Frances Advisories

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Yikes - is that not somewhat rapid development?

ChaserUK....You coming back to the states this year??....lol

[ncweatherwizard]

Yikes - is that not somewhat rapid development?

It's a substantial amount of development--rapid...not what I would call it--but rather steady. After all, it is four days, so 50kts isn't really ridiculous.

But--nonetheless, it's strong--and it really does hinge on the shear values late.

[Stormsfury]

Or the dry air trying to wrap around on the north and around to the western side ... which also might be enhancing deeper convection around the eyewall at this time ... but it should be able to fight that off in the next 24 hours or so ...

Outflow is becoming much better defined, especially on the western semicircle ...

SF

[cape_escape]

Ok...does this mean its possible that it could move into the Gulf? I'm sorry, I'm very bad with directions...never been one of my strong points.

[WXBUFFJIM]

That could mean big trouble somewhere along the eastern seaboard sometime around the Labor Day Weekend. That combined with last minute summer vacation plans to the beach, best bet is to keep watching this tropical cyclone before even venturing out to the eastrn seaboard Labor Day Weekend.

Jim

[ColdFront77]

Read a statement from the NHC that Frances could be a major cane in 48-72 hours. Also, the scary thing is that the models are pushing this thing more and more westward with each run. May not be a fish afterall.

There was never much indication that Frances was going to move out to sea.

[Guest]

My nervous post Charley monichar says Frances will give Florida a scare...

Plus thats part of my "wishcast" still talking lol.. Anyway.. on a more serious note.. The storm continues moving West..

The further West it goes.. the less chance of a fish..

Florida/Carolina's better be watching this closely..

As should mid atlantic and new england. nearly half of the 16 CMC ensemble runs 00z last evening bulled this hurricane into this area, or near here, around 240 hrs. I dont necessarily agree with this but it's not out of the realm of possibility, if not more likely than any other scenerio

[Guest]

As Mike knows, this has been my concern for days of the trough not picking up Frances! As I mentioned one night in Team Speak when I jumped in then out, the MRF has been consistant.
Good job Mike, I would think a smidge north 22N, and a little east 63W. This is of course no consolidation to anyone in the Islands, the Bahama's, and areas further west!
Mike I would like you to be available this evening during the show with Tony Cristaldi!!!

[Pebbles]

This is just a guess after looking around a bit....and if I am wrong..something to add to my crow a meter *winks* Think it will give Florida a good scare before curving and smacking SC.

[ColdFront77]

I wouldn't call it old news, it is important existing news that means a lot to the future of this system... a true indication of a hurricane later today.

[Guest]

I see a more threat now for the northern leeward islands as I doesn't appears by looking at the movement that it is gaining much latitud.Also an eye feature pops out and goes away.

Any long-term preliminary thoughts yet? I'm thinking {STRONGLY DEPENDANT ON RIDGE BEING STRONGER THAN PROGGED} that she flirts with Fl/GA coast most likely FL..

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!

[Pebbles]

Looking at the models I just don't think this will be picked up and recurve anytime soon. Between gut feeling and the NHC shifting every forcast to the left ... and models ...going to take my first stab at a long term, little educated, thoughts here. It's going to head west under a ridge and possibly get picked up by a trough outside the models current range and ride the coast a bit. It may be a fish or hit land, my very wild guess on that is in another thread. Just posting this to see what pans out and see if what I've observed the past couple years has taught me anything. So please take this with a grain of salt.

[ColdFront77]

Quite a poll... it actually got 80 votes so far. It must be one of the sites best polls.

[LCfromFL]

I know it's all a guessing game - or rather a 'wait and see game'. But - as we like to remind folks - not all storms curve out to see...and not all hit the Carolinas.

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[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Not directly, anyway

[Guest]

Long-term GFS which is bunk of course shows her hitting SC and turning north through Mid-Atlantic.

[MWatkins]

Yep...70 knots:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR.0408261846

MW

[chris_fit]

Already???

[MWatkins]

Yep...no question about it...we will have a hurricane at 5PM. Technically...we already have one.

MW