Frances Advisories

rbaker · #361 Postby **rbaker** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 9:57 am

im not bragging, but i personally didn't think the trough would be there enough to put it out to a nw course 48 hrs ago. Having said that, I still am leaning towards the gfs and gfdl, which in stronger canes like this one is beginning to take shape, the gfdl has done not too bad. Latest ukmet is way to far right, and should have been on a nw track before it reached the 45 long line.

#362 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 9:58 am

Yes not a good scenario especially if it becomes a major cane close to the islands.

#363 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 9:59 am

Stormchaser16 · #364 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 9:59 am

Ahhhh your bragging lol... jk man

But yea, there was really no reason(as DT has been saying) to have believed that this storm would have been a fish as most globals began showing a VERY favorable pattern for an EC landfall a few days ago, and its coming to fruition.

c5Camille · #365 Postby **c5Camille** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:01 am

or move into the carib and disipate...
or turn around and go back to africa
or go south and be the very first storm
to cross the ITCZ... and hit Brizil! WOW
and then come back...

WXBUFFJIM · #366 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:01 am

.Frances getting stronger over the open Atlantic...could become
a hurricane later today...

The 11 am EDT position...13.1 N... 45.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.

Frances could become a strong hurricane over the next 2 days with winds over 110 mph. However 110 mph maybe a conservative estimate if this thing takes a more westerly track later in the period. It could easily exceed 120 mph as seen by some of the computer models such as the ships for instance. The track takes this system north of the Lesser Antillies through Tuesday. Then there is a possibility with a subtropical high developing north of the tropical cyclone that Frances could track further west later in the forecast from midweek and beyond. This could have further implications on the Labor Day weekend along the eastern seaboard. While this is just one possibility, the models are tending to favor this subtropical ridge solution beyond 72 hours, meaning a westward track towards the eastern seaboard. I would advise anyone vacationing along the eastern seaboard during the Labor Day weekend to watch this situation very closely. This could potentially become a dangerous threat later next week into the Labor Day weekend.

Jim

cape_escape · #367 Postby **cape_escape** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:02 am

I don't think I ike what I'm reading here! Maybe I should make plans to visit friends and family back up in Ohio until Hurricae Season is over!!!

cape_escape · #368 Postby **cape_escape** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:03 am

Thats just great!!!!!

Stormchaser16 · #369 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:03 am

lol..... so i guess that statement by him was about 20% accurate in covering all the possibilities.....

Id be very interested to see it go trans-atlantic, then have some gargantuan ridge in Europe develop and start pushing it back then have some trough move westward as the magnetic fields of the earth shift and pull it back towards the US......

WOW its time to lay off the 100% colombian caffeine

c5Camille · #370 Postby **c5Camille** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:04 am

it's coasta rican.... and yeah... maybe i should...

Stormchaser16 · #371 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:05 am

Actually can you go visit our buddy at the midwest hurricane center? You guys can coordinate a new color code system together lol.....

Cause we all know that if theres ONE place to have a hurricane center, its the MIDWEST /sarcasm off

That would be like trying to put a winter forecast for the east coast together while sitting in Jamaica

Stormchaser16 · #372 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:05 am

Oh no, im drinkin colombian and i was talking about myself

Stormchaser16 · #373 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:06 am

Ive also got this kenyan coffee here, its got a very unique and interesting taste to it, its actually a bit on the bitter side

#374 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:09 am

the big trough building from west to east might in the long run.

Look out Islands and S. Florida!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/NWATL/WV/20.jpg

Josephine96 · #375 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:14 am

Yeah.. it is.. NOT lol.. What do you guys think of Frances potentially having an effect on Florida..?

cape_escape · #376 Postby **cape_escape** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:16 am

I'm very interested in that too! Thigs are finally beginning to seem "somewhat" normal around here.... :cry:

Josephine96 · #377 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:17 am

I'm just curious about what you guys think about the possibility of Frances making the trek across the Atlantic and showing up on our doorstep here..?

Florida's already seen 2 storms this year.. a 3rd could do a lot more damage.

A lot of us will probably need weeks to clean up from Charley.. so I along with a few others are a tad bit uneasy that it's only the F storm and we've already been hit 1x..

Opinions wanted and welcomed

cape_escape · #378 Postby **cape_escape** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:19 am

God I hope not!!!!

#379 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:20 am

Only time will tell.....

cajungal · #380 Postby **cajungal** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 10:20 am

Read a statement from the NHC that Frances could be a major cane in 48-72 hours. Also, the scary thing is that the models are pushing this thing more and more westward with each run. May not be a fish afterall.

Frances Advisories

Frances at 70 mph. Some interesting possibilities...

This trough Won't affect Frances, but.....

Will Frances be a threat to ravaged Florida..?

Frances could be a major hurricane in 48-72 hours!

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