Frances Advisories

[Pebbles]

I don't think it's unusual...just a keep you eye on the tropics kinda thing. I think most people in hurricane prone area's tend to start watching them about this time. Not as much as most here but just a quick look every day or two to keep it in mind. Once it's within about 5 days of possibly reaching land is when the stories really start rolling.

[ChaserUK]

Actually we have been having our fair share of severe weather events this summer. The weather is nearly the top topic of discussion over here at the moment!

[Brent]

The diurnal maximum is at night, the minimum is the daytime, meaning typically systems look better at night.

[ColdFront77]

I am not surprised either. Charley was mentioned when it formed, like all other systems are on the cable news networks. There isn't much to report about storms this far east.

Even the typhoons in the western Pacific have been mentioned on Fox News Channel. There is only so much to report on a system over there. Should they cover the system for more than five minutes when it is effecting most of their viewing area- in this case the United States.

[KWT]

indeed Chaser,what with floods and torrential downpours and all that sort of things.

Winds are meant to gust to 70-80MPH tonight in northen Scotland

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Thanks Brent! I have actually noticed that storms seem to burst at around 10pm and then again they spurt at around 3 am and then level off or even die down again once the sun rises and the daytime heating begins. -seems like the opposite should happen if these things ar esupposed to feed on heat.

[cycloneye]

The organization of tropical storm Frances has been steady all day and this afternoon it has been upgraded to hurricane Frances.It has been moving 295 degrees in the past 6 hours and that motion is expected to continue for the next 24=48 hours as it feels a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a trough way to the north.However that break in the ridge will be temporary and the hurricane will resume a more west course.All interests in the northern leewards must be aware of the track just in case it deviates westward before it reach the latituds 17-18n so stay tuned.

Forecaster=Luis Martinez (CYcloneye)

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Anyone have any input on strength of Frances and whether that would help try and make her take a more northerly jaunt before coming to the west again?

Also... opinions abut approaching front that is in western US now, or possibly another behind that if you can see or have access to maps/graphics/info that can predict some of those things already! - for all you college mets out there!

[cycloneye]

They have available the meteo sat of europe.Notice that all the models take Frances south of 20n-60w.

[bahamaswx]

Interesting that they all take her south of 20N 60W.

[Brent]

Thanks Brent! I have actually noticed that storms seem to burst at around 10pm and then again they spurt at around 3 am and then level off or even die down again once the sun rises and the daytime heating begins. -seems like the opposite should happen if these things ar esupposed to feed on heat.

Once a system is a major hurricane(Cat 3 or stronger), that won't have much impact though. You can usually only notice the difference in weak systems up to a low-end hurricane.

[ColdFront77]

It is difficult to predict what the troughs/frontal systems will have on Frances. It is and will remain speculative even when more consensus is known. Tropical systems are the most difficult to forecast even hours (under 12+) before landfall... hint hint .. .. .. ..

[WXBUFFJIM]

I can rest assure the Islands appear to be just safely out of the woods, but barely. The same can be said for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. It's beyond that point from 72-96 hours and beyond when we need to more closely watch this given a possible track back to the west or west northwest and a stronger hurricane. This would be about 96 hours out and beyond.

Just glancing at the latest visible floater as of 1915z and this certainly represents a strong category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds at this point in time.

Check the floater image here folks, http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Jim

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I know that ColdFront! Charley was predicted to knock on my door...quite literally!...until a last minute turn into the penninsula south of here. I had an feeling it might do that and without wishing bad on anyone else, was hoping it would! Just in case though, we parked our cars in a garage in downtown St. Pete and hunkered down to ride it out. Good thing it didn't hit here...after a little longer over our warm waters, it may have reached Cat5 strength!

[ChaserUK]

Yes I saw that KWT - pretty unusual weather for August - again!

[ColdFront77]

Sorry, TreasureIslandFLGa. I was trying to be light of a serious event. By no means am I belittling what Charley did to many
across southwest and portions of central Florida.

I am very rarely, if ever a rude or upset at anyone, individuals or a group.

On the original forecast tracks, some more than others [they were all not too far off each other]... Charley would have given
my area quite a bit of wind and rain, too. I didn't get any more than a wind gust to 40 mph or so {and that's pushing it} and
just a little rain.

I am about 45 miles northwest of Orlando and about 75 miles northeast of Tampa.

[alicia-w]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html

This site may be useful for monitoring weather conditions in the islands as Frances approaches.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Oops! Sorry hon, that post came across as if I sounded mad! I was echoing your words, not arguing or making any nasty comment. More like..."hell yeah! I hear that! -after what I just went through..." haha.

My grandmother lives in Altamonte Springs and her area got pretty tore up from Charley's crossing. Here on my island, we didn't even see a breeze stronger than our daily seabreeze from Charley!

[PurdueWx80]

Now that GOES-E is back up, it looks as if Frances is undergoing impressive intensification. Deep convection has since popped up around the once visible dark spot/eye and outflow is expanding rapidly in all directions. As long as none of the dry air to the N and W of the storm gets entrained into the CDO, Frances may likely become a major hurricane by late tomorrow or Saturday.

[WXBUFFJIM]

San Juan, Puerto Rico is at 18.6 north. So it would most likely have to get north of 18.6 north to clear San Juan and most of the northern Leewards as well as the Virgin Islands as well. The southern edge of that cone of uncertainity does clip all of these areas. However assuming it takes a track right up the middle of that cone of uncertainity, the biggest worry from this hurricane in the northern Leewards and Puerto Rico will be high surf on the north facing beaches.

Jim