Lets talk worse case scenario

[caneman]

Looking at the 5:00 discussion, it looks a little ominous. Worse cae scenario would be lnadfall between Ft. Lauderdale and Daytona as a major Hurricane and not only creating a new disaster but also adding to the misery of Central/SW Floridians, Lets hope this doesn't happen but folks Florida has gotten off easy compared to say pre-70 when hurricanes both minor and major struck far more frequently.

[ericinmia]

that is true, back in the beginning days of miami storms rolled through almost bi-anually, with quite a few majors.

lol, just curious... how'd you come up with ft.lauderdale as your lower bounds? This thing is still very far south, of cuba... let alone the bahamas, puetro rico, etc.

[Deenac813]

Looking at the 5:00 discussion, it looks a little ominous. Worse cae scenario would be lnadfall between Ft. Lauderdale and Daytona as a major Hurricane and not only creating a new disaster but also adding to the misery of Central/SW Floridians, Lets hope this doesn't happen but folks Florida has gotten off easy compared to say pre-70 when hurricanes both minor and major struck far more frequently.

bite your tongue! Hopefully this thing will not come anywhere near us down here. besides the fact there are tons of people down here, all of our insurance adjustors, FPL people etc are on the other coast!

[Tip]

Although it isn't a real match to your scenario, the 06z GFS paints a pretty ugly one.

For amusement purposes only!!!!


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_312s.gif

[caneman]

that is true, back in the beginning days of miami storms rolled through almost bi-anually, with quite a few majors.

lol, just curious... how'd you come up with ft.lauderdale as your lower bounds? This thing is still very far south, of cuba... let alone the bahamas, puetro rico, etc.

Just an early guess based on the system getting lifted NW and then a turn back to the West. And also based on the clustering of Alex, Bonnie and Charley. Really still too far out to know for sure buy just an early guess.

[AussieMark]

Palm Beach area could be a potentially devastating scenario.

also.

[Guest]

This could be Floridas year. 2 major hurricanes, 1 state . The worst case scenario isn't Fort Lauderdale or Palm Beach, its what Andrew didn't do. Hit Miami head on! This storm is alot bigger than Charley or Andrew too.

[AussieMark]

This could be Floridas year. 2 major hurricanes, 1 state . The worst case scenario isn't Fort Lauderdale or Palm Beach, its what Andrew didn't do. Hit Miami head on! This storm is alot bigger than Charley or Andrew too.

If it even got anywhere near the size of Floyd it wouldn't need to hit Miami head on to devastate the area.

[The Dark Knight]

We will see.....

[GrimReaper]

Caneman, with due respect, let's NOT imagine worse case scenarios!! It is way too early to begin this wild guessing game on potential landfall areas. Speaking from the experience of two weeks ago, for Jacksonville, Fl, the track waffled back and forth every couple of hours. First, we are going to get 100mph winds, then only 20mph wind, then 50mph winds....so on and so on. By the time Friday rolled around, we were sick of it hearing about it here, and nobody believed anything the weather services were saying!!! I personally think this kind of early, inaccurate guessing makes people more likely to ignore a REAL warning, should it come. I know that's how I feel, and you'd think I'd be the first to run, living directly on the ocean here, and after my experiences with Andrew!!!

I know people enjoy projecting, predicting, and outright -removed- but I've seen it make people indifferent to the factual reality, when it does occur.

---Just Grim's opinion!!!

[caneman]

Caneman, with due respect, let's NOT[b][u]imagine worse case scenarios!! It is way too early to begin this wild guessing game on potential landfall areas. Speaking from the experience of two weeks ago, for Jacksonville, Fl, the track waffled back and forth every couple of hours. First, we are going to get 100mph winds, then only 20mph wind, then 50mph winds....so on and so on. By the time Friday rolled around, we were sick of it hearing about it here, and nobody believed anything the weather services were saying!!! I personally think this kind of early, inaccurate guessing makes people more likely to ignore a REAL warning, should it come. I know that's how I feel, and you'd think I'd be the first to run, living directly on the ocean here, and after my experiences with Andrew!!!

I know people enjoy projecting, predicting, and outright -removed- but I've seen it make people indifferent to the factual reality, when it does occur.

---Just Grim's opinion!!!

I'm not predicting anything, I'm saying this would be a worse case scenario. And for your information, the information the masses were getting on Charley ,I can assure wasn't from this weather board or others but rather what was feed to them by local and national mets. And further, if some one sees a pattern set up, which many have here, that would potentially send the system West, it is perfectly ok to comment on it. May I suggest you get further info from your local weahter guy rather than here . MAny time patterns are identified here well before the NHC gives s the info. I was in Kissimmee when Charley came rolling thru and have been thru many systems so I can assure you I'm not -removed- . I happen to believe this will be a heavy landfall year and Florida is starting to get back into a more landfall frequency cycle.

