Frances Advisories

[wxman57]

Frances will not track through the Caribbean...or the NE Caribbean. North of the Islands.

I keep seeing threads saying ...westward shift...more westward shift.

I see the globals continuing to take the storm NW and then back to the wnw...which has been the model consesus the entire time. With that said...the 12Z GFS is considerably further west and closer to the Islands...but it still brings the center north of the Islands. Finally...I see the BAMMS are moving the storm due west after a brief NW motion...righ into the Islands. That looks like bunk. I still feel confident Frances will miss the Islands...but the SE coast needs to stay on top of this one. And yes...you folks in the Islands too until she clears your longitude. But it's going north of ya...

I'd like to hear why the storm won't move through the NE Caribbean, not just that the models are "bunk". Have you been comparing model forecasts to the actual track over the past 3 days? Did you notice that the vast majority of models have been way too slow and way too far north since the weekend? For example, the tropical and dynamic models from 3 days ago had Frances stalling near 40W on Friday/Saturday. Well, it's at 41W already and shows no sign of slowing below 18-20 mph. That's been the trend all season - faster and farther south. I tracked it all day and the lastest estimate was 18 mph almost due west from 17Z-20Z. It's not turning WNW-NW at that speed. Clearly, whatever most of the dynamic models are looking at for initial conditions out there is wrong.

Frances won't even see the trof over 1000 miles to the north. Sure, it may slow down a bit in 48-72 hrs, but the islands of the NE Caribbean better prepare for a direct hit or a VERY near miss. And that may come nearly a day earlier than they may be thinking.

[cycloneye]

Agree Chris with your take.I think the northern leeward islands will see or a direct hit or a brush.By looking at the track Frances continues to take this evening I guess that NHC will continue to shift the track further to the left.

[wx247]

Howdy Frances. How are you? Stay away from Puerto Rico, ok? Just play with the fishies in the ocean.

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_132l.gif

[Matthew5]

That looks about what the current movement kind of shows. 18 mph to the west. But over all might even still be slightly more left? But we will see! But it also forms another system around 35 west so that worth watching.

[Vortex]

Also notice decent ridging over western atlantic and eastern seaboard which would continue a wnw motion for several more days.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_150l.gif

[cinlfla]

[quote="Vortex"]Also notice decent ridging over western atlantic and eastern seaboard which would continue a wnw motion for several more days.


Can you please explain why it would be moving wnw instead of staying on a westerly track.
Cindy

[obxhurricane]

I'd like to hear why the storm won't move through the NE Caribbean, not just that the models are "bunk".

I said the BAMMS from the 18Z run looked like bunk to me. Plotted out on paper they look like bunk to me. It's my opinion. The global models have all been consistent in developing the weakness in the ridge...that is a fact...and that has not changed today. The UK...NGP...and GFDL...all turn the system in 24 hours to the NW...and all track Frances well away from the Islands. This to me...seems like the correct solution based on everything we know at this time. Just becasue the notoriously shifty GFS shifts suddenly to the NE Caribbean doesn't make it set it stone. The model consensus is still well away from the Islands.

[vacanechaser]

My thoughts are an east coaster... The GFS showed an Isabel like track last night... Then it went into the Gulf just like it did with Isabel... Now it is trying to come a little further north... Just like Isabel... See a pattern here??? The GFS, as bad as I dog it, nailed Isabel in the begining last year.... It may have something this time...

Remember, last year during the Isabel track, we had a the left overs of Henri sitting off the coast.. We have a system sitting down there now... Not saying anything will develop from it, but that could help frances stair steep her way across the atlantic... Just something to chew on... The pattern has been similar to this time last year.... Hmmm...

[EDR1222]

Maybe the east coast, but since there is no east coast trough in the near future and strong high pressure likely to elbow into Florida, probably not anywhere north of the sunshine state.

Just a guess! Hope I am wrong.

[Anonymous]

I think it will be like Isabel, Andrew, and Floyd. They say it might recurve, so that is a big problem. Maybe Frances will get retired for a good reason other than France being dumb.

I'm thinking Frances, is mad because it is being retired for no reason. So its going to find a reason!

I'm starting to think that as well.

Yeah true---its supposed to be retired this year anyway---how Ironic-lets hope it dont get retired for another reason.... I vote it will hit the east coast as well---Hope I am wrong but as Brent Mentioned.... Isabel, Andrew, Floyd and dare I say Dora all turned NW then turned back West... On the Florida Times (jacksonville) hurricane chart, they have Andrew, Floyd and Dora's tracks pre-printed on the Chart-- What striking similarities and People from south Fla Northward and maybe even the Gulf should keep an eye on the future Eye of Frances.

[HeatherAKC]

Urm...my hubby, who knows nothing about weather and could hardly care less, saw the storm on TV during the evening news and...without even hearing the discussion said............., "That is for sure an Andrew storm".



I told him to bite his tounge!!!!!

[wxman57]

My thoughts are an east coaster... The GFS showed an Isabel like track last night... Then it went into the Gulf just like it did with Isabel... Now it is trying to come a little further north... Just like Isabel... See a pattern here??? The GFS, as bad as I dog it, nailed Isabel in the begining last year.... It may have something this time...

Remember, last year during the Isabel track, we had a the left overs of Henri sitting off the coast.. We have a system sitting down there now... Not saying anything will develop from it, but that could help frances stair steep her way across the atlantic... Just something to chew on... The pattern has been similar to this time last year.... Hmmm...

Hey! I said the same thing in another thread. Eerie how we have such a similar setup to Isabel.

