lol anyone in south FLA/GOM wanna mess their pants...

[ericinmia]

First let me prefice this with...
I know this is REALLY far out!

However the fact that GFS is showing it is worthy of something...
Lets see if this trend persists.

I came across this link while browsing through the hundreds of gfs files on the noaa server...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Yikes...
This simply means everyone be ready like you were supposed to already!
Get things together again....

I went through Andrew... and actually enjoyed it
{My great grandpa wrote the first building code in the country after he saw how storms were demoliting miami.... needless to say my house is a fortress! }

I would like a cat 1, or tropical storm for the fun of it, however another Andrew or the like, and the impact it would have on the already beaten west coast, makes it catastrophe for too many.

Stay safe everyone...
-Eric

[ericinmia]

Sorry for the poor grammar, etc. been up all night writing software.
lol

this gfs run looks eerily like Andrew's

don don daaaaa... hahaha

sorry i'm loosing it, i need sleep...

-Eric

[AussieMark]

it looks very similiar to Andrew.

How is GFS on storms tracks anyway.

was it accurate with Charley from this stage in charleys life.

[ericinmia]

it looks very similiar to Andrew.
How is GFS on storms tracks anyway.
was it accurate with Charley from this stage in charleys life.

Its not the greatest. However its a good global model for predicting general weather conditions, like high's and low's...
^ this is my understanding, but i'm no met.

it still is predicting conditions, favorable for that scenario to occur, so it bears watching carefully...

-Eric

[AussieMark]

I can remember so many Hurricanes in recent years were supposed to strike Florida hard.

Georges
Floyd
Debby
Isabel

[ericinmia]

lol yeah...

everyone is becoming so complacent... its sad.

you might have to edit your list soon, to add dear old francis!

Damn i hope i don't have to put shutters up for nothing again.
(it takes 5 people about 24hours) - A LOT of windows

-Eric

[Dean4Storms]

This is a possible scenario with Frances and another good time and an excellent reason why everyone who lives near coastal communities should be ready with a hurricane plan of action if one threatens you.

Remember some of the earliest runs with Charley showed a strong TC coming northward up through the GOM and toward the Panhandle of Florida. Eventually the models were not all that far off when you stop and think about it.

[BayouVenteux]

Well, if the GooFuS is depicting a central GoM destination for Frances at 348h, I'd be stocking up on plywood and provisions right now if I live in in the Carolinas.

[AussieMark]

the Carolinas have seen "F" storms in recent years.

"Fran"

and

"Floyd"

[sunny]

I don't like this one. Too close to Andrew's path. Florida definitely does not need this. The last time New Orleans dealt with a Frances was in 98, we got 23 inches of rain - and she went into Houston.

[Yankeegirl]

Well I am not too sold on the East coast getting this mess... I am still thinking more of a Westward movement... Idont know why... Just a gut feelin'

[BonesXL]

This storm is not cool, I live in Miami and I have reservation for a labor day weekend cruise to the Bahamas. I hope Francis stays away.

[Brent]

Well, if the GooFuS is depicting a central GoM destination for Frances at 348h, I'd be stocking up on plywood and provisions right now if I live in in the Carolinas.

LOL! So true.

Take this GFS run with a grain of salt.

[rbaker]

let's don't forget, this storm is currently 1300 miles from the islands and another 1100 from miami, thats 2400 miles. We are looking at labor day forecast, which is over a week away. I would not put too much emphasis on a track thats over a week away, let alone 5 days, and all you have to do is look at the general left turns each model runs have done in the last 48 hrs, which is two days.

[tropicsgal]

Speaking of Frances hitting the east coast , she is a ways out but what are the chances of her turning back west and coming between the Florida Keys and Cuba and into the Gulf Of Mexico? I'm a little cocerned.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Well, if the GooFuS is depicting a central GoM destination for Frances at 348h, I'd be stocking up on plywood and provisions right now if I live in in the Carolinas.

A done deal, my friend!

[cape_escape]

Speaking of Frances hitting the east coast , she is a ways out but what are the chances of her turning back west and coming between the Florida Keys and Cuba and into the Gulf Of Mexico? I'm a little cocerned.

Me too!!!

[Josephine96]

Just remember.. Charley was a Cat 4 when he hit our West Coast and a 2/3 as he slowly made his way up Central Florida..

Us Floridians will probably be watching the rest of the season on pins and needles

[tropicsgal]

I do remeber Andrew crossing South Florida and getting into the Gulf , then hitting Louisiana. So devastating. Just never know with these storms.

[Josephine96]

Us here in Central Florida don't need this either.. To get hit by 2 hurricanes in the same season would not only devistate more of the landscape.. but it would cause more prolonged power outages and hot tempers to boot