Frances Advisories

[abajan]

In Barbados, TV weather news tonight says it will bypass the islands and be no threat to land.

They usually use a crystal ball.

LOL

It always amuses me when our weather presenters say with such certainty that these systems will bypass the islands. I sometimes wonder if they were drinking or something.

I think Frances will miss the islands too but weather is a very uncertain science.

[Renata]

They prepare the weather around 2 or 3 pm so they always using "old" information. Our weather people are still in prehistoric times when it comes to weather.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

still time to adjust farther west if necessary

[Nimbus]

Thanks Cycloneye! I always value your 2 cents worth at a favorable currency exchange rate.

[dixiebreeze]

Seems like a pretty sensible forecast, Derek.

[Derek Ortt]

its too early to be sounding alarm bells for the carib islands yet. This thing is 5 days away at the very least. No need to forecast a landfall, changing the track 800 miles in just 12 hours as I could end up just having to adjust it back tomorrow

[wxman57]

Frances continues to track nearly due west a 15-18 mph. If it's going to miss the islands it needs to begin a WNW-NW turn pretty soon. At the speed it's moving, it's not likely to turn much. And there's no sign of a slow-down. It's already well south of the last NHC track, and a good bit faster. I'm not so sure that maintaining a consistent forecast (as the NHC is doing) in the face of increasing evidence that the forecast may be out to lunch is doing the residents of the NE Caribbean much good. At it's faster movement, Frances could be there on Monday or even late Sunday.

Latest GFDL is already 6 hours too slow to start out with. One good thing is that if Frances keeps blazing along then it won't be able to organize as quickly.

[Derek Ortt]

I only made the 1.5 south and 2.5 west due to the amount of time. Had this have been closer to the islands, I likely would have went 20N and 60W at 120 hours.

[obxhurricane]

Obxhurricane the Gfdl is putting it at 39.8 west?

That was the 18Z initial coord...

[ncweatherwizard]

I'm not buying into this yet...I believe there will be a westward component, but as to how much I'm not for getting carried away yet.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

[Windsong]

The Ships model weakens it after 96 hours...

WOW, 1 whole knot.

[corpusbreeze]

I have no idea but would love to hear the opinion of others on this board. OK I have an idea it could make the GOM , but only the Eastern side of it.

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Frances Advisory Number 5

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2004

...Frances over the tropical Atlantic...no immediate threat to
land...

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm
Frances was located near latitude 11.8 north...longitude 41.7 west
or about 1340 miles...2155 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

Frances is moving toward the west near 16 mph...26 km/hr...and a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...11.8 N... 41.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Frances Discussion Number 5

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2004

Satellite images this evening show little change in the overall
cloud pattern of Frances. Banding features have not become more
pronounced...and Dvorak T-numbers remain at 2.5 from all three
agencies...so the intensity remains at 35 kt for this advisory.
Upper-level outflow is well-defined except to the east and vertical
shear should remain low along the path of the tropical cyclone for
the next 2-3 days. So...in spite of the recent levelling off in
the development of the tropical cyclone...intensification is
likely. Later in the period...the upper-level winds may become
less favorable as increasing westerly shear is indicated by the
latest ships output for 96 and 72 hours. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and to ships...as well as
the FSU superensemble.
There has been a slight slowing of the forward motion...now 280/14.
A mid-latitude 500 mb trough is forecast to drop into the central
Atlantic over the next couple of days. This feature is certainly
at too high a latitude to directly impact the steering of Frances.
However...the trough weakens the subtropical ridge to the north of
Frances which should cause a further slowing of the forward speed
and a gradual turn to the right. Amongst the guidance suite...two
tracks...the GFS and the U.K. Met...are outliers. The GFS is well
to the south and west of the other dynamical models whereas the
U.K. Met. Is well northeast of the consensus. The official track
forecast lies between these extremes and is very similar to the
latest GFDL...GFDN...NOGAPS...and conu consensus forecasts.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/0300z 11.8n 41.7w 35 kt
12hr VT 26/1200z 12.5n 43.8w 45 kt
24hr VT 27/0000z 13.5n 46.0w 50 kt
36hr VT 27/1200z 14.5n 47.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 28/0000z 15.5n 49.0w 60 kt
72hr VT 29/0000z 17.3n 51.5w 70 kt
96hr VT 30/0000z 19.0n 54.0w 80 kt
120hr VT 31/0000z 20.5n 56.5w 80 kt

