Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
Thursday August 26, 2004 5am
DISCLAIMER: Use NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Frances has continuted to show signs of strengthening and is now up to 60 mph and 996 MB. I see no reason for the time being for the storm not to increase to hurricane strength later today.
The movement is west-northwest at 15kts. I expect this motion to continue for the next 72 hrs. After that, I expect a ridge of high pressure to build back in to push Frances west. However, this is considering the trough has a lesser impact on the ridge and Frances.
As for intensity, the current jump from 40 to 60 mph has caused my "3am thinking" intensity forecast to be raised greatly. I am forecasting a major hurricane in 5 days. Some shear may come into play in the 3-4 day timeframe. However, I think only minor/no weakening of Frances will occur. To be conservative, I will have Frances slightly weaken then begin to intensify again as she moves west.
NOTE: I do feel that Frances may end up becoming an extremely dangerous hurricane down the road. I hope all people from the islands to North Carolina AND EVEN Bermuda watch this potentally dangerous storm.
Forecaster Naso
12 HRS-- 70 kt
24 HRS-- 80 kt
36 HRS-- 95 kt
48 HRS-- 100 kt
72 HRS-- 95 kt
96 HRS-- 95 kt
120 HRS- 100 kt