[wxman57]

I'm noticing how remarkably similar the pattern is to when Isabel was in the same location last year. Remember we had that weak frontal low "Hermine" sitting off the Carolinas (as the low there now is)? Isabel was forecast to be a "fish" at first, but it missed the front connection and turned back west. Frances isn't going to get dragged north by that first front. Odds of that are pretty low now. It's moving considerably faster and farther south than the NHC forecast. Our track is now 150+ miles south and about a day ahead of the NHC track, taking the center into the northeast Caribbean on Tuesday.

Beyond that point, it's a question of when the NEXT front will begin drawing Frances northward as it nears the Bahamas. Could still turn north before the east coast, definitely. But a NC hit would be my best estimate now.

That was Henri. Hermine is on the list this year.

I'm noticing that too. Isabel was just a couple of degrees farther north at this point(it started at 14 N/38 W)

Oh, well, what the He....

[wxman57]

I'd like to hear why the storm won't move through the NE Caribbean, not just that the models are "bunk".

I said the BAMMS from the 18Z run looked like bunk to me. Plotted out on paper they look like bunk to me. It's my opinion. The global models have all been consistent in developing the weakness in the ridge...that is a fact...and that has not changed today. The UK...NGP...and GFDL...all turn the system in 24 hours to the NW...and all track Frances well away from the Islands. This to me...seems like the correct solution based on everything we know at this time. Just becasue the notoriously shifty GFS shifts suddenly to the NE Caribbean doesn't make it set it stone. The model consensus is still well away from the Islands.

Hunches are ok for this board, but let's say you had a billion dollar customer on a certain island in the NE Caribbean who's paying you thousands of dollars to attempt to avoid spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day if a certain major oil refinery has to shut down. All that and more is riding on your forecast. You have to rely on more than a hunch. If you speak of the models, then take a look at past performance of the UK, NGP, GFDL, and GFS. To a tee, they've forecast Frances to stall near 40W THIS WEEKENE then turn NW. Well, Frances blazed by 40W at nearly 20 mph today and is moving nearly due west. The models continue to get it wrong with Frances, as they have with many systems this year.

Now I'm not sure what's going on out there this season, but clearly the models are not seeing the true steering levels of these disturbances/storms. They're moving much faster than the models forecast, and staying farther south. It's quite noteworthy that the BAM models are now indicating that Frances will stay south of 17N before reaching the Caribbean. That indicates that the weakness in the ridge to the north isn't now extending far enough south to grab Frances. Latest projections show the bottom of the trof down only to about 34N-35N - way too far north to influence Frances. Steady east-west 500mb flow (though somewhat lighter) is indicated on days 3-5.

So while I'm not sure that the center of Frances will actually track right across the northern Islands (yet), it's certaily a good possibility given the current faster and far left of NHC forecast track. But I'm telling that certain customer on an island in NE Caribbean to prepare for possible hurricane conditions on Tuesday.

[Rainband]

As long as it stays away from Florida we need a break.

[obxhurricane]

To a tee, they've forecast Frances to stall near 40W THIS WEEKENE then turn NW. Well, Frances blazed by 40W at nearly 20 mph today and is moving nearly due west.

It should be noted that Frances is not that far removed from 40 W. Perhaps the slowing of motion, and expected turn, will commence this evening. In fact...I could make an argument for a slight northward component this evening on satellite imagery. Let's see what happens tonight and tomorrow. Until then, from one forecaster to another, I'd tell your client not to worry...at least not yet.

[obxhurricane]

Hot off the press the 18Z GFDL...which continues to take Frances North of the Islands...



From coldwx.bos.nemas.net #1 Weather Processing Computer...WHXX04 KWBC 252331
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 25

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.5 39.8 275./14.9
6 11.9 40.7 295./ 9.4
12 12.3 41.7 291./11.4
18 13.0 43.0 299./14.0
24 13.7 44.0 303./11.7
30 14.3 45.1 299./12.4
36 14.8 46.1 297./11.4
42 15.2 47.2 290./11.2
48 15.8 47.9 309./ 8.3
54 16.2 48.5 304./ 7.6
60 16.6 49.2 301./ 8.0
66 17.2 49.7 317./ 7.2
72 17.6 50.3 306./ 7.3
78 18.0 50.8 309./ 5.5
84 18.3 51.4 302./ 6.7
90 18.7 51.9 303./ 5.8
96 19.1 52.4 307./ 6.5
102 19.4 53.0 300./ 6.0
108 19.6 53.8 288./ 8.4
114 20.1 54.6 301./ 8.5
120 20.5 55.4 296./ 8.7
126 20.8 56.2 289./ 8.2



NT5-061503-IW33-BOS - MFD

[caribepr]

Hess Co. are SO on top of potential disaster (St. Croix, lived there 10 years) as are so many here on Culebra (and on the big island, no doubt), they prepare early on and know it may happen and it may not, but be prepared. Because I am leaving tomorrow early thirty I've spoken to or emailed everyone I could here and on other islands (VI's) and they already know and are ready, bonded by knowing what can happen. Talked to the woman who runs my local little store and reminded her of the lumber outside, she was all, "OH! si!" and her husband went outside...
Bottom line - ain't no place to run to, so whatever happens happens, "prepare for the worst, hope for the best." Usually I'm calm about it, but not being here...argh. Ran into a friend who was in the states taking care of a relative, and he flew home early because this is his home and when I told him I had to leave (funeral) he just hugged me and said, change your tickets if you have to...you need to be home with us. It's a weird head in the islands... so send Frances north! Wanting to come home to, yep, we missed it again!

[MGC]

Notice all those closed isobars behind Francis? Could be very busy in the Atlantic soon.....MGC