Frances Advisories

[chadtm80]

Yes Sir.. Hurricane Francis is here.. http://www.storm2k.org

[cycloneye]

TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040826 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040826 1800 040827 0600 040827 1800 040828 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.4N 45.7W 14.5N 48.0W 15.5N 49.9W 16.5N 51.5W
BAMM 13.4N 45.7W 14.5N 48.0W 15.6N 50.0W 16.5N 51.8W
A98E 13.4N 45.7W 14.6N 48.2W 15.5N 50.7W 16.3N 53.1W
LBAR 13.4N 45.7W 14.6N 48.1W 15.9N 50.2W 16.9N 52.0W
SHIP 70KTS 82KTS 91KTS 94KTS
DSHP 70KTS 82KTS 91KTS 94KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040828 1800 040829 1800 040830 1800 040831 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 52.9W 18.0N 55.6W 18.7N 58.9W 19.8N 62.0W
BAMM 17.2N 53.3W 17.5N 55.9W 18.0N 59.2W 19.1N 62.3W
A98E 16.7N 55.5W 16.3N 60.5W 14.7N 65.4W 12.6N 69.8W
LBAR 17.5N 53.4W 17.6N 56.8W 17.2N 61.1W 18.1N 64.8W
SHIP 97KTS 100KTS 96KTS 92KTS
DSHP 97KTS 100KTS 96KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 45.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 42.9W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 39.8W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 983MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 55NM RD34SW = 55NM RD34NW = 70NM

We have now hurricane Frances.

[JTD]

But, Cyclone, what about track? I can't really make heads or tails out of those numbers? Is it still generally west or do these runs show more of a fish scenario?

[Brent]

Hello Hurricane Frances!

[KWT]

wow that's fast!!!!!

[cycloneye]

Those tracks of the tropical model suite takes Frances just north of the islands.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow is right! This could be a first if Frances becomes a major hurricane, a distinct possibility, having 3 major hurricanes prior to September 1st.

[Brent]

But, Cyclone, what about track? I can't really make heads or tails out of those numbers? Is it still generally west or do these runs show more of a fish scenario?

Looks a lot like the earlier runs. Doesn't seem to show a fish anymore than it did earlier.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Now that she is a hurricane MW, will this intensification make her more likely to exploit any weakening in the ridge over the next few days?

I don't see anything that would greatly inhibit any intensification any time soon either, in fact, I wouldn't be suprised to see a big burst of energy manifest tonite. Don't systems typically seem to take a breather in the afternoons and then have their growth spurts at night out there? Diurnal something or other I think??? -obviously no pro here.

Another thing I was watching too... I saw that Denver was expecting some chilly weather. Whenever I see that, I assume a front is dipping down. Will this front be strong enough to come into the deep south and maybe affect a future Frances path once she starts rounding the western periphery of the High? -or is the next hypothetical front going to be the possible player in that scenario?

...if that is the scenario...

Hopefully this thing doesn't also criss-cross Florida and devastate another whole bunch of counties, including revisiting the ones already trying to recover!

[Stratosphere747]

Why are there only four models (BAMD,BAMM,A98e,and LBAR)??

Two show a more WNW movement even up to 120hrs

The other two even show a WSW!!

Or am I reading that wrong?

[Matthew5]

So if the Satellite is out how doe's the Nhc see this?

[Brent]

So if the Satellite is out how doe's the Nhc see this?

They have satellites we don't have access to. They also get more frequent images than we do.

[Nimbus]

Both the LBAR and the A98E now actualy track her south of due west after 48 hours. 12.6 N at 69.8W! wonder what you get when you toss that into the "MEDIAN".

[bbadon]

I find that funny. Had it not been for Charley these guys would not even think about giving this a mention.

http://www.yahoo.com/_ylh=X3oDMTB1M2EzY ... -/s/208975

[Matthew5]

That must mean that they are forecasting the high to get so strong that it knocks the storm to the south.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I used to post on GoPBI's board, starting back in 96 when I lived in NC, then again once I moved to FL. When the board structure changed, I came here to read all your enlightening posts and have been a voyeur here since then. I used to be StPeteGal or Chrissy8.

I love reading all of your posts and have been glad to see that there aren't so many bratty imature kids on this site like tha other had to keep contending with!

Hi MW, Barometer Bob, BocaGirl, CajunGirl, Derek & everyone else!!

[Hurricanehink]

Uh-oh. Please be a fishie! Please be a fishie!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Agree..All it does is strenghthen that this will go at least Due west for a period of time..Have seen it lots of times...

[daisy25]

I saw that on yahoo's home page. Think everyone is more consious for now after charley? daisy

[ChaserUK]

...... have their growth spurts at night out there? Diurnal something or other I think??? -obviously no pro here.

Yes I recently learnt that one too although I am a little unsure still about the effects if any of daytime heating. The night time burst are the result of a greater temperature gradient as the air above the sea cools down.