Frances Advisories

[Guest]

i think it's going to become cat5 and hit miami... then back out
and still cat 5 hit jacksoneville... head southwest and emerge
in the gulf as a cat2 but quicky regain cat 5 status. Then go to
new orleans cat5... then back up into the gulf... still cat5... goes
to houston and rakes the coast down to corpus then back into the
gulf.. still cat5... then heads strait for tampa... but at the last moment
it swerves south and comes ashore near ft myers... after that...
i have know idea... it's hard to forcast beyond 2 weeks...

hahaha!

[ga_ben]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200406.disc.html

[Brent]

But your track is from 11am when it was still a TD. talk all afternoon has been how the models are changing. imagine that.

The link I posted is the new 5pm track. There was only a slight shift to the west. They say it's possible it could still be south of that though, and it would likely strengthen more than they have it currently forecasted to.

[TerryAlly]

It's early days and Frances just formed, nevertheless an initial direction of 275 appears too ambitious right now ... 271, 272 perhaps.

Over the last six hours Frances continued west and with the ridge that extends from Africa to Barbados, I am still wondering whether that is her guiding factor?

[Brent]

The NHC is implying a possible turn back to the west after the NW motion on Day 5 like Isabel and Andrew.

[vbhoutex]

Much different than the official track the NHC issued initially!!! We'll have to see if they start to trend West like these models are.

[c5Camille]

Yikes

[SouthernWx]

I honestly don't see much chance of Frances being a fish, because it appears likely to impact some portion of the eastern Caribbean....and IMO as a significant hurricane (100 mph or more).

Beyond that, it's too early to know (other than a wild guess) where a U.S. landfall could occur, if it does at all....but I don't like what I see. Cape Verde storms that turn back west usually mean big trouble, because the odds increase of it becoming a very intense hurricane (i.e.- "Donna", "Floyd", "Andrew").

[Brent]

Much different than the official track the NHC issued initially!!! We'll have to see if they start to trend West like these models are.

NHC track shifted a little to the left at 5pm. Could be the start of a trend. They say all the dynamical models except the GFS are right of their track though.

[dhweather]

F is for FISH, which is where Frances will go.

[TerryAlly]

THE CYCLONE REMAINS SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE FROM
48-96 HR...AND THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THIS VERIFIES...
IT WOULD ALLOW FRANCES TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HR...AND THEN
POSSIBLY TURNING MORE WESTWARD BY 120 HR AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO
THE NORTH.

I do not understand something here. If the ridge weakens from 48-96 hours then will Frances turn more northward after the 48-96 hr period or 24 hr from now?

It seems reasonably that as the ridge weakens .. let's say at 48 hr then Frances will begin to turn. In 48 hours at 17 mph that will put her near 54W -- unless forward motion slows.

Can someone shed some light on this statement in the discussion?

[tracyswfla]

Brent,

Where is your gut feeling on the direction of this storm?

[Guest]

I have a gut feeling it will do something of a Floyd. I think That it will intensify, probably to cat 3/4 eventually, scare everyone in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina and then landfall in North Carolina. Just a feeling.

[Guest]

I have 3 hurricanes in mind when I think of this one. In order of which one I think the track may be like 1)Floyd, 2)Andrew, 3)Isabel.

[dhweather]

i think it's going to become cat5 and hit miami... then back out
and still cat 5 hit jacksoneville... head southwest and emerge
in the gulf as a cat2 but quicky regain cat 5 status. Then go to
new orleans cat5... then back up into the gulf... still cat5... goes
to houston and rakes the coast down to corpus then back into the
gulf.. still cat5... then heads strait for tampa... but at the last moment
it swerves south and comes ashore near ft myers... after that...
i have know idea... it's hard to forcast beyond 2 weeks...

Following NHC guidance.....

480 HOURS - EXTRATROPICAL

[Brent]

Brent,

Where is your gut feeling on the direction of this storm?

I don't know. It's too early to tell if this will threaten U.S. The possibility of a westward turn after Day 4 is disturbing.

[Jersey storm]

I read my tea leaves.They told me this could be a major east coast runner

[Trader Ron]

I think it could impact the Islands,but won't hit the U.S.

[caneman]

Brent,

Where is your gut feeling on the direction of this storm?

I don't know. It's too early to tell if this will threaten U.S. The possibility of a westward turn after Day 4 is disturbing.

Looks fairlly reasonable to say that it eventually it goes West at what Latitude remains the question. Looking at it now and assuming it slows once it goes NW. Looks to turn back West between 20 and 25. Could get interesting.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the tropics tonight reveals some new developments including a new tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin. Tropical Storm Frances is the sixth named tropical system of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. This brings us up to 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes so far this season. Tropical Storm Frances is a minimal tropical storm at 5 PM EDT with maximum sustained winds of near 40 mph with higher gusts. Frances is expected to gradually strengthen over the next couple of days and is forecast to become a hurricane in the next 48 hours or so. Tropical Storm Frances is centered near latitude 11.6 north, longitude 40.5 west or about 1420 miles east of the Lesser Antillies. Movement is towards the west at near 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. The key to this forecast is how far north will this system reach. If this system tracks further northwestward, it will likely run into higher shear, hence possibly a minimal hurricane strength. However a track further south could result in further strengthening south of a ridge axis and possibly a stronger hurricane of category 2-3 or higher. No immediate threat to land is anticipated with this system and it's over a week away from coming anywhere close to the United States if it even makes it this far west.

Meanwhile another system of note off the Florida/Georgia coast with persistent showers and thunderstorms. However pressures at the surface have gone up today and pressure are high to begin with. As a result, immediate strengthening to a tropical cyclone doesn't look likely. However over the next day or two, we could see conditions favor further slow strengthening. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

Meanwhile the west Pac is quite busy with two typhoons. Aere hasn 75 mph winds and is impacting Mainland China at this time after slamming Taiwan with several feet of rainfall. Finally the big system of all, Supertyphoon Chaba has maximum sustained winds of 165 mph with higher gusts. Chaba is positioned near latitude 22.7N, longitude 136.6W. Movement is north-northwest at near 9 mph. The track would take this sytem towards southern Japan as a category 3, possibly stronger. A very devastating situation potentially for southern Japan over the next 4-5 days.

Jim