Frances Advisories

[Josephine96]

My nervous post Charley monichar says Frances will give Florida a scare...

Plus thats part of my "wishcast" still talking lol.. Anyway.. on a more serious note.. The storm continues moving West..

The further West it goes.. the less chance of a fish..

Florida/Carolina's better be watching this closely..

[mf_dolphin]

Those that didn't get ready for Charley I hope are listening.

[Josephine96]

96 hours huh.. which means.. in 4 days it may still be moving West or so..

May spell trouble for us yet again depending how far it is..

[Josephine96]

Very true Cajun about the models.. We just have to watch and wait as it treks across and see where she ends up..

[jlauderdal]

This is my first comments on Frances. I have looked over everyone's comments, the models, NHC discussions, map projections and would like to make a suggestion.
I would like to suggest that we all begin a prayer for our friends in the Islands, then the Bahamas, and then the East Coast. If we only looked at historical data, we would list these people as in the highest risk. Then, those of us that live in hurricane prone areas should help reinforce to our media people that a projected path is a "WHOLE ZONE" and not one small target. Maybe, they will listen and help NHC get people to be ready.
As we all know, things can change overnight with these storms due to fluctuations that "I personally don't think we understand yet" and a path or more importantly an intensity can change.
Now, as for me, I am restocking my hurricane supplies for a 10 day period, from a 7 day period. If this thing gets as strong as it looks like it could and stays that way, help could be a long time coming.

Prayers never ever stopped a hurricane. What people should have already done is be ready with a plan. Its primetime and everyone needs to be ready and prepared and hopefully anyone in a cone or near one should prepare like they are getting the core.

[jlauderdal]

I agree 100% Tom! Everyone should be warned of an emergency situation! My prayers are with all of the islands, as well as the rest of the East coast!

There is no emergency and there won't be one if everyone does what they are supposed too. Preperation before Prayers is my motto.

[Josephine96]

Here in Central Florida we learned that just because a storm makes landfall to our south doesn't mean it can't cause wind damage here.. we got hammered..

Everyone from Florida on up needs to be prepared just in case.. It's common sense

[LCfromFL]

Okay....so WHEN might Frances pay a call on the EC (if, in fact she decided to do so)? Are we talking about mid to late next week? I'm in NYC today - where it seems that everyone is getting ready for the RNC (security is EVERYWHERE).

So imagine if you will....<dramatic pause> ....some idiotic terrorist striking NYC and the convention....AND....a major storm hitting the EC of the US

That would be the absolute worst possible thing for our beloved country.

(and no...I'm not borrowing trouble here - it was just a thought that popped in my mind).

[x-y-no]

Okay....so WHEN might Frances pay a call on the EC (if, in fact she decided to do so)? Are we talking about mid to late next week?

I'd say 6 to 10 days, the further north the later.

[Mattie]

The RNC is August 30 - Sept. 2 - so if we are talking about "hypothetical" hit on the East Coast, everyone better make plans to leave the convention early and drive/fly west or north. . . - and <dramatic pause> (just borrowing that - it was great!) - everyone will be so focused on a landfalling hurricane that no one will notice what the terrorists are up to. . .

[frederic79]

Mike,
Back on Monday you said you weren't buying the recurvature notion. It just took awhile for others to catch on. Thanks for the great analysis.
-Ed

[Josephine96]

True Mattie

[Brent]

Looks like a late next week or Labor Day Weekend storm(September 2nd-September 6th).

[ncweatherwizard]

I'm still right of most of the guidance, and a little faster than it, but I have pushed the end of the forecast track to the right, and straightened the earlier times into a smoother path. Didn't seem like it yesterday, but if this track verifies, yesterday's errors won't be extremely large in reality.

Meanwhile, this track keeps the storm clear of the Bahamas for the seven to eight day range, but if the speed verified it would turn near 70W as indicated in the forecast...and so on; anyway, here's the forecast: long, somewhat detailed, somewhat general

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

[Brent]

Cat 4?

[ColdFront77]

As of 11:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time, the center of Frances was about 2,610 miles ESE of me and about 2,440 miles ESE of Miami, Florida.

[ChaserUK]

Yikes - is that not somewhat rapid development?

[rainyday]

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/us/hurricane.html

[B-Bear]

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/us/hurricane.html

I have a very unscientific gut feeling that this thing is going to be a minor hurricane by the 5 pm report, and then explode overnight.

In the morning, there will be a lot of on the board.

[rbaker]

this is old news 2 hrs old