Frances Advisories

[Air Force Met]

Has a storm ever stayed below the 25n mark all the way to Mexico or S. Tex from the last model position?

Wishcaster

Not sure exaclty what you meant by last model position...so I'm not sure.

But...I can tell you about historical tracks given the current and 120 forecast locations.

From the 120 NHC forecast location, 9 storms in the past 140 years have made it into the GOM. 1 dove down into the Bay of Campeche...another one ended up in Brownsville. 2 Hit LA, 1 hit MS, 4 Hit the panhandle of Florida.

From the initial point, only 3 have made it into the GOM...but remember...this is from within 60 nm of that location.

One of those was Andrew.

[JTD]

If the extrapolated path holds up.. There could be more trouble for us Floridians here

Josephine, how are you holding up? I'd be close to the point of insanity if I knew a 2nd, possibly large, possibly category 4 hurricane was heading my way. Again!

Are you OK?

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

John..is never o.k.....when a storm is near..LOL...

[Anonymous]

KERRY AFTER A STORM:
OH MY. WAS THAT A HURRICANE? I FIND THAT DAMAGE TO BE VERY BAD. OH MY GOODNESS.





BUSH AFTER A STORM:
DAMN. THAT'S BAD.

[dixiebreeze]

LOL Chad..... Old habits are hard to break.

[Guest]

Thank you Sir, and I was referring to the last position indicated by the link dixiebreeze provided.

[Brent]

I did read somewhere today that as long as it is traveling slow (<35k) that it is unlikely that it will be directed to the East Coast, or if so, will weaken significantly because of the weather conditions it encounters off the east coast. (Just a novice being a parrot). . .

Wonder what history can substantiate that statement if any.

What the heck are they talking about? LOL! LOL! LOL!

Now, IF(and this is such a big IF) it went so far north(say from New Jersey up), the water IS much cooler and it would weaken, unless it really moves fast(which storms that far north typically do), however, anything over 20 kt is absurd for a hurricane, and it WILL NOT move that fast, unless it goes up the East Coast as I said.

[obxhurricane]

There were many believers last night...just curious as to how many are still believing...and why.

[Air Force Met]

Someone asked if storms make it into the GOM from where Frances is now. The answer is yes...but it has only happened 3 times. One of those times is Andrew.

At the 03z advisory on August 18, 1992 (UTC), Andrew was a 45 kt tropical storm...moving WNW under the sw side of a subtropical ridge. It was located at 14.2N, 47.1W, or only about 50nm NW of where Frances is now.

Of course...as we all know...Andrew was also facing down a break in the ridge and the NHC accurately forecasted it would not take that break...but would bend back to the west.

The rest is history.

I am not suggesting that this will happen again (a Cat 5 like Andrew), but just reminding people what can happen...and that Andrew was in this exact position...moving in the same direction (although a little faster) and also forecasted to turn more NW...then bend back to the west.

Florida and the SE US...take Note.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[southerngale]

If the extrapolated path holds up.. There could be more trouble for us Floridians here

Josephine, how are you holding up? I'd be close to the point of insanity if I knew a 2nd, possibly large, possibly category 4 hurricane was heading my way. Again!

Are you OK?

Well, your post should calm him down.

I'm kidding...I know you're just concerned.

[c5Camille]

i got my eyes peeled

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/ima ... rolina.jpg

[southerngale]

Dang AFM, a little disheartening but thanks for the comparison!

[Brent]

Sorry, I just can't stand it when people make absurd comments. There is no way this will be moving at more than 20 kt IF it hits below say, North Carolina or Virginia.

[Air Force Met]

Never thought it would...said it wouldn't (my worst case scenario was it clipping the Islands to the NE and N)...and I still don't think it will.

So...I'm not believing and I don't see anything to change my mind

[Mattie]

Here it is - I saved it as a "sticky" because it sounded odd -

ALL EC hurricanes can and DO fall part rather quickly if the forward or
Northward speed is under 35 mph. The slow forward speed enables the large
circulation of a TC along or Just off the EC to entrain large amounts of Dry
air which can result in rapid weakening. Recall Floyd... Gloria... Belle. This
rapid weakening (and in some cases outright Collapse) of the TC on the East
Coast is almost always missed by TPC and other forecasters

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[Brent]

I'm not sure. I'm not convinced either way. It all depends on how far north it is when it makes the west turn and if it will go WSW.

[jlauderdal]

Hi Dixie,

Channel 9's Tom Terry just showed a graphic depicting Frances going more westward after Tuesday. He said he doesn't like that...(nor will most Floridians) The graph did show the system north of the islands, however. The voice inflection he used when explaining her projected strength spoke volumes...

Check your supplies and replace what was depleted by Charley everyone. Frances or not, it's always a good idea.

Tom Terry is feeling real good about himself after his Charley forecast on Friday. Keep us updated on what he says. I like to hear wht these local mets are actually saying form different parts of the USA.