[Three Blind Mice]

If and I do mean if Frances were to hit FL or the Carolina coast the power problems so many have noted here from Charley would be exacerbated. Progress Energy crews have been moved from our area to FL. 2 of these storms in a month could be a real economic crisis. Best advise be prepared as best you can.......now! Less stress

[caneman]

If and I do mean if Frances were to hit FL or the Carolina coast the power problems so many have noted here from Charley would be exacerbated. Progress Energy crews have been moved from our area to FL. 2 of these storms in a month could be a real economic crisis. Best advise be prepared as best you can.......now! Less stress

That is all this posted started out saying, is that God forbid, if this did come a calling to Florida as a major. We are ill prepared as American Red Cross, Salvation Army, power companies, etc.... are already stretched thin. I can tell you from first hand experience that is the case. Just the afternoon variety thunderstorms are creating problems for people trying to re-build.

[GrimReaper]

You are fast on the uptake, Caneman!!! You posted a reply faster than I could take off the bold/underline, after I realized I did it!!! LOL Anyway, please do not take offense.....I was NOT criticizing anyone, least of all you, and I never said YOU were a wishcaster. For the record, I respect the opinions posted here at S2K far more than anything on TV, you guys always seem more accurate. I was merely stating that hearing all this so early on usually makes one FEEL indifferent, not well informed!! Especially, the "old-timers" around here, who are constantly saying " we haven't had a 'cane here in a zillion years..yada yada". I just fear it makes newer residents of Florida, expecially the North East Coastal area, just ignore possible warnings.

Again, Caneman, I repect your opinions and posts!!! My reply was strictly a FEELING in response to so much early information!!
OK???
-Grim

[jlauderdal]

This could be Floridas year. 2 major hurricanes, 1 state . The worst case scenario isn't Fort Lauderdale or Palm Beach, its what Andrew didn't do. Hit Miami head on! This storm is alot bigger than Charley or Andrew too.

Andrew didn't hit Miami head on...it hit Homestead head on which is well south of Miami. If it downtown Miami head on it would have been much more of a problem. The airport, coral gables, little havana, aventura would all have sustained heavy damage and the infrastructure would have been a much bigger issue than a hoemstead hit.

[caneman]

You are fast on the uptake, Caneman!!! You posted a reply faster than I could take off the bold/underline, after I realized I did it!!! LOL Anyway, please do not take offense.....I was NOT criticizing anyone, least of all you, and I never said YOU were a wishcaster. For the record, I respect the opinions posted here at S2K far more than anything on TV, you guys always seem more accurate. I was merely stating that hearing all this so early on usually makes one FEEL indifferent, not well informed!! Especially, the "old-timers" around here, who are constantly saying " we haven't had a 'cane here in a zillion years..yada yada". I just fear it makes newer residents of Florida, expecially the North East Coastal area, just ignore possible warnings.

Again, Caneman, I repect your opinions and posts!!! My reply was strictly a FEELING in response to so much early information!!
OK???
-Grim

I apologize for over-reacting. I truly feel that this will be a year of more landfalls. I guess it is already but even more is that I fear Florida is heading into a cycle, like many cycles in the past of more landfalls. It has been quite a while since we were last in that cycle. I just fear one more major hit in Florida, as there is still plenty of time in the season, would cause major problems. Inusrance costs, jobs, economy, tourism, etc...... Have a great day.

[TLHR]

History has shown us (Floyd springs immeditely to mind...) that whenever someone says a storm is going to hit Florida, it winds up hitting SC or NC.

Now. You want to talk about a worst-case scenario. Thanks to our lovely President and his Iraqi folly, 75% of all SC emergency generators are in Iraq, as are 50% of Natl Guard bulldozers. (Source: Post & Courier.) Not to mention all the National Guard men and women who are stationed over there.

Arrrrgh! Sorry to be so political this morning...

[Guest]

I have been saying all along that this will likely NOT be a florida cane, although I am not discounting that option - I really think that a ridge is going to build in the atlantic forcing this storm into the mid atlantic or carolinas, then up and out near cape cod. For some reason I do not believe the GFs are doing very well with upper level features in high latitutdes....

[GrimReaper]

Absolutely!!! I have a sinking feeling you are correct about this "trend" for Florida. I could not even imagine being without poser (ha power) for even a day where I am now!!

On the other side of the picture......I own several semi-trucks...they make big money after a hurricane. Two of my trucks have been running everything from water (out of Coca-Cola, Jax) to huge generators from Atlanta. I don't know how I feel about making money off of people's tradgedies, but good reliable transportation is a necessity for all emergency supplies. One of my trucks pulled directly on to a runway in Lakeland next to a C-131 out of South Carolina, to load emergency supplies for Punta Gorda, the runways down there obviously were blocked!!

[caneman]

History has shown us (Floyd springs immeditely to mind...) that whenever someone says a storm is going to hit Florida, it winds up hitting SC or NC.

Now. You want to talk about a worst-case scenario. Thanks to our lovely President and his Iraqi folly, 75% of all SC emergency generators are in Iraq, as are 50% of Natl Guard bulldozers. (Source: Post & Courier.) Not to mention all the National Guard men and women who are stationed over there.

Arrrrgh! Sorry to be so political this morning...

This isn't a correct statement. While yes the Carolinas may have been the recipient of their fair share of storms in the last 10 or so years, if you go back 100 + years, Florida gets hit more often. I would rather go on 100+ years of climatology rather than just 10.