NHC Track Map

[Josephine96]

Forgive me if I'm wrong.. but I just looked at the NHC's 5 day experimental map.. and it shows Frances maybe going WNW or NW for a little bit.. and then back to potentially a due west path..

If this track holds up and Frances does continue to push further west.. it could possibly strike South Florida or even go into the Gulf..

[c5Camille]

i think it's going to become cat5 and hit miami... then back out
and still cat 5 hit jacksoneville... head southwest and emerge
in the gulf as a cat2 but quicky regain cat 5 status. Then go to
new orleans cat5... then back up into the gulf... still cat5... goes
to houston and rakes the coast down to corpus then back into the
gulf.. still cat5... then heads strait for tampa... but at the last moment
it swerves south and comes ashore near ft myers... after that...
i have know idea... it's hard to forcast beyond 2 weeks...

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/projected.html

[Josephine96]

LOL I think we already have that thought established

[c5Camille]

you keep asking the same question...
hence.. the pat answer... at least when we
are talking about 10 days out...

[Dean4Storms]

That is a possibility at this point but it is still far out and alot of uncertainties with the eventual track lie ahead. Any weakness to the subtropical ridge (although I don't see any) and this baby turns out to sea, otherwise there is still plenty of time to see just what the future holds for Frances.

[Rainband]

Our local said the same thing wnw nw then w

[x-y-no]

LOL c5Camille ...

When it actually does that, you're going to look like a genius!

[Josephine96]

Thank you for your words Dean..

[Tip]

Interestingly, the SHIP and DSHP intensity models now decrease the storm winds after 72hrs.


040826 1200 040827 0000 040827 1200 040828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 44.3W 14.0N 47.1W 15.2N 49.7W 16.3N 51.8W
BAMM 12.8N 44.3W 14.1N 47.0W 15.4N 49.5W 16.5N 51.6W
A98E 12.8N 44.3W 13.6N 47.2W 14.3N 50.1W 15.3N 52.7W
LBAR 12.8N 44.3W 14.1N 47.0W 15.4N 49.5W 16.3N 51.6W
SHIP 60KTS 75KTS 86KTS 93KTS
DSHP 60KTS 75KTS 86KTS 93KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040828 1200 040829 1200 040830 1200 040831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 53.7W 18.3N 56.5W 18.5N 59.4W 19.0N 62.3W
BAMM 17.4N 53.5W 18.3N 56.3W 18.6N 59.2W 19.3N 62.1W
A98E 16.3N 55.0W 17.1N 59.5W 16.1N 63.8W 13.9N 67.7W
LBAR 17.1N 53.5W 17.5N 56.4W 17.2N 59.9W 18.3N 63.6W
SHIP 98KTS 103KTS 97 KTS 90KTS
DSHP 98KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS

[BocaGirl]

i think it's going to become cat5 and hit miami... then back out
and still cat 5 hit jacksoneville... head southwest and emerge
in the gulf as a cat2 but quicky regain cat 5 status. Then go to
new orleans cat5... then back up into the gulf... still cat5... goes
to houston and rakes the coast down to corpus then back into the
gulf.. still cat5... then heads strait for tampa... but at the last moment
it swerves south and comes ashore near ft myers... after that...
i have know idea... it's hard to forcast beyond 2 weeks...

Hey Camille, you and I both know that it's hard to project correctly what a storm will do in the next 24 hours, let alone in the next 2 weeks. I mean, look at Charley's path......

However, lots of folks are going to come by here in the next week or so and ask the impossible question. Your little pat scenario is cute, but it's sarcastic and not helpful.

We've all seen it now-Cat 5-Miami-Jax-New Orleans, yada yada-

Time to give it up and go on to something useful. You are wasting valuable bandwidth. The people asking the question aren't going to stop becuase you are showing them the error of their ways. How about giving us your real forecast or sharing some personal preparedness tips.

Just my 2 cents.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[JTD]

i think it's going to become cat5 and hit miami... then back out
and still cat 5 hit jacksoneville... head southwest and emerge
in the gulf as a cat2 but quicky regain cat 5 status. Then go to
new orleans cat5... then back up into the gulf... still cat5... goes
to houston and rakes the coast down to corpus then back into the
gulf.. still cat5... then heads strait for tampa... but at the last moment
it swerves south and comes ashore near ft myers... after that...
i have know idea... it's hard to forcast beyond 2 weeks...

Hey Camille, you and I both know that it's hard to project correctly what a storm will do in the next 24 hours, let alone in the next 2 weeks. I mean, look at Charley's path......

However, lots of folks are going to come by here in the next week or so and ask the impossible question. Your little pat scenario is cute, but it's sarcastic and not helpful.

We've all seen it now-Cat 5-Miami-Jax-New Orleans, yada yada-

Time to give it up and go on to something useful. You are wasting valuable bandwidth. The people asking the question aren't going to stop becuase you are showing them the error of their ways. How about giving us your real forecast or sharing some personal preparedness tips.

Just my 2 cents.

BocaGirl
Barbara

Agreed. Nothing against you at all camille, but time to give it up.

I write this with no malice or even anger, just simply stating the facts.

[Trader Ron]

WOW !!:)

[c5Camille]

my reply is in response to the same question
over and over and over again...
"when will this storm hit my house and how strong
will it be when it hits..."
it's the same question asked 4 different ways already..
i'm not creating the treads... just replying to the
same question... over and over and over again...

[B-Bear]

my reply is in response to the smae question
over and over and over again...
"when will this storm hit my house and how strong
will it be when it hits..."
it's the same question asked 4 different ways already..
i'm not creating the tread... just replying to the
same question... over and over and over again...

I'm not being critical, by any means, but it's not the same person asking the same question over and over. People are just a little anxious, and a lot of them (including myself) are novices looking for information. Please be patient with us. Sarcasm doesn't help us learn, and only causes us to have to repeat our questions looking for the answers.

[Mattie]

Guys - a little humor in the long range "who really knows" forecasts circulating right now is not a bad thing. Surely people aren't expecting that posts this early will be seen next week for anyone unless they are looking historically. And then - what's that worth to them?

No one has definite answers about anything - which is proven by the "wobble/turn" topic and they are looking at every longitude latitude line trying to make some sort of educated guess. If anyone knew for sure - there would be no need to that topic either.

That's my 2 cents in defense of someone enjoying the board.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

o.k....everyone...breathe deep......lol

[Rainband]

Everybody just have respect and enjoy the site. If you follow those two premises you be fine.