[c5Camille]

i think it's going to become cat5 and hit miami... then back out
and still cat 5 hit jacksoneville... head southwest and emerge
in the gulf as a cat2 but quicky regain cat 5 status. Then go to
new orleans cat5... then back up into the gulf... still cat5... goes
to houston and rakes the coast down to corpus then back into the
gulf.. still cat5... then heads strait for tampa... but at the last moment
it swerves south and comes ashore near ft myers... after that...
i have know idea... it's hard to forcast beyond 2 weeks...

[ga_ben]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200406.disc.html

[dixiebreeze]

NHC Discussion:

Tropical Storm Frances Discussion Number 5


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2004


Satellite images this evening show little change in the overall
cloud pattern of Frances. Banding features have not become more
pronounced...and Dvorak T-numbers remain at 2.5 from all three
agencies...so the intensity remains at 35 kt for this advisory.
Upper-level outflow is well-defined except to the east and vertical
shear should remain low along the path of the tropical cyclone for
the next 2-3 days. So...in spite of the recent levelling off in
the development of the tropical cyclone...intensification is
likely. Later in the period...the upper-level winds may become
less favorable as increasing westerly shear is indicated by the
latest ships output for 96 and 72 hours. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and to ships...as well as
the FSU superensemble.
There has been a slight slowing of the forward motion...now 280/14.
A mid-latitude 500 mb trough is forecast to drop into the central
Atlantic over the next couple of days. This feature is certainly
at too high a latitude to directly impact the steering of Frances.
However...the trough weakens the subtropical ridge to the north of
Frances which should cause a further slowing of the forward speed
and a gradual turn to the right. Amongst the guidance suite...two
tracks...the GFS and the U.K. Met...are outliers. The GFS is well
to the south and west of the other dynamical models whereas the
U.K. Met. Is well northeast of the consensus. The official track
forecast lies between these extremes and is very similar to the
latest GFDL...GFDN...NOGAPS...and conu consensus forecasts.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/0300z 11.8n 41.7w 35 kt
12hr VT 26/1200z 12.5n 43.8w 45 kt
24hr VT 27/0000z 13.5n 46.0w 50 kt
36hr VT 27/1200z 14.5n 47.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 28/0000z 15.5n 49.0w 60 kt
72hr VT 29/0000z 17.3n 51.5w 70 kt
96hr VT 30/0000z 19.0n 54.0w 80 kt
120hr VT 31/0000z 20.5n 56.5w 80 kt

[Rainband]

The Ships model weakens it after 96 hours...

Isn't ships usually conservative

[corpusbreeze]

i think it's going to become cat5 and hit miami... then back out
and still cat 5 hit jacksoneville... head southwest and emerge
in the gulf as a cat2 but quicky regain cat 5 status. Then go to
new orleans cat5... then back up into the gulf... still cat5... goes
to houston and rakes the coast down to corpus then back into the
gulf.. still cat5... then heads strait for tampa... but at the last moment
it swerves south and comes ashore near ft myers... after that...
i have know idea... it's hard to forcast beyond 2 weeks...

I though of the same thing myself but was affraid to admit it. The only difference I think it could be a super cat 10.

[PurdueWx80]

i think it's going to become cat5 and hit miami... then back out
and still cat 5 hit jacksoneville... head southwest and emerge
in the gulf as a cat2 but quicky regain cat 5 status. Then go to
new orleans cat5... then back up into the gulf... still cat5... goes
to houston and rakes the coast down to corpus then back into the
gulf.. still cat5... then heads strait for tampa... but at the last moment
it swerves south and comes ashore near ft myers... after that...
i have know idea... it's hard to forcast beyond 2 weeks...

LOL

[PurdueWx80]

The Ships model weakens it after 96 hours...

Isn't ships usually conservative

No, but Brent is.