Frances Advisories

[Steve]

That's always a possibility LaBreeze.

Good point 57.

Steve

[Fego]

I think that if Frances is over 12N at 5am, that's a good news for us in the Caribbean. Since 5pm she changed from 270 to 280, and right now is a little bit slow. Computer models are trying to predict what mother nature want to do... so.. time will tell.

[TS Zack]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

[mobilebay]

Frances looking better by the minute. Based on IR imagery Frances has become much better organized this Morning. However we all know IR Imagery can be very decieving.

[Matthew5]

A small cdo has formed over the last few hours. With perfect outflow on the west,southwest,northwestern quads. While the storm still has only poor to fair outflow on the eastern quad. Also to note is a small pin point hole forming around 12.3/42 at this hour moving west with a every so slightly north of west. Nrl information also sees kind of a eye like future but is not closed as of this moment.

[george_r_1961]

Last time I checked theres a trough digging down near 60W down to about 25N. The trough may not pick up Frances but even if it doesnt it will create enough of a weakness in the ridge to allow Frances to turn to the NW. And a NW course this far east tends to indicate a recurving storm..or in storm2k parlance..a fish.Of course if the weakness closes up or the trough lifts out then Frances could resume a more westward course. But at this moment in time im not buying into that scenario. By early next week perhaps we should know if there is a threat to the US.

[Fego]

I can assure you guys that at least one of our tv met, (Ada Monzon-Univision Channel 11) is the most reliable because, and more important, she is a met. She used to work at the NWS in San Juan. BTW she said during her forecast at 6pm that she is not comfortable with the NHC's forecast track. We must stay in alert.

[Fego]

Just a light comment

My model, which is a rock hanging from a rope, says that Frances will hit all three scenarios!... Caribbean, GOM and East Coast. Hey my model is accurate!!.. when is wet I know is raining; when is white I know is snowing; when is swinging I know is the wind is blowing... and jejejeje... when rock is gone? its a hurricane!!!

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Ada Monzon is a pro. And Weather Channel's hurricane guru was pointing out they were now thinking a treck closer to the NE corner of the Caribbean. We got to watch.

[NorthGaWeather]

I'm not buying a fish storm right now. This trough is not gonna have much of an effect. Besides Frances is at 12 N and even if it made it that far south Frances would still be far enough South to miss the trough and with a high building back over the area a West course will begin.

[Matthew5]

The system looks much more organized this morning. Convection is now wraped around the center with great outflow this morning. A eye appears to have formed. It kind of looks like it with the convection around it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[James]

She is looking pretty good at the moment. I wonder whether the storm has strengthened much.

[Fego]

That's true.. I also wonder about her movement.. to me looks like a west more than a nw... We need Frances turn north before de 60...

[Matthew5]

Nrl says 50 knots/998 millibars!

[Anonymous]

HEY!!! Just wanted to announce.. Mike Watkins said he thinks hurricane by 5am Friday. I say hurricane before or by 11pm tonight.

[Matthew5]

26/0615 UTC 12.4N 42.8W T3.0/3.0 FRANCES

[Thunder44]

It will probably be 60mph at 5am. Models initialized at 6z at 50kts winds, 998mb pressure

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

[Bluefrog]

[Cookiely]

I bet this will be a hurricane by eleven tonight.

[Cyclone Runner]

At the rate it has built overnight, I reckon that Frances may be well on its way to retiring her name in her own right. Maybe she knows the French are getting rid of her, and she wants to make one last stand