Frances Advisories

NorthGaWeather · #181 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 4:25 pm

dhweather wrote:F is for FISH, which is where Frances will go.

I'm beginning to think it won't be a fish.

Website · #182 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 4:31 pm

NorthGaWeather wrote:
dhweather wrote:F is for FISH, which is where Frances will go.

I'm beginning to think it won't be a fish.

I am too. It could still be one, but the chances are lower now IMO.

#183 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 4:31 pm

I think it will be like Isabel, Andrew, and Floyd. They say it might recurve, so that is a big problem. Maybe Frances will get retired for a good reason other than France being dumb.

Matthew5 · #184 Postby **Matthew5** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 4:35 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:I think it will be like Isabel, Andrew, and Floyd. They say it might recurve, so that is a big problem. Maybe Frances will get retired for a good reason other than France being dumb.

I'm thinking Frances, is mad because it is being retired for no reason. So its going to find a reason! :eek:

Website · #185 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 4:36 pm

Matthew5 wrote:
Hurricanehink wrote:I think it will be like Isabel, Andrew, and Floyd. They say it might recurve, so that is a big problem. Maybe Frances will get retired for a good reason other than France being dumb.

I'm thinking Frances, is mad because it is being retired for no reason. So its going to find a reason!

I'm starting to think that as well. :eek:

caneman · #186 Postby **caneman** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 4:42 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:I think it will be like Isabel, Andrew, and Floyd. They say it might recurve, so that is a big problem. Maybe Frances will get retired for a good reason other than France being dumb.

I'd like to see it do like Alex and hook back except come in lower then Alex did and nail France as an extra-Tropical Cyclone and then be retired (of course with no one getting hurt, just enough to ruin a weekend or something). Our way of saying shove it up your @$$.

hurrmia · #187 Postby **hurrmia** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 4:44 pm

here in miami fl their saying that 1#it will move w and2#nw or wnw and#3 turn it back west when high build again . it like andrew track!!!!!!!!!!!!!o no!!!!!!!!!

hurrmia · #188 Postby **hurrmia** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 4:59 pm

many were saying this was fish!!!!!!!!!!!!! it dont look like now :eek:

c5Camille · #189 Postby **c5Camille** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 5:01 pm

#190 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 5:03 pm

I'm noticing how remarkably similar the pattern is to when Isabel was in the same location last year. Remember we had that weak frontal low "Hermine" sitting off the Carolinas (as the low there now is)? Isabel was forecast to be a "fish" at first, but it missed the front connection and turned back west. Frances isn't going to get dragged north by that first front. Odds of that are pretty low now. It's moving considerably faster and farther south than the NHC forecast. Our track is now 150+ miles south and about a day ahead of the NHC track, taking the center into the northeast Caribbean on Tuesday.

Beyond that point, it's a question of when the NEXT front will begin drawing Frances northward as it nears the Bahamas. Could still turn north before the east coast, definitely. But a NC hit would be my best estimate now.

#191 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 5:06 pm

Yikes! My 120hr position is remarkably similar to LBAR (16.9/58.8). I must be doing something wrong.... :wink:

Website · #192 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 5:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:Yikes! My 120hr position is remarkably similar to LBAR (16.9/58.8). I must be doing something wrong....

ROCK · #193 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 5:11 pm

So basically, the GOM is out of the question and it looks to be a East coast issue right??

obxhurricane · #194 Postby **obxhurricane** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 5:12 pm

Frances will not track through the Caribbean...or the NE Caribbean. North of the Islands.

I keep seeing threads saying ...westward shift...more westward shift.

I see the globals continuing to take the storm NW and then back to the wnw...which has been the model consesus the entire time. With that said...the 12Z GFS is considerably further west and closer to the Islands...but it still brings the center north of the Islands. Finally...I see the BAMMS are moving the storm due west after a brief NW motion...righ into the Islands. That looks like bunk. I still feel confident Frances will miss the Islands...but the SE coast needs to stay on top of this one. And yes...you folks in the Islands too until she clears your longitude. But it's going north of ya...

#195 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 5:14 pm

nikolai wrote:I have 3 hurricanes in mind when I think of this one. In order of which one I think the track may be like 1)Floyd, 2)Andrew, 3)Isabel.

I hope we are wrong but I though the same, if the reintensifying high pressure goes behond that what is expected a westward track after 20º N is not out of the question. Let see what happens, as always, wait and see. 8-)

#196 Postby **Trader Ron** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 5:15 pm

Someone on a Cruise board said emphatically that Frances will miss the Islands.
I said..Don't be so sure...

lilbump3000 · #197 Postby **lilbump3000** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 5:15 pm

We all really dont know were this system is going. It hasnt moved like the national hurricane center thought it would. Yesterday by this time today they had it somewere near the 12N or 13N. But the system is still in the 11N range. So i say we will just have to wait and see.

Guest · #198 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 5:17 pm

I do think it will hit the U.S. At least if it hits, there will be a good reason for retiring the name. Assuming it hits the U.S, hopefully it goes into France and knocks over the Eiffel Tower

.

#199 Postby **MGC** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 5:18 pm

Francis may clip the northern islands at most. But the odds of a island landfall look remote at this time. She should feel the forecast weakness in the ridge to her north. At most it should only provide a small turn to the NW and later resume a more westerly track. Might make life interesting along the EC but it is too early to tell.....MGC

Website · #200 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 5:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm noticing how remarkably similar the pattern is to when Isabel was in the same location last year. Remember we had that weak frontal low "Hermine" sitting off the Carolinas (as the low there now is)? Isabel was forecast to be a "fish" at first, but it missed the front connection and turned back west. Frances isn't going to get dragged north by that first front. Odds of that are pretty low now. It's moving considerably faster and farther south than the NHC forecast. Our track is now 150+ miles south and about a day ahead of the NHC track, taking the center into the northeast Caribbean on Tuesday.

Beyond that point, it's a question of when the NEXT front will begin drawing Frances northward as it nears the Bahamas. Could still turn north before the east coast, definitely. But a NC hit would be my best estimate now.

That was Henri. Hermine is on the list this year. :wink:

I'm noticing that too. Isabel was just a couple of degrees farther north at this point(it started at 14 N/38 W)

Frances Advisories

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