from the islands we must watch it more closely than before.Here there are low expectations because the TV mets haved said it would go way northeast of the islands but that might change if this westbound track continues for another 3 days.

caribepr · #4 Postby **caribepr** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 9:28 am

caa caa

(turning on all the fans and pointing them north!)

Aquawind · #5 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 9:31 am

Just in case anyone wanted to know what I was thinking..

Hmmmm....

:roflmao:

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 9:32 am

Aquawind wrote:Just in case anyone wanted to know what I was thinking..

Hmmmm....

That was good.

#7 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 9:32 am

caa caa

(turning on all the fans and pointing them north!)

LOL

PuertoRicoLibre · #8 Postby **PuertoRicoLibre** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 9:33 am

Luis, that run puts the tc crossing us from the southeast to northwest at 162 to 174 hours. Of course still too far out in time, but another reason to be watchful.

Website · #9 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 9:35 am

The new NHC track at 11am has shifted west and has it at 20 N/55 W on Day 5.

Josephine96 · #10 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 10:06 am

LOL about the hmm..

#11 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 10:09 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks much more reasonable (BAMM/BAMD) given the current forward speed of 17 kts just north of due west. I think there's a good chance of a threat to the NE Caribbean early next week at 120-144hrs. No indication of any NW turn any time soon. The models have been consistently too slow and too far right with storms so far this year.

well the bam bam's keep it in the 20/60 box...lbar and a98 we dont worry about. so it shoudl be very interesting for the next few days

rbaker · #12 Postby **rbaker** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 10:31 am

still don't think the trough will be able to pick it up around 50 w long, unless we get a hurricane around that time, and then its iffy.

12:00 UTC models=More west trends

12:00 UTC models=More west trends

Watch the 006 run

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