TD 6 forecast #2... 4 degree left shift at 120 hours

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


4 degree shift to the left at 120 hours.

[Brent]

Interesting.

[rainstorm]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Brent]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LOL

[Derek Ortt]

graphic is also now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html


this is still a recurvature forecast, just a left shift

[Josephine96]

Here in Florida we are obviously going to watch future Frances very closely..

[Trader Ron]

Can we say Fish?..

[cinlfla]

Can we say Fish?..:)

Maybe, Maybe not.

[Brent]

Can we say Fish?..

I don't know yet. The odds are it will be a fish, but nothing is certain right now.

[msbee]

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Josephine96]

Yes what lol

[Brent]

Yes what lol

Yes it will be a fish IMO, because she lives on St. Maarten.

[Josephine96]

Ah ok..

I am not sold on the fish idea just yet.. But we'll wait and see..

[mascpa]

I think folks are jumping the gun here, it's much too early to tell. But it seems like all the models and guidance keeps shifting farther to the left. My rudimentary weather knowledge indicates that if Frances does not strengthen too much and stays fairly weak, she will be much less influenced by the expected weakness in the ridge and may not turn north as soon or as much as previously predicted. If that turns out to be the case, she will continue to move farther west before any turn and she may affect the northeast portion of the islands. Percentages are always for a storm to be a fish but lets sit back and watch Frances for a few days before we start making predictions.

[btangy]

I agree. It's too early to tell. Zonal flow is supposed to set up across the US early next week, so if Frances bends back toward the west in the later period, it's pretty ambiguous whether there will be enough of a weakness in the ridge to recurve it day 7 and beyond.

[rbaker]

couldn't agree more with mascpa about td 6. If it stays weak or even gets up to hurricane strenght, Im not convinced that its going fishing. Already the track has shifted left about 3 degrees. As I stated, last night 50-55 degrees long w will tell the story, before any chances of fish, and then if a ridge moves back in a west movement could resume.
This storm could have one of those wiggle tracks after some time of shifting courses.

[Brent]

Ah ok..

I am not sold on the fish idea just yet.. But we'll wait and see..

I agree. It's still moving almost due west. Until it turns, I will not say the islands are safe, even though that's the most likely scenario right now.

[Derek Ortt]

The consensus of the dynamic models have this going well north of the islands. The GFS run may just be a flip flop, resulting in the BAM models (which are initialized using GFS) to also trend west, at least for now

[rainstorm]

will it hit me??? i am getting upset

[Derek Ortt]

calm down,

it is so far out that there is no need to be worried about getting hit yet

new forecast the preliminary thinking is a leftward adjustment