NHC Forecast Track, and the MRF!

[Guest]

The NHC forecast track has been consistant with the changes in the MRF. This is not a good thing for the Northeast Islands, andn the Bahama's and areas further west, Florida.
WE will however be looking for a slight shift further south of this track, if this occurs, then the Islands are in a serious situation.
I have been watching the MRF for 6 days, as well as the other models, and the consistancy of the MRF is rattling my nerves.
AS for the GFS and MRF also developing other systems behind Frances, it is very very likely at this point!
I am afraid we could see yet another Florida landfall, followed by yet another. We must not jump the gun, and let the NHC handle the forecasts, and issuing of watches and warnings should they need to be posted.
I urge all to check their supplies as a precaution, for maybe our time has come!!
MRF:
http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/mod ... 2i&C1=pmsl
This forecast model has been extremely accurate in past years, this is why I continue to use it. This is the same model I used with Allison, Lili, Debby, and many more. Not saying this model is perfect, but in the long runs, this model has performed rather well with a developed storm.
Listen in tonight during the Barometer Bob Show at 9pm/edt when I have Tony Cristadi from the NWS Melbourne, and an update from FEMA on the recovery efforts after Hurricane Charley.

[PurdueWx80]

Just in time for Labor Day Weekend!

[jlauderdal]

Just in time for Labor Day Weekend!

Yep. 1935 was the Keys Labor Day storm. A cat 5 that killed 400. i have been by the monumnet they have in the keys for this event. and i am supposed to go to key west for labor day? will it be a vacation or a stormchasing trip..time will tell.

[Derecho]

AS for the GFS and MRF also developing other systems behind Frances, it is very very likely at this point!

The GFS and MRF are exactly the same thing.

There are a variety of websites (like UWYO) that have never bothered to change the names of their pages from the MRF to the GFS.


The MRF hasn't been called the MRF since 2002.

[Guest]

I have seen this partidular model from WYO show tracks completely different then the GFS. So I would guess the changes of the input makes a difference.
Just a guess, but I'm not totally sold on the GFS=MRF when it comes to WYO.Edu

[Dean4Storms]

AS for the GFS and MRF also developing other systems behind Frances, it is very very likely at this point!

The GFS and MRF are exactly the same thing.

There are a variety of websites (like UWYO) that have never bothered to change the names of their pages from the MRF to the GFS.


The MRF hasn't been called the MRF since 2002.

I was about to reply with this Derecho, The GFS is also combo'd with the AVN I believe.

[Guest]

the mean solution of the MRF, i wouldnt put money on that.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... opnew.html

this may be more helpful

[Derecho]

I have seen this partidular model from WYO show tracks completely different then the GFS. So I would guess the changes of the input makes a difference.
Just a guess, but I'm not totally sold on the GFS=MRF when it comes to WYO.Edu

I asssure you that any output anywhere on the internet of anything called the MRF is IDENTICAL to the GFS from the same time. Any perceived differences would result from the choices for distance between isobars, colors, etc. from website to website.

That is, if you look at the 0Z "MRF" at UWYO, it will be IDENTICAL IN EVERY WAY to the 0Z GFS at, say, the NCEP site. other than the way the webmasters of each site chose to use colors, etc.

There has been NOTHING called the MRF run by NOAA since 2002. In 2002 the MRF was changed to simply the 0Z AVN, and then a few months later the name of the AVN was changed to the GFS.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS ... anges.html

"04/23/2002 00Z: MRF is replaced by the 00Z AVN. Look-alike MRF grids will still be available daily for several months on th ftp server at ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/mrf/para/

Sept-Oct 2002: Name changes: The AVN will be referred to as the Global Forecast System model (GFS). "

[Stormcenter]

The NHC forecast track has been consistant with the changes in the MRF. This is not a good thing for the Northeast Islands, andn the Bahama's and areas further west, Florida.
WE will however be looking for a slight shift further south of this track, if this occurs, then the Islands are in a serious situation.
I have been watching the MRF for 6 days, as well as the other models, and the consistancy of the MRF is rattling my nerves.
AS for the GFS and MRF also developing other systems behind Frances, it is very very likely at this point!
I am afraid we could see yet another Florida landfall, followed by yet another. We must not jump the gun, and let the NHC handle the forecasts, and issuing of watches and warnings should they need to be posted.
I urge all to check their supplies as a precaution, for maybe our time has come!!
MRF:
http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/mod ... 2i&C1=pmsl
This forecast model has been extremely accurate in past years, this is why I continue to use it. This is the same model I used with Allison, Lili, Debby, and many more. Not saying this model is perfect, but in the long runs, this model has performed rather well with a developed storm.
Listen in tonight during the Barometer Bob Show at 9pm/edt when I have Tony Cristadi from the NWS Melbourne, and an update from FEMA on the recovery efforts after Hurricane Charley.

Where on the Florida coast would the first landfall occur and where would the second? Thanks!

[Guest]

That would depend on how far north the storm actually gets before the turn back to the west 20-25N near 60 - 65W. This will make a difference between the Florida Straits, and North Florida. If no northwest track occurs, then it's an island storm. The GFS is leaning further west (left). We will know much much more in the next day or so, or when we see the northwest turn occur, if it occurs.
It's going to be a very long week next week for everyone!!