Frances Advisories

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's certainly stronger than it was early this morning. If this doesn't become a hurricane by 11 am, then definitely by 5 PM most likely. We're up to 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 majors as of right now. We'll likely have to change that hurricane stat later today if not within the next hour.

Jim

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

the news just keeps getting worse

[rbaker]

plus getting over warmer and warmer ssts, with no shear for the forseable future, I say 90 mph hurricane by this time tommorrow.

[WXBUFFJIM]

I could use a coffee anytime, especially early in the morning. That projection and my 50 cents is a very good price tally Certainly while it's too early to tell, it's quite possible it could strike anywhere along or near the southeast U.S. coast by the Labor Day Weekend. It's definitely worth pinpointing this possibility given this is a heavily travelled weekend coming up during this time of potential landfall.

Jim

[c5Camille]

Ha... no worries... i haven't had mine yet... brewing
as we speak. It's just funny when you see posts like
"is this stomr coming into lake michigan" or something
like that... when the storm is 10 days from land...

i think what they mean is "what do you want" not
"what do you think"

[x-y-no]

Uh-oh ...

First time in the box (tracking SW of 60W 20N)

[Stormchaser16]

Couldnt agree with you more....... and yes those posts are quite funny. Dont know if you were around reading the board when the guy from the midwest was here forecasting systems, he used a certain little "color code" to denote systems and their possible impacts. It was quite entertaining when you heard code magenta for the east coast, let alone having it come from someone sitting back in the midwest......

[c5Camille]

HA...
ahhhhhhh... now that's a cup of coffee!
i hope i have time to finish this cup and
grab a smoke before this hurricane hits!

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Ouch. This is getting way too similar to a Georges scenario

Go trof! Go trof!

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

brings the system to 100 KT in about 2 days.

[Derek Ortt]

yeah, this one really defied the models (and we should have learned our lesson from charley that sometimes the models make up the met as they go, lol)

[PuertoRicoLibre]

The most recent forecasts and reasoning by Derek and now MW are quite similar. If that verifies, in particular in the case of MW's forecast it looks like we are going to have hurricane winds affect quite a lot of the Leewards and at least TS force wind gusts on the north coast of Puerto Rico (San Juan is at 18.4N and 66W).

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 7

Statement as of 15:00Z on August 26, 2004

tropical storm center located near 13.1n 45.0w at 26/1500z
position accurate within 25 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 15 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 990 mb
Max sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
50 kt....... 30ne 20se 20sw 30nw.
34 kt....... 65ne 50se 50sw 65nw.
12 ft seas.. 70ne 70se 70sw 70nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 13.1n 45.0w at 26/1500z
at 26/1200z center was located near 12.8n 44.3w

forecast valid 27/0000z 14.0n 47.0w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 35ne 25se 25sw 35nw.
34 kt... 70ne 50se 50sw 70nw.

Forecast valid 27/1200z 15.2n 49.2w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
34 kt... 80ne 65se 65sw 80nw.

Forecast valid 28/0000z 16.4n 51.1w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 40se 40sw 50nw.
34 kt... 90ne 80se 80sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 28/1200z 17.5n 52.3w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
50 kt... 55ne 55se 55sw 55nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 29/1200z 18.6n 54.0w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
50 kt... 55ne 55se 55sw 55nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 30/1200z 20.0n 57.0w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Outlook valid 31/1200z 21.0n 61.0w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.1n 45.0w

next advisory at 26/2100z

forecaster Stewart

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Frances Advisory Number 7

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 26, 2004

...Frances getting stronger over the open Atlantic...could become
a hurricane later today...

at 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Frances was
located near latitude 13.1 north...longitude 45.0 west or about
1105 miles...1775 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr.
This general motion is forecast to continue today...with a gradual
decrease in forward speed expected by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
Frances could become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 75 miles
...120 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...13.1 N... 45.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[c5Camille]

zoinks!!

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Frances Discussion Number 7


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 26, 2004



Frances has become much better organized during the past 12 hours...
as noted by the tight coiling of both the inner and outer
convective bands...and an occasional hint of a banding eye feature.
A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of t3.5 was obtained from
both TAFB and SAB. However...banding features and inner-core
convection have improved since the 12z fixes...so I have continued
the trend from the previous advisory of going slightly higher than
the satellite estimates are indicating. Upper-level outflow is good
in all quadrants and is becoming more circular.

The initial motion remains 290/15. Frances has basically remained on
track the past 24 hours. However...the NHC model guidance is not in
good agreement after 36 hours. The NOGAPS...UKMET...and ECMWF take
Frances more northwestward thoughout the forecast period...whereas
the GFDL...GFS...and the Canadian models take the cyclone more
west-northwestward and even westward. The main differences lie in
how much erosion of the subtropical ridge occurs north of Frances
in 36-72 hours as a large extratropical low off the Canadian
Maritimes digs southward. The UKMET and NOGAPS model show more
erosion of the ridge...while the GFS...GFDL...and Canadian models
lift out the upper-low more quickly...which allows the ridge to
build back westward to the north of the cyclone after 72 hours. The
past 24 hour trend in water vapor imagery suggests that the
upper-low has probably pushed about as far south as it can...which
would support the GFS-GFDL-Canadian scenario of a more westward
track by 96 hours. The past 4 GFDL runs have successively shifted
the track more westward with each run...while the GFS has a left of
track bias. Therefore...the official track was shifted slightly
left of the previous forecast and left of the latest GFDL run...but
not as far west or as fast as the GFS and Canadian models.
Frances may be on a fast-track in its development process...but I
would prefer to wait and see if any dry air on the east side gets
wrapped into the center. However...if a distinct eye appears later
today...then rapid intensification...and also making Frances a
major hurricane in 48-72 hours like the GFDL and SHIPS models are
indicating...will have to be considered on the next advisory.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/1500z 13.1n 45.0w 60 kt
12hr VT 27/0000z 14.0n 47.0w 70 kt
24hr VT 27/1200z 15.2n 49.2w 80 kt
36hr VT 28/0000z 16.4n 51.1w 90 kt
48hr VT 28/1200z 17.5n 52.3w 95 kt
72hr VT 29/1200z 18.6n 54.0w 95 kt
96hr VT 30/1200z 20.0n 57.0w 95 kt
120hr VT 31/1200z 21.0n 61.0w 95 kt

[Aimless]

I think it will become a fish, hit the east coast, or move into the Gulf... Hey.! I'm 100% accurate with that statement. It's too early to tell and you didn't give me a button to vote for :"I have no idea".

[flyingphish]

Yikes..If you are right.. this system will cross "The Square". I was really praying for a "fish" as this could be a large storm. You are making me nervous. Have too check in a little more often now. Thanks for forecast.(Though a wee bit disconcerting.)

[Stormchaser16]

Actually..... what if you went with the A9ae which turns it south towards south america?

[x-y-no]

The
past 24 hour trend in water vapor imagery suggests that the
upper-low has probably pushed about as far south as it can...which
would support the GFS-GFDL-Canadian scenario of a more westward
track by 96 hours.

Not good news.