7:00 AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE, AUGUST 26, 2004

[vbhoutex]

7:00 AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE
THURSDAY, AUGUST 26, 2004

Tropical storm Frances continues moving on a West-Northwest track through the Eastern Atlantic at around 17 mph. She is expected to continue this motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next 24 hours. This slowing is expected in response to a weakening of the subtropical ridge to her North and could result in a more Northwesterly course for a while until the ridge begins to fill back in and once again push Frances back to a more Westerly or West-Northwesterly track. Frances is located at 12.6N, 43.7W or about 1195 miles East of the Lesser Antilles. As Frances continues to organize her winds have increased to 60 mph with some higher gusts. If she continues the expected strengthening trend Tropical Storm Frances will become Hurricane Frances later today or tonight. Currently tropical storm force winds extend up to 70 miles from the center of Frances. The central pressure is estimated at 996mb or 29.41". Convection associated with Tropical Storm Frances has continued to organize around the center with banding features beginning and good outflow in all quadrants. Some indications were seen on the visible satellite imagery that an eye may have been trying to form earlier. If this is indeed the case and an eye is forming, then winds are probably higher than currently estimated. Conditions in front of Frances continue to be favorable for more strengthening. The only thing that might inhibit Frances from continuing the strengthening trend would be if she turns more toward the Northwest than expected in response to the digging trough and the weakening of the ridge expected due to the troughs approach and enters into a less favorable upper-level wind environment. Due to the continued West-Northwest tracking of Frances and the probability that she will continue mostly on this track and possible begin an even more Westerly track in the future all interests in the Northern Leeward Islands and Lesser Antilles need to closely monitor the progress of Frances.

Off the Southeast coast of the United States a weak low pressure area and associated areas of convection have formed along an old frontal boundary. No development is currently expected from this system.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone development is not expected in the Atlantic Basin through Friday.

This is NOT an OFFICIAL product of the NHC. For OFFICIAL products contact the NHC or your local weather offices.

By David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)

[Roxy]

So...do you think Texas will see any action?

I know it's too soon to tell, but I had to ask.

[vbhoutex]

Roxy, you are right it is way too early to tell. The models continue to go back and forth with their tracks as is normal this far out-at least a week before a US threat-so it is difficult to "pinpoint" any call at this time. When Frances gets closer to both the islands and then the US it will be much easier to make a prediction because at that point we will know two things essential to forecasting a path for a storm. 1. We will know the strength, which dictates which upper level wind fields direct the storm. and 2. We will know what the incoming conditions to the North and West of the system will be.

Currently, I put the chances around 40/60 of Frances getting into the GOM and around 60/40 of a US landfall somewhere. Unfortunately IF there is a landfall on the US mainland it could be another major, at least Cat3, due to the very good conditions out in front of Frances. I would not be surprised to see Frances go to hurricane status later today.

[Roxy]

wow, if it gets into the gulf, then I will worry.