12 UTC UKMET joins the left shift of other models

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cycloneye
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12 UTC UKMET joins the left shift of other models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:42 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 38.1W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 25.08.2004 11.6N 38.1W WEAK

00UTC 26.08.2004 12.6N 41.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.08.2004 13.0N 43.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2004 14.0N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.08.2004 15.3N 46.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.08.2004 17.1N 47.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2004 18.1N 48.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.08.2004 19.7N 49.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2004 21.1N 50.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2004 22.6N 50.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.08.2004 23.0N 52.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2004 23.7N 53.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2004 23.7N 55.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

A big change from previous runs now much more left.
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#2 Postby alicia-w » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:44 pm

Okay, so how did they go from Moderate Little Change to Strong?

And what does this mean?
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#3 Postby Derecho » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:44 pm

To be fair NOGAPS actually shifted rightwards.....

Unikely to be correct as an outlier, though.
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#4 Postby MWatkins » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:44 pm

And coming out of the blocks it looks to be too far right too quickly. Based on the current motion of this system I doubt it will gain a degree north (12.6) by 8PM this evening.

MW
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 25, 2004 12:46 pm

Yes Mike the UKMET positions are not what in reallity is happening.
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